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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #3,981
  • May 2, 2007 9:23pm May 2, 2007 9:23pm
Looks very good long: G/U, but as you say, not much movement at the moment. Trouble with this pair, it's like holding a firework in your hand and wondering if it's still lit.
Gone to a better place
  • #3,982
  • May 2, 2007 9:33pm May 2, 2007 9:33pm
US/CH is trying to paint a TC. If it brakes the descending TL to the upside, and the MACD paints the TC, I will probably jump for a long on this one. The pair might test again the 365 MA as it did this morning.
  • #3,983
  • May 2, 2007 10:06pm May 2, 2007 10:06pm
Quoting alcastro
US/CH is trying to paint a TC. If it brakes the descending TL to the upside, and the MACD paints the TC, I will probably jump for a long on this one. The pair might test again the 365 MA as it did this morning.
I see what you're saying, but on my chart this looks a long way off.
Gone to a better place
  • #3,984
  • May 2, 2007 10:07pm May 2, 2007 10:07pm
Went long AUD/USD at 8GMT yesterday.
The next candle penetrated above 8 ema briefly and that was it. This pair is now steadily going down along 8ema. Closed with small loss.

I tend to agree with Josh. Nice looking RB of GBP/USD might end up the same way as AUD/USD, I guess. It looks the market is now already pre-NFP mode.
  • #3,985
  • May 2, 2007 11:25pm May 2, 2007 11:25pm
Alcastro and others, I noticed this system has not been giving very good signals to me the past month and a half (eur/usd especailly). How have you been doing trading it?
  • #3,986
  • May 2, 2007 11:39pm May 2, 2007 11:39pm
Hi guys & gals,

Still on vacation, but the forex addiction has not worn off...thought I'd do a bit of catching up on the thread....lots of interesting stuff!

Re: Swissie, I just wanted to post a few thoughts....Keep in mind we have Swiss CPI on tap tonight, Asia Market is very quiet thanks to Golden Week, The US stock market is hitting all time highs, and NFP is on Friday (I have a theory about currencies moving to give room for moves around Friday's number...Notice how G/U hasn't been able to move up sig. around the 2.0075 number (option barrier?) so the market moves down in order to move up if warranted on Friday...Just something to think about).

Now...for a lot of thought re:CHF....(I'm going to post over a few posts)...

First of all....the short yesterday couldn't have been more perfect....We hit significant res., and the pair was divergent. It had travelled up through the 89, past the 200 and touched the 365.....remember the rules...It will come back and re-test the 21 area after testing other MA's...especially, if it is changing direction (and we saw that last night (yup, 60 pips in my pocket thanks to an entry order placed in advance...gotta love vacation ).

Here is a copy of my chart...notice price closed above the 89....has tested the 8 - 21 area, and has closed above an upper TL (at ~ .2106....and above 200 MA (blue MA))...So a long w/TC is a good signal (even though, I'd rather see price retreat first, then go long...but that comes later)...

My hourly chart also shows price above the 89...which is obvious on the 4 hour because price is still above the 21.... and price is above support (longterm) of .2125....Next let's look at the daily chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,987
  • Edited 11:53pm May 2, 2007 11:51pm | Edited 11:53pm
Here's a copy of the daily chart....none of the trendlines are new....

Notice how price rejected at the .2192 area...and we have long term res. at .2205 (this goes back over a year).

Support too goes back to Oct. 2006....

& the pin from yesterday.....says that upmove could be a "lie."

Basically, IMHO, I think this pair is trying to decide what it wants to do right now....It really wants to start a new trend.....

The most important thing is to pay attention to Price Action...wait for a close above support w/MACD conf. for long.....or a close below Support w/MACD signal. Also, look for price action around the "important" s/r levels.

I'd love to see this pair fall back to the 89 before going long....or even better, back to daily support. A signal for a short, requires a stop above .2205 so think about r:r and where your targets are (again, I'd love to see price reject the .2205 w/TC down...but the market isn't always so giving).

No matter what...keep in mind the dollar data on tap over the next few days...and how it has been getting weaker and weaker per DAX (& could be bottoming)....

So what does this all mean? It means, don't "think" about what the market will do...let it "tell" you before you act. Wait for the levels you have Identified to be breached (w/close is better than just pierced in my opinion) and MACD to give you direction! We may even have to wait for next week for clearer signals, but isn't that always the case during NFP week?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,988
  • May 3, 2007 1:23am May 3, 2007 1:23am
I closed half of my position at the 8Ema which is also 38 fibo from the last up move - from 9.04.07. Moved the rest to BE and expect to see 9950
  • #3,989
  • May 3, 2007 1:52am May 3, 2007 1:52am
Quoting weghio
ok, so I went long on gbpusd too.
that and usdjpy short are my trades right now...neither price moving atm.
I'm still short on USDJPY from last night. Looks like price didnt do much whilst I was sleeping, thanks to not-so-golden week.

