vidvad's 2023 4-9-18 ema journal

Basic, I know, but if you are using the Renko HA, this is something to pay attention to imo.

Those are just from today, three different instruments: Pound, ES, and Gold.

Looks simple, right? It is. But it sure isn't easy, that's for sure. Why? Because there is a good bit of initial drawdown in some of those entries. This is where we stumble, I am thinking. We fear loss, so we make our stop losses too tight so we can limit our losses, but then that in turn has the unintended consequence of making us lose more by losing more often and winning less than the market offers us.

50 pips in XAUUSD using the GC gold futures contract.

Stacey Burke Template:


9-18 Template view


NOTE: Stacey Burke would probably be looking for gold to run stops below yesterday's low. Today's trade is SIM, not live money. Live money trading resumes on Monday.

"When price is at a level, I switch from the 15 minute to the one minute. I'm looking for M structures and engulfments at the highs." - Stacey Burke

Gold was pushed up to run stops at the Globex high (aka "Asian High" or "London High") and then sold off. Very clear "M" structure with a very clear bear candle engulfing the last leg up.

1 minute XAUUSD (GC gold futures shown)

Gold a case study, though admittedly this is a one day n=1, Gold is the one instrument I trade where 50 pips is a good profit target. On the S&P 500 and the GBPUSD, 25 ticks seems to be more reliable profit targets under the current level of intraday volatility.

Took the fixed 50 in Gold. Had I held for yesterday's low to be tested, I'd have given back all the profit and be in the red, at least at the moment.



Notes

1) For me and the way I like to trade (the way that lets me trade without pressure and dread) I must use a fixed profit target that is probable based on the current volatility of th einstrument I am trading, e.g. I'd like to make 400 ticks per SP500 trade, but that happens very, very rarely in one session, but 25 ticks happens several times per day, so take the 25 ticks.

2) While I'd like to risk $1 to $2 or $3, and that is often the actual risk, the actual risk isn't known until the trade is closed, whether for red or for green. The optimal initial stop is usually going to be risk $1 to make $1. Gold may be the exception currently, where it might be possible to risk $3 to make $5. But for now, all the instruments I trade has advanced trade management parameters set that automatically enter a stop loss equal to the profit target. This does not get adjusted to lower risk until the trade pullsback and then tests the most recent favorable extreme. In other words, if I sell short at $Z, and price falls to $W, I will lower the stop loss only after price retraces to $Y and again falls to $W.

Stacey Burke entry versus Renko HA 9-18 entry.



SB entries will usually get a quick favorable move which may see the market pullback into the level of the entry, but usually will offer very little heat. The 9-18 entry, on the other hand will frequently require you hold through some heat. Why not wait for the heat (i.e. the pullback) and then enter? Because there isn't always a pullback. And if you wait for the pullback, you miss the trade entirely.

There is always risk. If you fail to take a signal, and your profit target is 50 ticks, and you're trading $10/tick, your risk for skipping the signal is $500. Don't fool yourself into thinking you didn't take any risk. If you have a system with an edge, you need to take all the signals within your timing widow to experience the benefits of the edge.

My timeing window opens at 8:30 AM and closes when I have closed for a full profit (50 pips gold, 25 pips GBPUSD and SP500), or 11:30 AM Eastern, or two full stops, whichever happens first.

Extraordinary day on the ES, and by that I mean a very unusual, remarkable day.

I'm not trying to hide anything here by cutting off the chart. I am highlighting my trading window, which is 8:30 AM to 11:30 AM Eastern.

This weekend I bought the MA Crossover indi from ninza.co which not only prints the crossovers on the chart but has sound and pop up alerts which I really appreciate and made today so smooth and stress free. Sometimes it is difficult to see if there is in fact a xrossover when using the standar ninjatrade indi's. This takes the guesswork out of it. I bought a two computer license so I could have it on both my office desktop as well as my road warrior laptop. Total cost was $188 instead of the $251 regular price because this was my first purchase with Ninza and they give a nice discount for your first purchase. I've been using several of their free indicators for a while. For example, when you see the various shaded areas on my charts that mark different sessions or trading windows, that is a free ninza indi called ninza trading time. I am not an affiliate and get no credit if you buy something from them. I'm just sharing what I git and why. The standard out of the box indi's worked fine. This is just a tool to make my trading time easier.

