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M1 Countertrend Scalping Strategy

  • #1,621
  • Jan 13, 2023 10:51pm Jan 13, 2023 10:51pm
i think i'm doing this wrong, but it feels right at the moment with only 30:1 leverage

instead of averaging up, i'm averaging down when following the trend, this was my third attempt following on from my first, my second failed due to greed and would of taken a loss live, i let it run in the sim to feel the pain of the drawdown

this was a slow moving trend and difficult to read, but as always, volume analysis helped considerably along with careful price action analysis bar by bar and netted my best simulated profit so far

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every minute matters!
  • #1,622
  • Edited 11:27pm Jan 13, 2023 11:08pm | Edited 11:27pm
Quoting niks
i think i'm doing this wrong, but it feels right at the moment with only 30:1 leverage instead of averaging up, i'm averaging down when following the trend, this was my third attempt following on from my first, my second failed due to greed and would of taken a loss live, i let it run in the sim to feel the pain of the drawdown this was a slow moving trend and difficult to read, but as always, volume analysis helped considerably along with careful price action analysis bar by bar and netted my best simulated profit so far {image} {image}
Nice catch my friend!

I think the only way to know for (almost) sure is to try and get 200 different setups and then judge the overall performance.

Quoting RieseP
{quote} I had no luck with Renko. I think it works better on higher time frames. And it performs better with stock trading i had no luck with small timeframes. However if you do it. I recommend making block sizes anywhere 25-33% of the atr of that time frame.
Thanks for sharing!

Stock trading is very interesting. A japanese trader (Takashi Kotegawa) used volume and very simple setups to turn $13,600 into $153,000,000 in 8 years (very impressive):

Inserted Video


Although it's a bit old (from the 2000's) and markets change a lot, I think it's still worth studying (he used M5 charts BTW).
  • #1,623
  • Edited Jan 14, 2023 1:31am Jan 13, 2023 11:30pm | Edited Jan 14, 2023 1:31am
Quoting Abade
{quote} Nice catch my friend! I think the only way to know for (almost) sure is to try and get 200 different setups and then judge the overall performance.
thanks Abade, good to hear from you! i would say you are 100% correct - running these setups and watching them live is where my focus lies while scraping in a living on the counter trend setups which i'm feeling quite comfortable with at the moment, and to be honest mate, since discovering your thread, i'm now a lot more confident with them, so thanks again

this was the one that failed, i picked it wrong and would of closed around the yellow circle if it was live for sure - the drawdown was sustainable throughout that period if one was brave enough to wait it out

it was my counter trade in the blue circle after that which i missed due to greed!

i let it run to my third attempt i talked about in my previous post, never like taking a loss, even in the sim!

197 to go!

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every minute matters!
  • #1,624
  • Jan 14, 2023 2:46am Jan 14, 2023 2:46am
as i mentioned before great thread and strategy,Dealing with FXmarkets.I Read all the posts then reread it again for cpfleger posts as he is one of the best performing in concepts and approach of counter trending scalping in this thread. so i want to mention something, in his way of money management after enter his first position.

I noticed that when he have good set up were price pierce the 9 ema and RSI intersect and hikinashi candle reverse and he enter his first trade after 1 candle in profit have closed , he continue adding up for every candle going toward the target 20 EMA so this a good way of managing risk and have more confidence that he is going to hit the target but in comparison of kof style of trading were he cost average and buy more as price going against him which can lead to loss if he faces a big trend against his positions.

i have seen cpfleger add as price reverses and wait for retaurn after a while but i think we can simply stop adding trades to a losing position if we are not comfortable so in this case we accept to loss but with much less entries and minimal DD.
  • #1,625
  • Jan 14, 2023 3:36am Jan 14, 2023 3:36am
Quoting niks
{quote} which system is that?
this system is essential the 1% strategy by King of Forex or KoF
  • #1,626
  • Jan 14, 2023 5:20am Jan 14, 2023 5:20am
I used this indicator for a long time. It repaints but it is usefull.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Zee_SupportResistance V1.0.ex4   33 KB | 356 downloads
  • #1,627
  • Jan 14, 2023 10:03am Jan 14, 2023 10:03am
Hi my friends. Below is the list of the people I decided to accept to follow me through the challange. I choosed the members that have actively contribuited to this thread. I am not sure that I will able to start it on monday, but as soon as I will start I will contact you to join me.

