DOW - PA, Stops and hedging

Both gaps closed, ready for the next week
Looks like mS2D to mR1D if DOW gets to 34500

PA/ Market structure worked well in relation to the WRB, The leading WRB, on 15sec is pure Marubozu candle, with no wicks, but on M1 and M1, M5 M30 it is also impressive.
Followed by reaction to the last day's Low and last session close, creating an evening star, and rather orderly move down first from mR1D to the Daily pivot, and followed father to mS1D and well below at the closing minutes of the NYSE session. All PA within the LEAD Bearish WRB (Bearish Moribozu), below the weekly VWAP, and much of the down move also below the Daily VWAP,

IMHO WRB ( Morubozu) are an important part of market structure and adds certain exactness to the levels of entries and exits.

High volatility before and during the triple witching Friday. No surprises there.
Squaring positions of longer term options.

Reasonable high volume versus little result during the last NYSE session

WRB, Outside Bar few examples on DOW chart

DOW at poss rotation zone




Gaps and lower Volume on the chart below

DOW filled the intersession gap created yesterday, today's higher volume is telling something

There is a possibility for a symmetrical 1 to 1 move down, the red box Fib ext 224, from the first impulsive move. if so the red box is around the first decade of Febr 22

The structure and PA could easily be an M1, M5 or M30 TF without the vertical lines, and price levels.
224 Fib Ext is very common for DAX and DOW, DOW often reaches 261.8 Fib Ext of the first impulsive move , which in this case will create a double bottom, sometime in February.
Funymentals might enhance the move down aided by the Capital Hill, and "the progressive" statements like the one below.
https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2022...already-exist/

After that corrective - if that happens, we shall see- Happy days again, the summer's earnings, solid companies are likely to do well, and the defense linked ones shall continue to do well, "in spite" of the current war. Inflation eventually will filter in creating big numbers on Wall Street, so not the end of the world, just more of the same, as they say- buy in May and forget for a while.
In any case there are going to be plenty opportunities to make good profits trading all TFs, just using the common sense and follow the market, being well focused on PA and bar patterns forming the structure. May the candles light our path!

DOW retested sessions LL on daily structure
Possibility to extend LH into 34K territory before the next step down to the next LL which might resemble previous move down with the red TL

set an order to sell DOW March Futures corresponding to cash futures at 33950, and 34K, it is an addition to existing position.

Wishing all a Very Happy Christmas!
2be

Bar charts with M candles
Below are three charts with M candles of that same instrument
purposefully I have removed price, time and TF identity to avoid any additional suggestive element/s
above is a ratio of 1 to 5
above is a ratio of 1 to 7
above is a ratio of 1 to 8

Just M candles without any MAs
ratio 1 to 5

ratio 1 to 7 ratio 1 to 8

The reason foe this exercise is to indicate the importance of bar patterns and how market structure is composed
The importance of outside bar, inside bar, WRB, evening star, morning star formations

Protective stop established on this short position on DOW Mar 23 futures PT below 33k.
NYSE Sessions only OHLC candles, compared with a Daily OHLC candles
Bearish outside candle, good bearish shadow encompassing several previous bars, span of that candle is bigger that previous six bars, forming an evening star, it all tells the story.
DOW is still obeying the Pinocchio bar of 13th Dec, pay attention to that week of the tipple witching Fri (Dec 2022), some call it Santa Clause rally, and do not confuse it with Christmas Rally, whatever it means.
Tomorrow is the 3rd Friday of January, so not surprising that good moves are there clearly displayed.

So far Dow has not filled the gaps
Gap to the last NYSE close
Gap to the last NYSE session Low

All that looks bearish for a while while over all DOW is still very bullish on high TFs

These gaps are sure preparations to go Long when PA indicates, but NOT YET!!!!