Still, it doesnt take much for the dollar to go down nowadays
If it's too good to be true, it probably is.
  • #3,990
  • May 3, 2007 2:07am May 3, 2007 2:07am
Quoting ttitto
I closed half of my position at the 8Ema which is also 38 fibo from the last up move - from 9.04.07. Moved the rest to BE and expect to see 9950
I bought at 9904 and tp at 9921. I'm out for now. Too risky for me, this pair.
Gone to a better place
  • #3,991
  • May 3, 2007 2:43am May 3, 2007 2:43am
Quoting SimonK
I'm still short on USDJPY from last night. Looks like price didnt do much whilst I was sleeping, thanks to not-so-golden week.

Still, it doesnt take much for the dollar to go down nowadays
Still holding onto this too... I'm about -10 pips right now, and still hoping it will drop.

I'm also long on GU at 1.9908, at +17 as of right now.
  • #3,992
  • May 3, 2007 5:25am May 3, 2007 5:25am
I was just reading about Fibonacci levels and guess what I just came across when looking at usd/chf 4hour chart..
Attached Image
  • #3,993
  • May 3, 2007 7:51am May 3, 2007 7:51am
Quoting Pipsi cola
I was just reading about Fibonacci levels and guess what I just came across when looking at usd/chf 4hour chart..
Pipsi -- I think you drew the Fibos backward ... drag from left to right. But you have the right idea!

Also, the points you used are okay, but ideally the points should be swing high/lows and without much 'noise' in between. There is, for example, a low bar maybe two to the left of where you drew your low point that might have been more suitable (don't have it in front of me, can't remember).
  • #3,994
  • May 3, 2007 7:55am May 3, 2007 7:55am
Nice 40 pip gain on GU. I wake up and check it out. I notice the very high pip spread all of a sudden. It's too late. GU drops like a rock, wiping out 25 pips before I close. A nice night's worth of uptrend demolished in one minute. Sigh..... (note to self: don't be so stupid and check the damn news schedule first!!!).

On a related note, the FF website just stalled for like 10 minutes. Nobody posting in this thread would be so foolish, but some folks are probably hitting the "refresh" button every 5 seconds, when all they have to do is go to the calendar page, and click the little button next to the report. Arg.
  • #3,995
  • May 3, 2007 8:22am May 3, 2007 8:22am
I took my GU profit at 1.9940 for a 35 pip gain... my UJ I closed at breakeven, just to get out of it, but my EU long is still intact as I still see an upside potential there...
  • #3,996
  • Edited 9:03am May 3, 2007 8:48am | Edited 9:03am
Looks like MACD will gave us a couple of signals... I am a bit confused at this moment...

I think I will stay out, unless someone is seeing something I am not...

Any idea??

thanks
  • #3,997
  • May 3, 2007 8:49am May 3, 2007 8:49am
After Nonfarm Productivity, I closed my EuroUSD positions long 1.3617 and 1.3597 from 2 days ago at 1.3615. I am really stubborn!: Almost BE because paying rollover.
After Close it I short it promptly another trade at 1.3611, and close already at 1.3585, I won in a couple of minutes What I didn't in Two Days!
Now at 1.3571!!! OH NO!!

I was with big lost when reached 1.3560, but I though EURO Bearish it is not for now, let's see Tomorrow if it is EURO Trend Reverse Start Up!

Today I will see if The Cross reach 1.3557 and I will go long, After 23:00 GMT to Close at 1.3583.
I follow MACD, but in this Important Weeks with some relevant numbers, we must feel the Market.

BYE
MIKE
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,998
  • May 3, 2007 9:07am May 3, 2007 9:07am
Quoting BoredToLoose
After Nonfarm Productivity, I closed my EuroUSD positions long 1.3617 and 1.3597 from 2 days ago at 1.3615. I am really stubborn!: Almost BE because paying rollover.
After Close it I short it promptly another trade at 1.3611, and close already at 1.3585, I won in a couple of minutes What I didn't in Two Days!
Now at 1.3571!!! OH NO!!

I was with big lost when reached 1.3560, but I though EURO Bearish it is not for now, let's see Tomorrow if it is EURO Trend Reverse Start Up!

Today I will see if The Cross reach 1.3557 and I will go long, After 23:00 GMT to Close at 1.3583.
I follow MACD, but in this Important Weeks with some relevant numbers, we must feel the Market.

BYE
MIKE
If Tomorrow reach 1.3520 Bye Bye EURO Bullish!!
Why Did I close my short Position too Soon! NEWS ARE NASTY!!
Long EURO Today or Tomorrow, NO WAY!!

MIKE
  • #3,999
  • May 3, 2007 9:13am May 3, 2007 9:13am
Quoting Pipsi cola
I was just reading about Fibonacci levels and guess what I just came across when looking at usd/chf 4hour chart..
You're right,pipsicola!Exact fibo retracement!Give or take ...
Going long on USDCHF myself. 5 more minutes b4 next candle.SL 1.2099.TP 365 MA.Waiting on TC macd signal
USDCHF looked for support at reverse head & shoulders neckline (red horizontal line on chart) b4 moving up again.
THIS POST WAS TWENTY MINUTES LATE!TOO MUCH VOLUME AT FF!
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  • #4,000
  • Edited 9:57am May 3, 2007 9:51am | Edited 9:57am
Do you know Stē Thomas Setence?
DO WHAT I SAY AND NOT WHAT I DO!!

OOPS "CRAZY KEYBOARD!"
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