abade
niks
cpfleger
mansan
olarion1975
josh1111
ahmed30
chucun
elsaloon
mario777
  • #1,628
  • Jan 14, 2023 10:08am Jan 14, 2023 10:08am
Quoting chhico
Hi my friends. Below is the list of the people I decided to accept to follow me through the challange. I choosed the members that have actively contribuited to this thread. I am not sure that I will able to start it on monday, but as soon as I will start I will contact you to join me. abade niks cpfleger mansan olarion1975 josh1111 ahmed30 chucun elsaloon mario777
Hi Chhico,
I woke up to great news.
Thank you, you are appreciated..
  • #1,629
  • Jan 14, 2023 3:53pm Jan 14, 2023 3:53pm
Really liking this system. I've been caught on XAUUSD which seems to not be a good match for this strategy.

I noticed we are judging distance by "good enough" or by our own discretion and I personally have been exploring some ways that I could quantify this and be alerted so that I don't have to feel glued to the screen constantly as I am a part time trader.

How about the distance in pips of the 200 moving average to the current price? We can configure MADash with just M1 and 200 MA across whichever pairs we want set a threshold and keep an eye on one dashboard.

Check out MADash: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...3#post13330853

In doing some testing anything above 100 pips MA Distance to 200 EMA on M1 seems to be a good spot but more testing is needed and I have only done some testing on EURUSD.

Would love to hear others thoughts. Happy trading and many pips to all!
  • #1,630
  • Jan 14, 2023 6:13pm Jan 14, 2023 6:13pm
Quoting Verocity
Really liking this system. I've been caught on XAUUSD which seems to not be a good match for this strategy. I noticed we are judging distance by "good enough" or by our own discretion and I personally have been exploring some ways that I could quantify this and be alerted so that I don't have to feel glued to the screen constantly as I am a part time trader. How about the distance in pips of the 200 moving average to the current price? We can configure MADash with just M1 and 200 MA across whichever pairs we want set a threshold and keep an eye...
Hi Verocity, i am experimenting for long time with that , in this post i am using ema 200 with lvls 180/-180 ( in pips) https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...7?d=1670683296 and I was using an indicator that alerts me when the price hits a level say 200 or 300, but that indicator was in my old laptop can’t find it. The same question arises, the sweet spot is not for all currencies, we must experiment with that, and also need some more confirmation plus the distance from ema 20 i would say,and how many candles did not reach ema20, but overall I think the idea is good. All the best
Make your own rules and stick to it.
  • #1,631
  • Jan 14, 2023 6:46pm Jan 14, 2023 6:46pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Chucun Here is two charts, Top - EURUSD from spot forex showing MT5 volume Bottom - EU6H23 which is the EURUSD Futures Version showing Futures Volume. Spot EURUSD & Futures EU6H23 are both connected by swaps, creating a way to measure volume as if it came from a centralized exchange. You can trade spot EURUSD and borrow the signals off the Futures version and you can be sure its accurate representation as seen on a histogram indicator. Just use ClusterDelta on MT4 or MT5 and your back in the game. This was from yesterday's open on EURUSD...

As promised, I looked into Clusterdelta to compare the volumes from mt4 vs a futures market. To determine if the futures' volume add any benefit to my trading. The images below show a vast difference from mt4 to futures volume; I've tried to use the future's volume to help validate or invalidate a trade, counter trending and trending, correlate the candle to volume; futures' volume does not add anything to my analysis, the mt4/mt5 tick volume might just represent the forex market more accurate than the futures. The Forex market is the #1 financial market, The future's might just be a segment/slice from the actual traded volume by the entire forex industry. Just my opinion.

Volume on future, show the extreme peaks and valleys (highs and lows) of the volume but lacks the minute-by-minute data to assist with price action. However, they are similar in at least one way, they do correlate when the highest and the lowest volume hits the market. But it does not provide much data when those peaks and valleys are not in the market.

Rick, I don't see a benefit to using clusterdelta volume data to help me make better decisions.

Anyone can provide their feedback. Let me know if you guys want different images to help.

