Pivot Trading

today's closed trades

Week
carrying DD trades to next week. I anticipate some corrections on G pairs. Usually rarely anything goes straight line. Where Elliot waves come in play.We'll see new week new opportunities!
Important to keep positive attitude.Losses are part of the business.Just the reality.If you had a restaurant and had a snow storm and nobody coming you got thousands $ of food going bad and no business and that's a loss.It happens in every business, every one!
Think in different way. Example if you had a pizza place. You pay rent,employees,health care,food and drinks cost,heating,electricity,phone and you'll be lucky if you make 10cents out of dollar.I know a friend who has a pizza place if he makes 300 profit in a day he thinks he had a great day!Think about that I made 850 in 15min today! Not to brag just perspective.Now think Forex no overhead, nothing going bad just you and the market! How cool is that?
You have to keep things in perspective!
Have fun and make $$

The whole week was crazy and too much volatility.
COT data not available:

I'm posting these to remind myself more than anything.
These are just a few trades that I'll be watching.
There are many overstretched pairs with possible corrections due.
I appreciate that I'm posting higher time frames and therefore entries should be considered on smaller time frames in accordance with PPE.
I also understand that these charts are focused more on technical analysis and do not necessarily consider the fundamentals at play which will become apparent if not already priced in.
I personally admire chart indicators on higher timeframes such as pinbars, as you can see on the weekly charts posted but this is just one part of the story and edge that we often look for when deciding to enter a trade.
I will be watching to see how the week unfolds. Possibilities are rife.

After getting punched on the face by my favorite currency CAD which ironically I have solid years record of buying and not selling and today sold it and she slapped me hard "screaming why"

Could not find anything to justify it other then Algos reacting to US job report and BOC having similar outlook as Feds carrying the momentum.
Here is the thing about US Job report.Its delayed report meaning reflecting last months data and that may be little hollow since most of these jobs were seasonal holiday jobs and carries less weight.To sum up I am inclined to think Pound likely rebound next week and CAD decline. EG already very high without correction.We should see 8880 or lower next week but anything can happen.

You've been putting solid performance! Making Pivots shine
Continue what you are doing.I love when traders profit from this system.It really matters to me.

I posted these pics in the past but hard finding them so re-posting it.
Looks simple but worth refreshing good trading habits.Now throw pivots over these then becomes a beautiful masterpiece.

Great to be involved and thanks for all your help. Hope to continue improving and posting positive results.

Day Four 3.3.2023


This week has been full of news, big moves. Still, I rate the result positively. Some couples made beautiful long movements, turns. For me this week was slightly in the negative, but that's okay, there is no such week forever, so we continue for another week.

We'll see next week, then I'd possibly make a minor adjustment.

BUT YOU CAN'T EVALUATE THE STATEGY AFTER 1 WEEK !!! TRUST !!!

= what matters is a series of trades, not a single trade

In case anyone is wondering why I'm writing on the fourth day and not the fifth, I post after the store closes, not every day.

Exactly, when I was in business you have this on your conscience all the time, there were great days but then the holidays come, people have vacations go away and you have maybe a 2 month drought. But you can't drop out of the game or you're done. That applies here too, which is why I decided to illustrate the "dumb" and "unmanaged" deals in a live account.

When Bill Gates started, he had money set aside for 1 year of running the company. Employees, rent, fees, etc... Because he realized that a drought could come, he would make a misstep and it wouldn't stop him, derail him, he had to keep going...and he did...and that's where he is..

Hi John
System is discretionary which all great trading is.It can be automated but requires lot more variables etc which is not easy to do. If you are testing every pivot turn it may not work because of events.Discretion comes which trades worth taking which trades not.
regards

Food for thought.The reason lot of trading systems fail because it applied that one must follow every MA cross over,every Bull candle,Bolliger band extremes,RSI OS OB levels etc. Market clearly is not that simple or you would not have 95% lose money. Its lot more complicated and sophisticated. You as a trader must use your discretion! That's the winning EDGE.

Start listening from 42min mark but worth listening the while thing.He talks about discretionary part.Former Prop trader.He is successful trader.

