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  • #106,501
  • Feb 1, 2023 10:34am Feb 1, 2023 10:34am
next place before 1.1186 that may divert pa.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,502
  • Feb 1, 2023 10:58am Feb 1, 2023 10:58am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Before reaching 1.1186, another place that might screw some is 1.0944/slip. It may start dropping there maybe to 1.0810/slip. Before continuing to 1.1186/slip. After that new ones may develop lower. As things sit now. 1.0093.slip and 0.933x* sit there. The one of equal size to 1.1186 is 0.77. Pa may eventually find itself back to 0.77 in a few years. What's in front of us now is 1.0944/slip. With 1.1186 being so much larger. Pa could blow past 1.0944. But after 4 months. Its a good time to retest...






typo.. change 1.0810, to 1.0710
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,503
  • Feb 1, 2023 12:29pm Feb 1, 2023 12:29pm
A rate hike in most historical data makes a currency stronger. The Fed was raising before others, yet the usd weakened. The thought is 1/4 point rise today.
The economic data is suggesting U.S. inflation is weakening. The mild European winter, and the weakening usd (last 4 months). Has helped the euro. It has helped the euro zone. The ecb may have a better outlook since the last 4 months. Easing inflation in the u.s. has the multiple affect in the ez (via exchange rate). Just a thought. Cause and effect has to be timed right.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,504
  • Feb 1, 2023 12:37pm Feb 1, 2023 12:37pm
Anyone got any info on the Britain strike effects? Will it hurt the economy enough to weaken the gbp?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,505
  • Feb 1, 2023 12:40pm Feb 1, 2023 12:40pm
U.S. CC rates expecting 20% APR. That may dampen the economy. Add congress debt ceiling, and we got a perfect storm brewing.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,506
  • Feb 1, 2023 12:52pm Feb 1, 2023 12:52pm
Quoting gatorinla
A rate hike in most historical data makes a currency stronger. The Fed was raising before others, yet the usd weakened. The thought is 1/4 point rise today. The economic data is suggesting U.S. inflation is weakening. The mild European winter, and the weakening usd (last 4 months). Has helped the euro. It has helped the euro zone. The ecb may have a better outlook since the last 4 months. Easing inflation in the u.s. has the multiple affect in the ez (via exchange rate). Just a thought. Cause and effect has to be timed right.
I think theres also the crossborder flow of interest rate differential to consider. we've been having YEARS of the euro in negative interest rate acting as a funding currency, people borrowing the euro to buy higher interest, high beta currencies like CNH, AUD.
this is not small amounts..... that interest rate differential is dying VERY quickly now that the differential between EUR and CNH/AUD close to non-existent.....
huge amount of euro shorts thats been piled up over the years are being unwounded....

All of a sudden i see institutional flow actually thinking EUROPE for capital flow to move into not Outflow, Inflows to EURO

heads up. BTC catching a bid ahead of the FOMC. 25bps hike is going to be taken in positively for risk asset. but ball is on Powell's Court whether if he wants to spook the market
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #106,507
  • Feb 1, 2023 12:57pm Feb 1, 2023 12:57pm
rate in 3 min. The presser starts 30 min after. The presser could be volatile.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,508
  • Feb 1, 2023 12:59pm Feb 1, 2023 12:59pm
Quoting gatorinla
rate in 3 min. The presser starts 30 min after. The presser could be volatile.
yup all about the press conference now. Unless it is 0.5 instead of 0.25
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #106,509
  • Feb 1, 2023 1:00pm Feb 1, 2023 1:00pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} yup all about the press conference now. Unless it is 0.5 instead of 0.25
no surprise 0.25
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #106,510
  • Feb 1, 2023 1:08pm Feb 1, 2023 1:08pm
"Ongoing" keyword kept in statement.
But im surprised.... Unanimous decision for 25bps?
you would've thought there would be one of the hawks being one who would vote for 50bps.

