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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

  • #16,101
  • Edited 7:05am Feb 2, 2023 6:23am | Edited 7:05am
Quoting bistolis
{quote} I wouldnt be surprised if DOW would drop 1200points over the next days/weeks
1200 points move on DOW takes less energy that proverbial sneeze, we shall see how DOW closes today, crowded after NYSE session results, then from the highs 1200 move down is very likely, possibly starting tomorrow.??? A small PB will not upset the bulls too much, USD index is loosing strength, so Indices likely to continue to go north.
Any and every trade taken upon clear PA performance.
Please do not be distracted from the pure PA even by exploring the possibilities of the potential future scenarios. For that reason I will limit posting on DOW, as it may cause more confusion and harm.
Strat has provided a great guide for traders to follow, I do not wish to complicate this.
More specific observation/s on DOW i will occasionally post on the journal.

I have included also 2M TF and use M5 to monitor trade, when I expect a big move from Pivot or Fib zones. When there is a probability of market threatening the position, I either set up protective Stop, or manually exit the trade.

Good trading to all!
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #16,102
  • Feb 2, 2023 7:19am Feb 2, 2023 7:19am
Quoting 2be
{quote} 1200 points move on DOW takes less energy that proverbial sneeze, we shall see how DOW closes today, crowded after NYSE session results, then from the highs 1200 move down is very likely, possibly starting tomorrow.??? A small PB will not upset the bulls too much, USD index is loosing strength, so Indices likely to continue to go north. Any and every trade taken upon clear PA performance. Please do not be distracted from the pure PA even by exploring the possibilities of the potential future scenarios. For that reason I will limit posting...
I agree. I am just guessing anyways . I am a terrible oracle
  • #16,103
  • Feb 3, 2023 11:15am Feb 3, 2023 11:15am
M1 EURO

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Got caught in some chop n slop so done for the day
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #16,104
  • Feb 3, 2023 12:45pm Feb 3, 2023 12:45pm
Quoting bistolis
{quote} I think you are making it too complicated for yourself I hope this makes more sense. At the top you have some nice PA showing you resistance after that shooting star. I marked a few entry points once it started moving lower, and by that time the trend is reversed. {image}and then same thing again at support on the downside
Hectic week for me personally so a I bit late replying, but bistolis... THANKS for your input. I'm trying to add what you see and how you see it to my analysis. Paying more attention to PA at levels of SR in advanced for a potential reversal coming.

Cheers.
  • #16,105
  • Feb 3, 2023 3:37pm Feb 3, 2023 3:37pm
Quoting Strat
{quote} Seorsian, your 15/5/1 analysis is good, which is similar to mine when I am looking for my first entry, but once I am in, then I just watch how PRICE is moving relative to PRICE and TIME. Sometimes, there is no need for the 15/5 as it is clear on M1 as to what the Big Boys are doing. After that, PASR/Strat Shadow will show you the way as long as you understand when trending PRICE changes to ranging PRICE. However, I agree 100% with bistolis but if this works for you and is your style then keep on doing it. Check my tips from older posts:...
Thank you for your tips Strat. Invaluable as always.
I'm applying that now. Once in a trade I focus on the Worker and try to see beyond the candles. Learning to read strength and weakness in relation to price and time. Thank you for your gems (tips).
  • #16,106
  • Feb 6, 2023 1:09am Feb 6, 2023 1:09am
Hello everyone. first trade of london open ,exit at sr and SS
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  • #16,107
  • Edited 3:38am Feb 6, 2023 3:19am | Edited 3:38am
DOW m1
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Why I exit where I did , look at higher frames. It might go way down lower, but profit is what I want.
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  • #16,108
  • Edited 3:40am Feb 6, 2023 3:28am | Edited 3:40am
Quoting DexterzxD
Hello everyone. first trade of london open ,exit at sr and SS {image}
Morning. Not a bad trade.
on M5 in the meantime (and after your trade)
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Patience for smother PA pays out (Believe me I know how hard that is, looking at a chart for an hour and waiting while trying not to overthink and "go looking" for trades that are not there)
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And filtering out a bad direction (unless you can trade like Strat, in and out on M1). Choosing the direction to pile up trades and increasing the size on the way up while the market agrees with your view). On M15 buying is what I should be doing. I dont want to be short on this PA, but rather buying the dips
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So on hindsight you were abit early on the move. It was still struggling with a flat shadow on m5 m15
  • #16,109
  • Feb 6, 2023 3:47am Feb 6, 2023 3:47am
And while I am busy replying on posts and posting, I miss this
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this pattern on a retracement to the shadow is happening ALOT (and I mean ALOT)