I have nothing to comment, that's exactly how I think :-)
Thanks

PS: The thing is, I can't be on the PC all the time, so I'm testing this simple method. I want to automate it a bit, more like a quality alarm, not a full business AE. We'll see, I'm playing around with it..

Reading through the thread again (after about 2-3?) I came across a couple of good posts..

 

1. The Importance of Mistakes
2. Chapter 24 FORGIVENESS
3. Chapter 23 THE SUCCESS MECHANISM AND THE FAILURE MECHANISM
4. Winning and being a winning trader are two different things…

Hi john,

If you automote it would be nice if you share the EA.

But what davit tried to tell about the variables is true.

Like if you see pst post from 2020. When covid hit. Davit posted pivot will stop working.

Same way oil and russia ukarine issue.

Also if you look gu pair last year the tuss situation gbp free fall.
Same for jpy, boj intervention and this ycc curve. Lets see how it will fold in coming months.

I am not sure about the recession yet how it will play out.

Feb 2nd week outlook

After Powell and NFP USD dominated however I am looking for corrections next week. EU GU NU most corrected less on CAD since CAD is already way over bought and I am anticipating sell off there.After going over the calendar focus is on Pound CAD AUD and less on USD.Only "real" event on USD is bullshit Michigan survey which I think is a joke.

Feb 6th Monday
AUD rate decision

I am inclined to believe rate is priced in and we may see AUD sell off beginning of the week then pick up speed specially on AUD/NZD which has been stuck above 900 for good measure.We may see serious profit taking thus pushing AUD/NZD below 900 even 800.I dont like this pair because of slow movements but this rate event may create impetus for finally see some moves.Should be on your radar.As always we watch PA to guide us to correct decision.

Feb 7Th CAD Trade Balance
Forcast -04B to -1B which is net negative thus inclined to believe overall CAD negative.If you are holding GC this may push GC up.
Between 1980 and 2008, Canada recorded a positive trade balance every year, with an expectation of 1991 and 1992. From 2009 onwards, the trade balance shifted to a deficit. In 2021, it switched again to a trade surplus, with energy products making the largest share of exports. The United States remains the country's biggest trading partner.

Feb9th GBP Thurs Monetary Policy Report Hearings
During these hearings the BOE Governor and several MPC members testify on inflation and the economic outlook before Parliament's Treasury Committee. The hearings are a few hours in length and can create market volatility for the duration. Especially noted are the direct comments made about the currency markets.
Feb10th GBP-GDP M/M---0.3% 0.1%
Green number here will create a beautiful upwards movements on all G pairs.I am inclined to believe there will be green here only because weird as this may sound these numbers can be manipulated and have in the past.
CAD employment--15.0K 104.0K
looks like market thinks not much optimism here.Good if you are selling the CAD.
CAD-Employment rate 5.1% 5.0%-minutely positive.May not have much impact if it prints same.
USD 10am Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
The Index of Consumer Expectations focuses on three areas: how consumers view prospects for their own financial situation, how they view prospects for the general economy over the near term, and their view of prospects for the economy over the long term. Each monthly survey contains approximately 50 core questions, each of which tracks a different aspect of consumer attitudes and expectations. The samples for the Surveys of Consumers are statistically designed to be representative of all American households, excluding those in Alaska and Hawaii. Each month, a minimum of 500 interviews are conducted by telephone.

Above is kind of funny university conducting phone interviews about 500 people to determine sentiments of 334million people.Its a joke but market reacts to it.

I feel I put my due diligence to trade profitable this week.

NC looks very nice to bounce up strong beginning of the week. Could open with gap up. I do like this long.
Again use your discretion and watch PA
The supercilious spike on CAD was not justified and I am anticipating corrections basically on all CAD pairs. CJ should be in focus! Staying away from UC not interested there.

CJ
Looks like we got enough potential set ups to work with this week.Pretty excited actually!

Big gap on UJ
Lets see if it closes

I just took a quick scalp on UJ while it reacts with R78 and confirmation from TDI: M15,M30,H1.
Scalp cuz ADR is just 60%
My 1st post here after months of practice, Thanks to Davit and everyone here.

Watching AN.AC... but be careful for tmw AUD news