APP (Alternate Price Projection) Cleared the chart so it is easier to see
1 to 1 symmetrical move possible, so ABC might be accomplished. 1 to 1 is a conservative zone, but taking profit there sounds reasonable, depending on a PA in that zone. There can be a "Failed ABC", otherwise the the minimum target is 31842, APP of 0.618

Triple Witching Fridays, and 3rd Fridays every month

I am looking for a coder to create a simple indicator for MT4 showing the following:

Spring Triple witching Friday, Third Fri in March, Colour Green, continuous vertical line line
Third Fri in April, Colour Green, vertical line dotted
Third Fri in May, Colour Green, vertical line interspaced

Summer Triple witching Friday, Third Fri in June, Colour Red, continuous vertical line line
Third Fri in July, Colour Red, vertical line dotted
Third Fri in August, Colour Red, vertical line interspaced



Autumn Triple witching Friday, Third Fri in September, Colour Yellow, continuous vertical line line
Third Fri in October, Colour Yellow, vertical line dotted
Third Fri in November, Colour Yellow, vertical line interspaced


Winter Triple witching Friday, Third Fri in December, Colour Blue, continuous vertical line line
Third Fri in January, Colour Yellow, vertical line dotted
Third Fri in February, Colour Yellow, vertical line interspaced

Below is a link to a useful video, indeed PA during the Triple Witching Fridays is relatively contained within reasonable range bordering often on less than preceding days range.
The video looks at Triple Witching Fridays for 20 years, useful information, but it misses the immediately preceding and following days, and these days, especially preceding days of these Fridays have often very large ranges.


This indicator will enable me to have an organised look at the Triple Witching Fridays, and third Fridays of every month which are not Triple Witching Quarterly Fridays, and the days immediately preceding and following these Fridays. When applied to historical data, I shall get some possibly very useful statistics which can be implemented into trading, having the future Fridays indicated by these vertical lines displayed on the chart.

Remember the earning season. https://www.ii.co.uk/investing-with-...arnings-season

Gap to yesterdays NYSE session Low not been filled filled
Gap to yesterdays NYSE session close has nor been filled
If you are interested in Pivots have a look at the videos, links below
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...ow-with-missed?

I have observed that PA before these 3rd Fridays is very volatile, and have posted that observations many times, however I would like some more statistical observation, allowing an approach based on these stats.
With the colour variation the four Quarters are easily recognised and the different styles of the vertical lines will make it easy which particular third Friday of the month is displayed.

Have created Template with vertical lines indicating these 3rd Fridays with additional two white lines for 4th of July and Thanksgiving.
Have slightly amended the colours and type of the vertical lines.
The vertical lines been projected to the end of 2024, set to 17.00 GMT which corresponds to 12.00 ET, exact expiry time (11.59am ET)
Other things that one uses can be easily added to this TPL and saved as a particular new TPL.









Wishing good trading to all,
2be

Chart below tells the story, Fri 20 Jan 2023, third Fri of January
Yellow vertical lines are Daily pivots, Fri 20th Jan is still to be visited, that pivot is close to the intersession gap (filled but still a zone to take into account)

PA has been indicating good entries on shorter TFs, however, my perspective have also been augmented by few observed insights often useful in trading indices, DOW included.
This is still "earning season" and DOW likes to make large moves in all direction eventually finishing positive on these days, getting well above the last session close. The gap has been well filled with a good overspill. Wednesday was not an exception, but the final move up came after the FOMC chairman speech, which did not signal anything drastically new, since the reaction of many points. Then META earnings after the close, and now DOW is setting similar dance for Thursday session. I almost posted similar post last night, but thought twice and have not done it.
Tomorrow is a good day for similar action as big companies are declaring earnings. So like at the last several Earning days, Dow might go well below the NYSE session close, and eventually finish high, hitting a good pivot zones well above the daily Pivot, or FIB RET/EXT if one uses them.
https://www.ii.co.uk/investing-with-...arnings-season

M15,M5 M1 gearing have really indicated well the expected move up, especially the mid session one and the final move up and down in preparation for Thursday.
I usually enter the initial trade on M1/M2 and then manage it looking on additional TF like M5 and M15/M30.
M5 is a very useful in fast moving moments, keeping an eye on volatility index and USD index, just in case there is something unusual happening there.

Just a game and dance the PA does, which have very little to do with whats going with economy long term.
One has to lough at some comments made on CNBC or Bloomberg, but CNBC useful for news/data release, which is fast enough for me.

So far DOW is following the path, DOW down 140tish points -0.41% while S&P500 is up +0.38% and NASDAQ up +1.2%, where is DOW more likely to go?
DAX up +1.3% as well