PS: if you want to work on being patient, then sight tight with a glass of water on wait for this pattern to show up.
  • #16,110
  • Feb 6, 2023 7:02am Feb 6, 2023 7:02am
Quoting bistolis
{quote} Morning. Not a bad trade. on M5 in the meantime (and after your trade) {image}Patience for smother PA pays out (Believe me I know how hard that is, looking at a chart for an hour and waiting while trying not to overthink and "go looking" for trades that are not there) {image} And filtering out a bad direction (unless you can trade like Strat, in and out on M1). Choosing the direction to pile up trades and increasing the size on the way up while the market agrees with your view). On M15 buying is what I should be doing. I dont want to be...
Thank you for your comment, this morning i had just the first hour of london free. i have to work with my patience for a smoother PA and proper set-up as you said.
  • #16,111
  • Edited 8:53am Feb 6, 2023 8:32am | Edited 8:53am
I decided to close right before NY volatility kicks in
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Would you have shorted up where I have marked on the chart below?
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  • #16,112
  • Feb 6, 2023 1:51pm Feb 6, 2023 1:51pm
Time to slow down (the Big Boss says!)

Since I am addicted to trading and have a really good understanding of PASR, I end up trading up and down M1 with and against the immediate trend which has been profitable but sometimes stressful. As I am advancing in years (75 in June), the Big Boss has already noticed me slowing down in other areas and suggests I give up trading before I wear myself out. Giving up trading for me would be like chopping my head off so I have agreed to slow down and spend less time in front of the one eyed monster. To do this I am forcing myself to only trade M5 and only in the direction of the immediate trend - no more counter trend trading. My statistics show that I am 19% to 26% less profitable on M5 but to offset that, I am changing my money management to trade larger positions, more add-ons and try and tolerate more draw down.

Today was my first day doing this. Although M5 is SO SLOW it is less stressful but leaves me with 4 to 41/2 minutes of waiting time before the candle closes. During this period, I have time to make a cup of tea and a sandwich, read the News, Football latest and let the dog out and still be bored! It occurred to me that I have time to trade another instrument in this "dead" time so from now on, I will be trading M5 Euro and M5 Dow concurrently. PA was slow today on both instruments and I had to force myself not to look at M1. Trading a different account to my charting account presents a co-ordination problem as I found out this morning. As my set up occurred, I clicked "Buy" on my trading account to enter long based on my charting account only to watch RED P&L figures when PRICE was going up. Straightaway, I knew that I had forgotten to change the instrument and quantities on my trading account before entering. Fortunately, I caught it in time so little monetary damage was done. Until, I get it ingrained into my memory, I have a Post It Note on my screen telling me to switch trading accounts!