Tick volume for me wins hands down.
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  • #1,632
  • Jan 14, 2023 7:07pm Jan 14, 2023 7:07pm
Quoting Chucun
{quote} As promised, I looked into Clusterdelta to compare the volumes from mt4 vs a futures market. To determine if the futures' volume add any benefit to my trading. The images below show a vast difference from mt4 to futures volume; I've tried to use the future's volume to help validate or invalidate a trade, counter trending and trending, correlate the candle to volume; futures' volume does not add anything to my analysis, the mt4/mt5 tick volume might just represent the forex market more accurate than the futures. The Forex market is the #1...
Hi Chucun

I respect the time you took to look into the differences between Forex & Futures volume.
Just remember that Tick volume is not volume, rather it's a measure of tick activity which may actually be more use to you as a trader anyway.

We all see different things of course and either information may be of more use to a trader than the other.

Here's my take
Futures volume makes you realise that most of the time, there is very little liquidity within the market (talking both forex & futures)
That is because they are connected by swaps so Big players can trade on Forex and hedge cheaper on Futures.
For trend traders, if you trade with a trend when futures volume stays above X amount of volume, you normally win.
If you fade when future volume mostly remains below X amount, you normally win.

Thats an 80% win rate where you use futures volume to trade forex.

Is that good enough for most traders?

Best of luck with your trading Chucun and use what works for you best.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,633
  • Jan 15, 2023 12:53am Jan 15, 2023 12:53am
Quoting chhico
I am not sure that I will able to start it on monday, but as soon as I will start I will contact you to join me
thank you, looking forward to it
every minute matters!
  • #1,634
  • Jan 15, 2023 1:02am Jan 15, 2023 1:02am
Quoting Verocity
Really liking this system. I've been caught on XAUUSD which seems to not be a good match for this strategy. I noticed we are judging distance by "good enough" or by our own discretion and I personally have been exploring some ways that I could quantify this and be alerted so that I don't have to feel glued to the screen constantly... Would love to hear others thoughts.
hi, here's couple of thoughts, the strategy is a good match but needs to be applied differently to how it is being discussed here for it to be successful according to the author - and yes this is discretionary trading which requires you to be glued to the screen, it cannot be scripted, also according to the author

and just a final thought, even if you quantify it to produce an alert, by the time you react it may be too late, and if not, you will not have the "feel" of the market backing your decisions...
every minute matters!
  • #1,635
  • Jan 15, 2023 10:23am Jan 15, 2023 10:23am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Chucun I respect the time you took to look into the differences between Forex & Futures volume. Just remember that Tick volume is not volume, rather it's a measure of tick activity which may actually be more use to you as a trader anyway. We all see different things of course and either information may be of more use to a trader than the other. Here's my take Futures volume makes you realise that most of the time, there is very little liquidity within the market (talking both forex & futures) That is because they are connected by swaps...
RickM,

Thank you and best of luck to you as well.

Thanks for the additional details. Yes I have a decent understanding of tick volume (every tick movement in the price register as 1 tick volume). Correct me if I'm wrong in my interpretation. I guess the magic in using futures volume is knowing what the # volume is that typically identfies a trend. Obviously that magic # will be different for every tradable asset.

I will look at it from your perspective. Can you provide a pair or asset that you have identified and correlated; when the volume is greater than x volume it typically trends?

Thanks
  • #1,636
  • Jan 15, 2023 10:57am Jan 15, 2023 10:57am
Things going out of road and seems many versions fight here. Original idea is good but will be in short time backstage as so many other systems in forexfactory.
A one hint for filtering early trades out can be waiting for the third trendline touch, before ever concider take trades.

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Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #1,637
  • Jan 15, 2023 11:32am Jan 15, 2023 11:32am
Quoting Abade
Hi guys, I hope you all are doing great! Has anyone tried using renko instead of time candles for the EMA strategy?: {image} If you have, feel free to share your experiences with it.
I have. Doesn't work well. You lose some resolution with bigger box sizes and it's too much noise (ironically) with smaller box sizes. You're more likely to get caught in a strong trend. I know because I've done a lot of work with Renko over the years, including writing bots and buying the OVO package to backtest renko accurately but you're welcome to try.
Leave the Gun, Take the Armani
  • #1,638
  • Jan 15, 2023 11:38am Jan 15, 2023 11:38am
MT5 - practicing Crypto's on a sunday.... staying sharp.
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  • #1,639
  • Jan 15, 2023 11:48am Jan 15, 2023 11:48am
Watching and learning...
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  • #1,640
  • Jan 15, 2023 11:51am Jan 15, 2023 11:51am
EMA Strategy works even on the large spread of Bitcoin...
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