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1H Swing Trading on EURUSD

  • #1,081
  • Jan 4, 2023 1:19pm Jan 4, 2023 1:19pm
No clear decision today.

Bears trying to get through recent supports, Bulls pushing them back above, me watching.
No follow through and not new real direction taken today, recent up trend still in place.

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Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #1,082
  • Jan 6, 2023 3:15am Jan 6, 2023 3:15am
NFP Trade, or not...

After a recent pull and a bit of consolidation, the down pressure remains and It's enough right now to enter a short trade but I have a rule saying that when the major trend is bullish I can only enter a contrarian trade (short) if price comes near of the SMA on a closing basis, right now we are at 80+ pips from it.

So the overall picture that I see is still bullish as we are above the 55 day SMMA but there is a large room for a good correction at least near that same SMMA .
It's useless to try to see farther than that as conditions change almost every week.

Adding a Timeout to my trades.

I'm almost adding new things as soon as I see that something could have been done a bit better.

I have been thinking about what could have been done regarding my previous trade on which I took 11% profit which is not bad in absolute terms but on which at some moment I saw more that 100% floating profit.

After examining all the trades in my backtest, I saw that there were not a single trade that lasted more than 3+ weeks so from today I will
monitor the duration of any trade and close it when reaching around 4 weeks. I don't think this should happen too often so it's a good additional feature to improve the performance while adding a bit of additional security in the process.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #1,083
  • Jan 6, 2023 6:30am Jan 6, 2023 6:30am
Quoting broketrader
NFP Trade, or not... After a recent pull and a bit of consolidation, the down pressure remains and It's enough right now to enter a short trade but I have a rule saying that when the major trend is bullish I can only enter a contrarian trade (short) if price comes near of the SMA on a closing basis, right now we are at 80+ pips from it. So the overall picture that I see is still bullish as we are above the 55 day SMMA but there is a large room for a good correction at least near that same SMMA . It's useless to try to see farther than that as conditions...
Agree with you BT. Perhaps should consider taking partial profit. Frankly, I can feel the pain of seeing profit gone so far before coming back to Breakeven or entry point.
Be like water, my friend!
  • #1,084
  • Edited 8:18am Jan 6, 2023 6:40am | Edited 8:18am
Quoting ahmike
{quote} Agree with you BT. Perhaps should consider taking partial profit. Frankly, I can feel the pain of seeing profit gone so far before coming back to Breakeven or entry point.
No issues as there was no pain felt, just wondering what could be done to improve without changing everything else and that's just what I did.
There will be other trades, other days and now I'm better prepared for those and it's all part of the learning process so I'm fine with it.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #1,085
  • Jan 6, 2023 8:17am Jan 6, 2023 8:17am
No trading today.

It seems too early to me to break that pennant but who knows...

The NFP acted as I expected, strong but still not changing the short bear sentiment and then came the PMI with a push of 100 pips to the upside. Strong momentum and enough to forget the short I was planning to enter but not enough yet to go long, maybe Monday will decide of it.


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Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #1,086
  • Jan 10, 2023 3:57am Jan 10, 2023 3:57am
Consolidation broken and new highs made

Finally that consolidation period was short and it broke to the upside.

The momentum was sustained so I could enter long again and at the time of writing the momentum is still there, no weak sign, meaning that the bulls want more and sign for more push upwards. but we will need some correction at some point it's already 250 pips from recent low!

Trade open, no target yet.

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Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #1,087
  • Jan 12, 2023 1:39pm Jan 12, 2023 1:39pm
Continuous bullish momentum.

As expected, recent momentum has pushed the price again to a new high, it was clearly visible that there was no other possible outcome whatever the CPI numbers would have been as there was almost no correction during this last period of consolidation. I have a possible target at 1.1030 where I could decide to take some profits on current trade.

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Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #1,088
  • Jan 20, 2023 12:10am Jan 20, 2023 12:10am
Consolidating last push.

We are in another consolidation zone, there were moments in which momentum was lost but it invariably went back in the following hours which means that the bull interest is there so the overall picture and sentiment remains bullish.

My current trade is reaching it's half life, I will still let it run for another 2 weeks unless it reaches my target sitting at 1.10

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Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #1,089
  • Jan 24, 2023 11:26pm Jan 24, 2023 11:26pm
Still with the trend.

Another push to the upside after recent consolidation has just created a local new up trend.

Trade is at 58% of its allowed life time. I can stay in a trade for long but not for ever, see post #1082 on this page, this one is now living since 2 weeks.

On the bottom line, it's showing 40%+ profit right now and some of these are now locked as I will close it if I see several and substantial closes below the SMA or a substantial decrease in the momentum, those are my stop losses.

On the target side, I have 2 identified, 1.1010 and 1.1040 maybe we will reach one, both or none, I will decide if I should close by looking at price action once we approach those levels, otherwise I should be put out by the stop losses I just talked about.