thats kind of Fed subtly pivoting but verbally trying to manage market expectation not to create a new rally/bubble that would risk undoing their efforts to control inflation...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #106,511
  • Feb 1, 2023 1:12pm Feb 1, 2023 1:12pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} I think theres also the crossborder flow of interest rate differential to consider. we've been having YEARS of the euro in negative interest rate acting as a funding currency, people borrowing the euro to buy higher interest, high beta currencies like CNH, AUD. this is not small amounts..... that interest rate differential is dying VERY quickly now that the differential between EUR and CNH/AUD close to non-existent..... huge amount of euro shorts thats been piled up over the years are being unwounded.... All of a sudden i see institutional...
We have never had a economy where the employment rate is so high. A few hundred thousand workers died during Covid. The labor from the Southern border is less. We cant get workers to pick produce in my area. So the farmers are not planting. Tada, less produce, so produce prices soar. I can imagine the entire country has this labor shortage. The economy was set up this way for hundred years +. Throwing a monkey wrench in the works has cost.

Too many jobs, not enough workers. = a cluster phuck in a place w/o any means to fight it.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,512
  • Feb 1, 2023 1:15pm Feb 1, 2023 1:15pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} We have never had a economy where the employment rate is so high. A few hundred thousand workers died during Covid. The labor from the Southern border is less. We cant get workers to pick produce in my area. So the farmers are not planting. Tada, less produce, so produce prices soar. I can imagine the entire country has this labor shortage. The economy was set up this way for hundred years +. Throwing a monkey wrench in the works has cost.
But at the same time i hear so much complains about how hard it is to get people back to work....
i sure enjoyed a really good bump in negotiating for my base salary. the magnitude of which i havent really seen ever... since graduation....
normal pre-covid youd be lucky to get HR to pay you 20% increase.
nowadays they'd pay almost anything to lure/retain talents.... theres a huge talent drain in 2022...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #106,513
  • Feb 1, 2023 1:25pm Feb 1, 2023 1:25pm
FOMC Press Conference February 1, 2023...
Inserted Video
I am who I am
  • #106,514
  • Feb 1, 2023 1:29pm Feb 1, 2023 1:29pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} But at the same time i hear so much complains about how hard it is to get people back to work.... i sure enjoyed a really good bump in negotiating for my base salary. the magnitude of which i havent really seen ever... since graduation.... normal pre-covid youd be lucky to get HR to pay you 20% increase. nowadays they'd pay almost anything to lure/retain talents.... theres a huge talent drain in 2022...
Getting "people back to work" is a generic term. If the people are already working, who is left? Then ones who died or retired. People are working. The term "people back to work" is a bullshit term. Its made to act like, masses of people are choosing to stay home. Even my lazy brother-in-law is working now. And he is making good money.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,515
  • Feb 1, 2023 1:31pm Feb 1, 2023 1:31pm
Powel is on the tube
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,516
  • Feb 1, 2023 1:53pm Feb 1, 2023 1:53pm
Quoting fxtyrant
"Ongoing" keyword kept in statement. But im surprised.... Unanimous decision for 25bps? you would've thought there would be one of the hawks being one who would vote for 50bps. thats kind of Fed subtly pivoting but verbally trying to manage market expectation not to create a new rally/bubble that would risk undoing their efforts to control inflation...
So Subtly pivot, yea thats already a fact. pace of hikes have slowed already.....

actually this is quite a DOVISH sounding Powell whos kinda admitting that they have done enough to see effect.... so slowdown to observe is appropriate but does not discount completely possible tuner hikes of 25bps.

hes even given the playbook..... already seeing Goods prices coming down (which is welcomed). and seeing Housing next component to peak and turn....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #106,517
  • Feb 1, 2023 1:57pm Feb 1, 2023 1:57pm
several slips were 42/43 pips. If that was to continue. 1.0944+43=1.0987. The last one was 60 pips.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,518
  • Feb 1, 2023 2:16pm Feb 1, 2023 2:16pm
5 m, high 1.1000.6
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,519
  • Feb 1, 2023 2:21pm Feb 1, 2023 2:21pm
Quoting gatorinla
5 m, high 1.1000.6 {image}
Well done Gator,

let see how effective this is. We still have many events this week
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #106,520
  • Feb 1, 2023 2:43pm Feb 1, 2023 2:43pm
technically bullish trend on D1 resumed with new H, next R at 1.104, then 61%fib level at 1.12
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