M5 EURO

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M5 DOW

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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #16,113
  • Edited 4:59pm Feb 6, 2023 4:37pm | Edited 4:59pm
Quoting Strat
Time to slow down (the Big Boss says!) Since I am addicted to trading and have a really good understanding of PASR, I end up trading up and down M1 with and against the immediate trend which has been profitable but sometimes stressful. As I am advancing in years (75 in June), the Big Boss has already noticed me slowing down in other areas and suggests I give up trading before I wear myself out. Giving up trading for me would be like chopping my head off so I have agreed to slow down and spend less time in front of the one eyed monster. To do this...
Thanks for sharing your experience.
I also find M1 very fast (on DOW), have it displayed, but M5 takes priority over shorter TFs, for example, on M5 an outside bar with a good shadow appears more convincing to me than on M1, or M2. (M2 is much less popular than M1). At that same time I also look at M15 and M30 for intra day trade.
I also have had a "funny" mishap today, entered short on DOW on the M5 which very fast became a pin bar after my initial short entry, and by mistake the position has been 5 times bigger than the intended, the PA has been so fast that I did not put SL, as I sometimes do it manually. As the rational for that short trade has been taken on M5, I managed it on M5TF allowing for a bit of more drawdown, than I added more shorts based on M5 PA, which made a positive balance of that trade, making that a rescue trade scenario. Still came out with smaller profit but it made me to miss long from my exit level just above mS1 mid pivot.
Got another short from below the Daily Pivot, Outside bar and penetration of the last session close, aiming for mS1 again where the trade was closed.
These were my short trades on DOW during NYSE session.
Prior to these shorts I have been aiming towards the gap to the last session close, which also made me reasonably comfortable with the rescue trade idea, as PA can change and reverse after that gap closure if the trend is not too strong and PA stays in a reasonably narrow range. I have paid the price for being impatient with my original plan for the NYSE trading session, thinking about that first premature short which fast become a concern, needing "tender care".
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Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #16,114
  • Feb 6, 2023 5:59pm Feb 6, 2023 5:59pm
Quoting 2be
{quote} Thanks for sharing your experience. I also find M1 very fast (on DOW), have it displayed, but M5 takes priority over shorter TFs, for example, on M5 an outside bar with a good shadow appears more convincing to me than on M1, or M2. (M2 is much less popular than M1). At that same time I also look at M15 and M30 for intra day trade. I also have had a "funny" mishap today, entered short on DOW on the M5 which very fast became a pin bar after my initial short entry, and by mistake the position has been 5 times bigger than the intended, the PA...
Hi 2be,

entered short on DOW on the M5 which very fast became a pin bar after my initial short entry,

Don't you wait for the candle to close?

Got another short from below the Daily Pivot

Do you find the Daily Pivots helpful?

Prior to these shorts I have been aiming towards the gap to the last session close, which also made me reasonably comfortable with the rescue trade idea, as PA can change and reverse after that gap closure if the trend is not too strong and PA stays in a reasonably narrow range.

I don't consider what happened prior to NYSE Open anymore as I find the US Session very fickle and only trade what I see on my charts.

Strange how we are all different - confirms my belief that we are all unique as traders.

Thanks for posting 2be
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #16,115
  • Edited Feb 7, 2023 6:27am Feb 6, 2023 8:30pm | Edited Feb 7, 2023 6:27am
Quoting Strat
{quote} Hi 2be, entered short on DOW on the M5 which very fast became a pin bar after my initial short entry, Don't you wait for the candle to close? Got another short from below the Daily Pivot Do you find the Daily Pivots helpful? Prior to these shorts I have been aiming towards the gap to the last session close, which also made me reasonably comfortable with the rescue trade idea, as PA can change and reverse after that gap closure if the trend is not too strong and PA stays in a reasonably narrow range. I don't consider what happened prior to...
Don't you wait for the candle to close?
That is a good question, yes I normally wait for the candle to close, and my impatience assisted me greatly in taking this premature short entry.
Have also taken the possibility that there might have been a double top below the pivot, and yes there was the automatic risk of a full gap closure, which indeed has happened and have added shorts from there. It is not only the candle closure that is important but also what immediately follows, and after taking that initial entry I got out of the position when the damage or profit is aligned with PA as it happens. I would not recommend taking short in that exact spot, before the candle close! In retrospect I have had a blind spot. Have ended that trade with a small profit, but yes a wasted situation.

Got another short from below the Daily Pivot

Do you find the Daily Pivots helpful?

