Do we have a possible TC?
Any idea?
Any idea?
- #3,922
- May 1, 2007 8:05am May 1, 2007 8:05am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Evil Kraut | 2,559 Posts
Do we have a possible TC?
Any idea?
Regards - Xaron
- #3,926
- Edited 9:10am May 1, 2007 8:55am | Edited 9:10am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Trader | 2,303 Posts
The price action today is too quick to follow by 4hr.
I tried breakout trade for the first time with USD/JPY today. Quick 30 pips profit.
I have been observing the price action of AUD/USD. Look at beatiful RTs and RBs. Looks easy to trade with minimum s/l. This is the only pair that I felt comfortable to follow long signal today.
I tried breakout trade for the first time with USD/JPY today. Quick 30 pips profit.
I have been observing the price action of AUD/USD. Look at beatiful RTs and RBs. Looks easy to trade with minimum s/l. This is the only pair that I felt comfortable to follow long signal today.
- #3,929
- May 1, 2007 9:26am May 1, 2007 9:26am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Trader | 2,303 Posts
I do not see any long signal on IBFX. No logic to enter long when usd news are good!?!?
BTW the UJ short i posted earlier reached 21eMA and second part was closed manually. The result is 7 pips
But do not forget Market Emotion, When big Dips usually I go where the trends are, here is a good opportunity to go long if Reach 1.3617, as you can see it is a big dip.
Now at 1.3627, maybe I try to enter at 1.3597, let's see!
I WAS LONG AT 1.3617, NOW WAIT TO BUY OTHER LOT IF REACH 1.3597
MIKE
- #3,933
- May 1, 2007 10:55am May 1, 2007 10:55am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Trader | 2,303 Posts
Sometimes it seems like we need a little luck, but never trade counting on it Mike....
I think you may have forgotten 2 important things:
1) News--that big spike down was news-related, and I guess you're expecting an upturn from the trendline... okay, that is logical, BUT it's the news and you never know. Also, no MACD signal to speak of.
2) Money Management--your Reward to Risk ratio is 33:40... that's below 1... you want at least above 1, ideally 3:1 or so.
Now, it looks like you're at B/E as of time of this post, so good luck and I hope it turns out well for you. But if it does, I think it will be because of luck and not a good trade, so keep that in mind--you'll lose more trades than you'll win that way (trust me, I know from bad experience unfortunately).
I have read few minutes ago some news that saying that probably the 4 times that fail to reach 1.3700, maybe if the EURUSD do not reach 1.3620 Today, the way it is dow.
If it reaches 1.3593 again I will close it!
That why I am a looser, I am ver impulsive
.Bye
MIKE
- #3,934
- May 1, 2007 11:00am May 1, 2007 11:00am
I didn't take the trade as I was in doubt, need to test this pair, I didn't work with it before. What is your usuall SL for this pair? When I was testing USD/JPY I came to number 55 most of the time. It was good and for TP too.
I think you are sleeping now
Regarding best ratio for SL and TP, it depends on 2 factors:
1). Price action. Let's say a pinbar is formed off the new high/low, fib level, etc. I can go ahead with 50 pips SL. In the event of price congestion, spinning tops, etc, where a future direction is not yet clear a breakout can happen in any direction, I'll favor a tight SL. This is what I provisioned in the last play. Price was only 5 pips shy of my SL but I kept the plan.
2). R:R ratio.
Hope it clarifies.
Yours, Tamkras
- #3,937
- May 1, 2007 1:23pm May 1, 2007 1:23pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Trader | 2,303 Posts
You are right, I have to be more carefull!
I have read few minutes ago some news that saying that probably the 4 times that fail to reach 1.3700, maybe if the EURUSD do not reach 1.3620 Today, the way it is dow.
If it reaches 1.3593 again I will close it!
That why I am a looser, I am ver impulsive
Bye
MIKE
I was waiting to see the close of my H1 TF, and I will be very vigilant to see the close of NY and Asian start up.
If I see another important quickly deeps of +15 pips I close before 1.3577.
I am relutant that this big deep, maybe it is the start of EURO Bearish!
.But after see all deeps in recent times, it is very bad luck if reach my SL.
MIKE
Nice roundup once more Phil. im pleased to say i my own notes for the pair matched yours so that made me quite happy . in your roundup phil you stated that some people were unhappy about the MACD system
I think when VERY strong resitsnace is near the price the MACD and to be honest any other system is going to falter becasue of the emotion of the market. The MACD tells us very clearly the confusion in that rather poor jagged signals all close to the zero line plus the hectic candles and bunched up EMA's. A few currencies in the recent past have reached strong resistance the best thing to do (for me anyway) is to stay away until a trend is established. Then the MACD gives fantastic signals but the system need to read upon and backtested to get some confidence. I have seen a lot of systems many involving numerous indicators etc in but this system in my mind is the only i would actually class as intelligent trading.
For the people who doubt the MACD system and are just starting out I recommend you look back the history on MT4 using the f12 key to advance one candle at a time. I have read and listened to Phils notes many many many times as i am sure many others have as well ( approaching 4k posts in the space of a few months!!) and read and tried to digest other very switched on successful contributors threads on the system. Look at the MACD when in a defined trend and when near strong resistance so you too can know when to enter and when to stay out.
. in your roundup phil you stated that some people were unhappy about the MACD systemI think when VERY strong resitsnace is near the price the MACD and to be honest any other system is going to falter becasue of the emotion of the market. The MACD tells us very clearly the confusion in that rather poor jagged signals all close to the zero line plus the hectic candles and bunched up EMA's. A few currencies in the recent past have reached strong resistance the best thing to do (for me anyway) is to stay away until a trend is established. Then the MACD gives fantastic signals but the system need to read upon and backtested to get some confidence. I have seen a lot of systems many involving numerous indicators etc in but this system in my mind is the only i would actually class as intelligent trading.
For the people who doubt the MACD system and are just starting out I recommend you look back the history on MT4 using the f12 key to advance one candle at a time. I have read and listened to Phils notes many many many times as i am sure many others have as well ( approaching 4k posts in the space of a few months!!) and read and tried to digest other very switched on successful contributors threads on the system. Look at the MACD when in a defined trend and when near strong resistance so you too can know when to enter and when to stay out.