Volman meets Burke or My journey with PA | Page 77 | Forex Factory

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Volman meets Burke or My journey with PA

  • #1,521
  • Jan 16, 2023 1:39pm Jan 16, 2023 1:39pm
Quoting spzd
{quote} Almost enough to give ya a headache ...
.........and 'kill zone' I discovered starts at 7am not 8am UK time. Mines a beer please Mark
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #1,522
  • Jan 16, 2023 2:08pm Jan 16, 2023 2:08pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} .........and 'kill zone' I discovered starts at 7am not 8am UK time. Mines a beer please Mark
ICT name. Is that not the Frankfurt time.


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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,523
  • Jan 16, 2023 2:41pm Jan 16, 2023 2:41pm
Quoting spzd
{quote} ICT name. Is that not the Frankfurt time. {image}
Yes it is..........thanks, l'll just get the bottle opener
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #1,524
  • Jan 16, 2023 5:23pm Jan 16, 2023 5:23pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Yes it is..........thanks, l'll just get the bottle opener
your post and picture reminded me of Grand Old Shells beer ... still being brewed in New Ulm Minnesota.

Back in the late 60's a local radio station had a contest .
First Place was a Day and a Night in New Ulm including a tour of the brewery, a visit to the statue of Herman the Great and a stay at the Historic Grand Hotel.
Second Place was two days in New Ulm .
  • #1,525
  • Jan 16, 2023 9:50pm Jan 16, 2023 9:50pm
Quoting spzd
{quote} Here is where I differ from most who use moving averages, whether as a main focus or as an aid. I view the market in a somewhat abstract way because it makes it easier for me. The MA can be looked at as a derivative of price. A derivative for this purpose is a unique entity that "derives" its value from some other entity. Through a mathematical formula a moving average is derived from a price value (close, typical, high, low, etc). The MA can then be considered a proxy (a figure that can be used to represent the value of something) for price....
The two longe term MAs are both representing the Hourly time frame.

The EMA is the 25-ema of the H1 and is mainly used to help see the larger moves.

The LT-H (long term Hull) is a good representation of the H1 swings. You can make this out as you follow the waves through its arches and troughs. When in an arch period, it will act as resistance, and when in a trough period, it will act as support (keeping in mind that all things can and will at times fail ).

The two large arrows point out areas where these MAs went basically flat. This is indication that price is in some form of consolidation. I would argue that the oscillating behavior of price around the ema is a form of consolidation.

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My definition of swing likely differs from others.

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The indices will almost always have the period from overnight open to pre-US session where price is in a range. There will be exceptions to this.

Then when the volume comes in for the equities during the US session price can get hectic at times.

With volume for the MNQ at 279,346 as of 2006 CST I would say it is liquid enough to trade. No moves like the day, but large enough to make it all worth my while.

edit: Still debating on the currencies. They work essentially the same. Will at least post some examples now and then.

From aprox 0330 UTC to 0445 UTC is lunch at the TSE. Check your charts during/around this period and see if it often "slows".
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,526
  • Jan 17, 2023 1:34am Jan 17, 2023 1:34am
The market is a bitch (mess) when in a consolidation. But from another perspective, it is so easy to pick/trade the tops and bottoms.

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Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #1,527
  • Jan 17, 2023 8:57am Jan 17, 2023 8:57am
Quoting fxpider
The market is a bitch (mess) when in a consolidation. But from another perspective, it is so easy to pick/trade the tops and bottoms. {image}
As long as the consolidation is wide enough to trade in that manner.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,528
  • Jan 17, 2023 1:32pm Jan 17, 2023 1:32pm
Quoting spzd
{quote} The two longe term MAs are both representing the Hourly time frame. The EMA is the 25-ema of the H1 and is mainly used to help see the larger moves. The LT-H (long term Hull) is a good representation of the H1 swings. You can make this out as you follow the waves through its arches and troughs. When in an arch period, it will act as resistance, and when in a trough period, it will act as support (keeping in mind that all things can and will at times fail ). The two large arrows point out areas where these MAs went basically...
A couple of charts to emphasize the importance of the First Hour for each session in creating either a high or low or basic boundaries for a range.

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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,529
  • Jan 17, 2023 1:56pm Jan 17, 2023 1:56pm
Quoting spzd
{quote} A couple of charts to emphasize the importance of the First Hour for each session in creating either a high or low or basic boundaries for a range. {image} {image}
Asia sets the initial boundaries. London then works with that and either expands or contracts those boundaries. Which exactly I never really know until they do it. Then the volatile time of the day with the US session.

Today Asia set the initial high and low. The high just above yesterday's 0930 NY open. London then solidified the low. Price was bound by London FHB. As is normal, the US FHB is large and volatile, with price holding in the bottom of the FHB range.