I find Daily Pivots very useful, and I use mid daily pivots which are very important to me.
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First I use the Daily pivot itself as an important zone which is usually hit within few days, those that have not been reached are indicated on one of my charts, usually M30 or on higher TF, and I use that type of a "gap" as waiting to be filled. Usually clearly identified trend on M15 or M30 is enough to be a good aid, though occasionally it takes much longer. This is my observation on DOW only.
Yellow horizontal lines are the D Pivots.
The pivot indicator I use draws pivot on Sunday, when markets open late in the evening, Please ignore that pivot line when there are two pivot lines to one trading day. This chart is M30 zoomed out, the large candles indicate NYSE session, Daily pivots yellow lines indicate 24H daily TF.
There is a bit more on that subject in my journal, the indicator I use atm is OGT Pivot Points Indicator v1.2
The yellow pivot line continues until the PA hits it, please observe, and make your own decision if it is of any use to your trading approach.
Trading DOW cash future for intraday and scalping and DOW Quarterly future for trades lasting much longer makes sense, there are no overnight charges on the leverage charged when trading Quarterly futures,as long as the trade is closed within the quarter, but please check it with your particular trading platform.

Mid Daily Pivots points are of great use to me, often there are days that can be named mS2/Pivot, like last Monday, often the PA is contained in between the mid pivots levels, like mS1 to mR1 and so on. It is not a hard rule, but it causes me to take more attention of PA around these zones.
Particular bar formations are of paramount importance and when they happen around these pivot zones they provide kind of a confluence. They might be compared to a MA, but nothing is automated, every situation has to be confirmed by PA.

I don't consider what happened prior to NYSE Open anymore as I find the US Session very fickle and only trade what I see on my charts.

Absolutely right, PA at times is very fickle.
If DOW or any other index opened on the level it closed the previous session there will not be any gaps. But there are gaps, at time big gaps in excess of 1% of the total index price. From London Open to NYSE Open there is six and half hours. During that time the price of DOW futures is all over the place, at times more than 1%, that is in execs of 300 points, though more often between 100 to 200 points. DAX follows DOW or NASDAQ during that time, so the PA of US Indices at that time must be important to make DAX to follow it. More often that not the PA at that time presents a low hanging fruit ready to be picked up. One has to make sure this fruit so nice and ready to be picked up is not the fruit from the forbitten tree.
There is much more to investigate and organise the observation/s in relation to that.
Living in the UK also makes it more visible to take this PA into account solely due to the Time zone reality.

Sorry for a partial answers,
Thank you for taking care and posting.
Pleased that you must be filling better, and wish you to make all the adjustments making life easier.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #16,116
  • Feb 7, 2023 8:58am Feb 7, 2023 8:58am
W1 EURO

Reminder to self - beautiful PASR

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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #16,117
  • Edited 11:21am Feb 7, 2023 10:53am | Edited 11:21am
DOW has made some measured moves up
Some trades were made taking M1 and M2 PA which is less visible on M5 but the overall possible expectations to hit the D Pivot were fulfilled
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That has happened since the last chart

ABC symmetrical move 1 to 1 has been achieved, closed manually
it remains to be seen if the gap to the last session close will be filled, last session close is indicated by the vertical white line.

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Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #16,118
  • Edited 1:17pm Feb 7, 2023 12:02pm | Edited 1:17pm
great reaction to fed chairman speech
it is always important to be aware of events like that

First opening well below Last session close, PA went lower below S1 for a very short while then the ride up, and the dramatic move up in reaction to the FED.
Then a ride down, a b it like riding a wild pig, so grab what you can
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The move down might be in expectation for the SOTU.
The profit target has been hit by conservative protective stop.
It is important to look not only at the number of points but what they represent in % move, dow went down just 0.7% and moved up about that same, so the span for the day has been contained in 1.5 - 1.6% or there about. Thinking in % will allow foe less emotions and a bit more stats, usually helpful to ride the market.
We often have an impossible and a faulty desire to see the face, (the future), but what we can see is the back, and that if we are attentive and focused. The past is important. Some would recognise this concept more that others.
I am done for the day,
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #16,119
  • Feb 7, 2023 1:15pm Feb 7, 2023 1:15pm
M5 EURO

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M5 DOW

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M5 trading is definitely not my style - I will have to re-think something between M5 and M1 - maybe M2 or tick charts
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #16,120
  • Feb 8, 2023 2:15am Feb 8, 2023 2:15am
Hello everyone, I trust you're doing well.

I was trying to watch the video PASR basicsvideo but since the adobe flash player has been discontinued I can't get it to play on my mac andI haven't found a workaround yet. Any advice would be highly appreciated.
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