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Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #1,090
  • Jan 25, 2023 5:53am Jan 25, 2023 5:53am
Kudos" on your locked in profit... Woot!
You learn something everyday if you pay attention.
  • #1,091
  • Jan 27, 2023 3:25am Jan 27, 2023 3:25am
Adding fuel to my trading.

I Have been working on a way to enter kind of scalping trades when I'm already in, with a standard system trade.

The logic behind being that as the main trades should end most of the time profitable the same outcome should apply to the scalps.

But how do I know that my trades are ending most of the time profitable ? Well, I don't know it, I measure it, so if the win rate over the last 10 trades is good enough, I will proceed, I will avoid them otherwise. it's simple and should be efficient, but let's see...

Below, along the current trade, I identified in yellow circles where those scalps could have been taken.

Always easy on paper, lol, let's see in real...

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Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #1,092
  • Edited 2:34pm Jan 27, 2023 12:43pm | Edited 2:34pm
Finally it came to an end.

Another good trade with 147 pips profit and 26% gain.
Entered a counter-trend trade that should have a short life and waiting more negative momentum to eventually enter a bear trend trade, we will see.

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Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #1,093
  • Jan 31, 2023 9:44pm Jan 31, 2023 9:44pm
End of my Novice period.

It has been three months of good trading...

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Since I reset my account beginning of November with depositing 400$, the account has grown exactly 8x to 3200$

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Learning to be patient, to execute as per the plan with no anticipation and no precipitation.
Still a lot of work to do to prove that I can do it, at least I have all I need for it, its just a question on continuing what I'm doing.

Starting this next period of 4 months with the "Beginner" status, just to remain on the ground and not forget that I still have to figure out how to detect when the system starts to fail and adapt my trading accordingly while patiently waiting better days, a work in progress...
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #1,094
  • Feb 5, 2023 7:42am Feb 5, 2023 7:42am
Ready for an excellent week! Woot!
You learn something everyday if you pay attention.
  • #1,095
  • Feb 19, 2023 9:45am Feb 19, 2023 9:45am
Quoting broketrader
End of my Novice period. It has been three months of good trading... {image} Since I reset my account beginning of November with depositing 400$, the account has grown exactly 8x to 3200$ {image} Learning to be patient, to execute as per the plan with no anticipation and no precipitation. Still a lot of work to do to prove that I can do it, at least I have all I need for it, its just a question on continuing what I'm doing. Starting this next period of 4 months with the "Beginner" status, just to remain on the ground and not forget that I still...
Hi BT.. Just downloaded your indicators, SRSI96-V8 and SmaSRSI-2021.

I am planning to use them in a combination with price action.

I have already read in your relevant post how to use them. I have two questions;

1) Can you send the most updated versions of both indicators?
2) Can you tell me about your strategy? (what are your criterias to enter a trade, when do you exit, what is your win rate, what is your RRR, what is your profit factor etc.)

By the way, I am trading on 1h EURUSD, too.

p.s. In your most recent posts I can' t see SRSI96-V8 on your charts, not using it anymore?
  • #1,096
  • May 22, 2023 3:33am May 22, 2023 3:33am
This system is on pause right now as it seems not to be working with current market conditions.
I'm still monitoring it and waiting patiently for it to be back...
In the meanwhile I will be trading a complete different one from today which looks good in both periods, past and present when this SMA worked and not anymore.
For now it seems that when I find something good it just stops working the moment I go live...
Explorer reset to track my performance, let's see.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #1,097
  • Edited 7:48am May 22, 2023 3:41am | Edited 7:48am
First ongoing trade, parameters for entry cannot be shared for the time being, not even know if this one will work.
Orange line is my SMA 96 which helps to identify the current trend that I still use for my trades...
Stop/Target levels on the chart.

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Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #1,098
  • Jun 2, 2023 2:40am Jun 2, 2023 2:40am
Previous one ended with a loss but entered again on the same direction and looks like I'm in better position now but nothing is done until either TP or SL is reached...

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Have a risk/reward of 1:8 on this one...
I also asked support on why my explorer cannot anymore suddenly be attached to the thread, but still visible on my profile, waiting an answer from them...
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #1,099
  • Jun 17, 2023 1:13am Jun 17, 2023 1:13am
First Trade on new system

After some initial tuning I finally set my first trade which became a winning one and while waiting for the outcome I finally came out with clear rules to trade. This one works on EU H4, and has a risk that is between 1 (30 pips) to 2 (60 pips hard stop) for a reward of ~4 to ~8, depending on market conditions, I still use my SMA 96 to indicate overall market directions.

This first trade was perfect with a 1/8 risk/reward which finally paid 8.5x !

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The explorer finally came green

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Waiting now for next signal and trade...
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #1,100
  • Jun 20, 2023 11:24pm Jun 20, 2023 11:24pm
Hey BT! It's been a minute! What's the new strategy? I can see your entries are before the break.... Take care
Rise or fall....a better me!
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