Also, I spent a lot of hours this weekend going over past charts and with the addition of the ninza crossover indi, I was really able to tighten up my set-up definitions.

I'm too tired to go into detail toight, but you can look at the charts here to get an idea of what I am working with. The most obvious set up is the MA cross. I trade what I call a "1st cross," but I also distinguish between a strong cross and a weak cross.

More on that in the next day or two. These notes should give you an idea of how I am working the system. To be clear, the reason I have dropped the 4 SMA as my trigger is that it is irrelevant to the 9-18 cross as I am trading it. I started using the 4 SMA as a trigger signal when I was using the 9 ema og the high and low bands per rockypoint's method. When I use the 9 ema band template, I still use the 4 SMA as a trigger signal. It is excellent in that context.

That quote from Turnip is from another thread referencing still another thread. I really like that thread as well as this one:

Roadmap - A Way To Read Markets | Forex Factory

Both the "Just a Journal" thread and the "Roadmap" thread are by @LauraT

Great stuff, imo.

First signal is a news cross too fast to trade and usually I want to wait for the market to "settle down" before trading after news.



I took the pullback long signal shown, and was taken out with +2 ticks on the trail stop.


I don't keep the trade markers on while I trade but here they are to show the pullback entry and +2 trailing stop out.

The inverse Head and Shoulders reversal has a measuring target of close to $4070 on the ES, and getting very close to that target now.

A weak cross is when the 9 ema crosses above or below the 18 ema and the 18 ema passes through the range of both yhe signal and what would otherwise be the entry candle. After a weak cross, odds favor that there will be a re-cross in the opposite direction within a few candles.

Notable today was the failed breakout of yesterday's low after the ES's breakdown below Friday's low also failed yesterday. Today ES went "coast to coast" retracing all of Monday's range and then some, exceeding the inverse head and shoulders target in doing so.

FOMC day with big Red News at 2PM. Overnight the market was in a relatively flat range given current volatility. First signal today was a weak cross short, weak cross meaning the 18 ema passes through the range of both the signal and entry candle. I think these will be good enough for scalps with a very small fixed profit target, e.g. around 12 ticks +/- a couple of ticks. But I need much more back testing data before I can add that as a tradable set up.

Small consolidation, a sort of bull flag with a small inverse head and shoulders look to it. Today's Globex open is 4085.25 and that can be both a magnet that attracts and repels price.

Caution is the rule for today, imo.

1st Cross long and targeting Previous High (PH)

So far the high of the signaled move is 4089.75 and that is 6 ticks below the PH. Ont thing I found in my back testing is that very often the ES will fall short of PH and PL targets by 6 ticks or less. Something to keep in my back pocket and might need to think about incorporating it into my take profit orders.

Stopped at break even and now waiting to see if I get a pullback long signal or a strong 1st cross short signal. Mu bad as I overlooked red news at 10 AM as I was hyper focused on the red news FOMC at 2 PM.



EDIT: Pullback long triggered and then scratched it quickly as a red doji formed on the very next candle. Probably going to get a 1st cross short soon.

Edit: Just got 1st Cross short but another weak cross with the 18 ema passing through both the signal and the would-be entry candle.

So I need to wait for a pullback short, or else I just sit this mobe out if it goes without me in it. Globex low 4071, and central pivot for the ES today is 4063. At the moment ES has just tested the NYSE low and it has held for a bounce.

I'm going to sit out until this afternoon.

hi @vidvad I found this thread because I was searching for SB info, thanks for sharing the Pips2Profit channel I'm working my way through the content now.

Wondering which strategy you have decided to use, I don't mind putting the hour in learning the content but if you've chosen one over another I'd be interested to know? thanks.