Thank you for visiting, this forum / thread chronicles the development / journey in developing a trading method based on the works of JM Hurst, Tillman, TradingFive and David F. I do not know these persons nor am I advertising their services but acknowledging their prior art and it's contribution to this work.
This forum will read as a journal of the development and use of the strategy which I trade on live forex accounts. The core method is not to be changed as it has been proved to be a theory, by others, not a hypothesis. A scientific approach has been taken to trading due to the issue discussed below.
Constructive criticism is always welcomed but must be accompanied by scientific reasoning with evidence; otherwise, it cannot be considered as reproducible fact and the author will be banned. I only give humans a single chance; harsh but has served me well. You have been warned.
This this forum / thread is not for newbies / get rich quick types etc... but for humans who ponder, consider, philosophize, experiment, experienced and most of all can do maths and code!
After trading for numerous years, I realised that apart from money management, my biggest issue was confidence in the belief that price would move in a certain direction for a certain period of time / pips / points. Tended to cut good trades short and let bad trades run; Dooh! By chance, I came across the works of Samuel Benner, JM Hurst, David Hickson, Jim Curry and David F. The mostly weekly YouTube videos by David Hickson gave a believable story behind the cyclic motion of the market. Unbelievably, when he said there would be a trough in the market it tended to occur even though when I looked at the news and economic forecast, I didn't believe it! However, every single time over a three-year period it came true. To the point, for the last predicted trough I listened and then the war and recession started! Thanks David H for the foresight.
Benner's Prophecy: https://www.cosmoeconomics.com/EZ/ic...90l8cct363da52
JM Hurst: https://cyclesresearchinstitute.org/...markets/hurst/
Sentient Trader: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvc...FSe8FOkm25vgBw
David F take on JM Hurst: https://www.sigma-l.net/ (Amazing!)
Jim Curry who forecasts gold movements based on cycles: https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/f...orrection-2023
The problem: Market are synchronised at the troughs and these can only be confirmed after the event. This can be too late and the market has already peaked. The vice versa also occurs. Tillman and TradingFive present a potential means of trading half the Sigmoidal Wave on the up and the down from the mid point to the trough / peak.
Tillman: https://www.forbes.com/2003/02/18/cz...h=4ddfccb73eae
Tillman: https://cycletrend.tv/
Tradingfive: http://www.tradingfives.com/store/hurstbook.html
Tradingfive: https://www.tradingfives.com/store/jm-hurst-charts.htm
There have been a number of issues to overcome in developing this strategy, some are explained below: (To understand, you will need advance knowledge of Hurst and Tillmans methods).
1) By plotting moving averages (MAs) correctly current data is not available. If we extrapolate the current data (the missing data), this leads to refreshing of current data on each bar. Is this a true issue or can it be resolved be other means?
2) How to predict the take profits (tp) from the MAs cross over point given the refresh issue and needing to know the high / low of the last cycle?
3) How to ensure there is enough room in pips / points to overcome the inherent error of the system to make a profit or will it make a profit?
4) Given 1-3, this strategy probably can not be automated and will need some human intuition when trading.
I do not live in / on the internet and so will add information / strategy / indicators / data / trades when I have time.
This stratgey is not a panacea, but a trend following trading method if followed correctly with experience (hindsight).
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Legal Disclaimer
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. No information or opinion contained on this forum / thread should be taken as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any currency, equity or other financial instruments or services. Past performance is no indication or guarantee of future performance.
Anything in this forum / thread in any medium (including but not limited to written, drawn, spoken), including but not limited to trading methods, indicators, templates, pictures, trades are for educational purposes only and should not be taken as any guarantee you will achieve the same or better results. Any references to orders placed, are for educational purposes only, and are not a recommendation to buy or sell. Any comments made in the forum / thread are for educational purpose only, and not buy or sell recommendations.
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
This forum will read as a journal of the development and use of the strategy which I trade on live forex accounts. The core method is not to be changed as it has been proved to be a theory, by others, not a hypothesis. A scientific approach has been taken to trading due to the issue discussed below.
Constructive criticism is always welcomed but must be accompanied by scientific reasoning with evidence; otherwise, it cannot be considered as reproducible fact and the author will be banned. I only give humans a single chance; harsh but has served me well. You have been warned.
This this forum / thread is not for newbies / get rich quick types etc... but for humans who ponder, consider, philosophize, experiment, experienced and most of all can do maths and code!
After trading for numerous years, I realised that apart from money management, my biggest issue was confidence in the belief that price would move in a certain direction for a certain period of time / pips / points. Tended to cut good trades short and let bad trades run; Dooh! By chance, I came across the works of Samuel Benner, JM Hurst, David Hickson, Jim Curry and David F. The mostly weekly YouTube videos by David Hickson gave a believable story behind the cyclic motion of the market. Unbelievably, when he said there would be a trough in the market it tended to occur even though when I looked at the news and economic forecast, I didn't believe it! However, every single time over a three-year period it came true. To the point, for the last predicted trough I listened and then the war and recession started! Thanks David H for the foresight.
Benner's Prophecy: https://www.cosmoeconomics.com/EZ/ic...90l8cct363da52
JM Hurst: https://cyclesresearchinstitute.org/...markets/hurst/
Sentient Trader: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvc...FSe8FOkm25vgBw
David F take on JM Hurst: https://www.sigma-l.net/ (Amazing!)
Jim Curry who forecasts gold movements based on cycles: https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/f...orrection-2023
The problem: Market are synchronised at the troughs and these can only be confirmed after the event. This can be too late and the market has already peaked. The vice versa also occurs. Tillman and TradingFive present a potential means of trading half the Sigmoidal Wave on the up and the down from the mid point to the trough / peak.
Tillman: https://www.forbes.com/2003/02/18/cz...h=4ddfccb73eae
Tillman: https://cycletrend.tv/
Tradingfive: http://www.tradingfives.com/store/hurstbook.html
Tradingfive: https://www.tradingfives.com/store/jm-hurst-charts.htm
There have been a number of issues to overcome in developing this strategy, some are explained below: (To understand, you will need advance knowledge of Hurst and Tillmans methods).
1) By plotting moving averages (MAs) correctly current data is not available. If we extrapolate the current data (the missing data), this leads to refreshing of current data on each bar. Is this a true issue or can it be resolved be other means?
2) How to predict the take profits (tp) from the MAs cross over point given the refresh issue and needing to know the high / low of the last cycle?
3) How to ensure there is enough room in pips / points to overcome the inherent error of the system to make a profit or will it make a profit?
4) Given 1-3, this strategy probably can not be automated and will need some human intuition when trading.
I do not live in / on the internet and so will add information / strategy / indicators / data / trades when I have time.
This stratgey is not a panacea, but a trend following trading method if followed correctly with experience (hindsight).
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Legal Disclaimer
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. No information or opinion contained on this forum / thread should be taken as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any currency, equity or other financial instruments or services. Past performance is no indication or guarantee of future performance.
Anything in this forum / thread in any medium (including but not limited to written, drawn, spoken), including but not limited to trading methods, indicators, templates, pictures, trades are for educational purposes only and should not be taken as any guarantee you will achieve the same or better results. Any references to orders placed, are for educational purposes only, and are not a recommendation to buy or sell. Any comments made in the forum / thread are for educational purpose only, and not buy or sell recommendations.
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