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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,530
  • Jan 17, 2023 4:10pm Jan 17, 2023 4:10pm
BOJ tonight. May watch a movie.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,531
  • Jan 17, 2023 4:42pm Jan 17, 2023 4:42pm
Quoting spzd
BOJ tonight. May watch a movie.

Gonna be interesting, again, I think Mark.

https://www.forexlive.com/centralban...oday-20230115/

At the December meeting the Bank expanded the permitted yield range on 10-year Japanese Government Bonds to +/- 0.5% (from 0.25). The Bank may yet again expand this range (the below zero part of this range is irrelevant) to 0.75bp or even 100bp. There is some speculation that the Bank may abandon the YCC program entirely. A 'do nothing new' decision is also a possibility. Anyone who thinks they know for sure what the BOJ will announce is probably kidding themselves


Well, of course someone (?) "might know in advance" lol, but surely they wouldn't try & take advantage of that info in the markets

Anyways, the best I can find is that the timing of the Policy Announcement will be around 02:30 to 03:30 GMT.


https://www.worldtimebuddy.com/

In the Place or Timezone just add your own city (while a good movie does sound the smartest play hahaaa, we shall see).
  • #1,532
  • Jan 17, 2023 4:53pm Jan 17, 2023 4:53pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Gonna be interesting, again, I think Mark. https://www.forexlive.com/centralban...oday-20230115/ At the December meeting the Bank expanded the permitted yield range on 10-year Japanese Government Bonds to +/- 0.5% (from 0.25). The Bank may yet again expand this range (the below zero part of this range is irrelevant) to 0.75bp or even 100bp. There is some speculation that the Bank may abandon the YCC program entirely. A 'do nothing new' decision is also...
Not sure how this will effect my main instrument - MNQ. Going by the old axiom "better safe than sorry". There is definitely some constriction in price.

Take care
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,533
  • Jan 17, 2023 5:59pm Jan 17, 2023 5:59pm
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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,534
  • Jan 17, 2023 8:02pm Jan 17, 2023 8:02pm
Quoting spzd
{quote} Not sure how this will effect my main instrument - MNQ. Going by the old axiom "better safe than sorry". There is definitely some constriction in price. Take care
If MNQ is your main instrument, do you follow stock market open and close so you can trade at the gaps the stock market makes which are normally always transferred to S&P and MNQ direction.

I would be looking at a possible short on MNQ if the price starts moving down to 392 on SPY.
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,535
  • Jan 17, 2023 8:44pm Jan 17, 2023 8:44pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} If MNQ is your main instrument, do you follow stock market open and close so you can trade at the gaps the stock market makes which are normally always transferred to S&P and MNQ direction. I would be looking at a possible short on MNQ if the price starts moving down to 392 on SPY. {image}
Just got my answer. 70 pts in < 3 minutes.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,536
  • Jan 18, 2023 8:56am Jan 18, 2023 8:56am
No more red data releases for the remainder of the week. The market is now vulnerable to "news" from the #parasiteWEF.

Quoting spzd
No more red data releases for the remainder of the week. The market is now vulnerable to "news" from the #parasiteWEF.
Even so, it will continue in its orderly fashion the way it always does.

News is mainly a reason to move the market to shake out orders. Not every time. Often enough.

Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Sir Winston
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,537
  • Jan 18, 2023 9:10am Jan 18, 2023 9:10am
This week so far on the MES. Range. Everything is set for more up. We shall see.

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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,538
  • Jan 18, 2023 9:12am Jan 18, 2023 9:12am
The problem with an up equities market is the economy basically sucks. There is no reason for it to go up. <- This is what happens when everything becomes political.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,539
  • Jan 18, 2023 9:17am Jan 18, 2023 9:17am
Quoting spzd
No more red data releases for the remainder of the week. The market is now vulnerable to "news" from the #parasiteWEF. {quote} Even so, it will continue in its orderly fashion the way it always does. News is mainly a reason to move the market to shake out orders. Not every time. Often enough. Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Sir Winston
Should be TWO GOOD days to trade for those, who avoid RED NEWS days? Comparatively easy ( I find) to spot the UNUSUAL PA / the big boy's intentions.
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #1,540
  • Jan 18, 2023 9:23am Jan 18, 2023 9:23am
Quoting fxpider
{quote} Should be TWO GOOD days to trade for those, who avoid RED NEWS days? Comparatively easy ( I find) to spot the UNUSUAL PA / the big boy's intentions.
Easy. Depends.

Spot their moves. Yes. They can only do a few things. I think once you grasp this then you realize "there is order to all this".
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
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