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Volman meets Burke or My journey with PA

  • #1,501
  • Jan 11, 2023 9:59pm Jan 11, 2023 9:59pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Ahhh yes I get it now, cheers for the update on the micro e-minis/futures. And yes ma's are absolutely great for the visuals for sure, while with PA then used as the decision making centre. Once you saw ! Great phrase. You don't know how good it is for me to hear words like this, as I firmly believe once we "see what we always needed to see" about all this stuff, that we will never NOT see it again, ever (nice). Thus the peace. WE also acknowledge I am sure that we cannot know explicitly what the market will do NEXT in a coming reasonable...
I have no delusions that I have everything down perfect. Tonight proves that. I still have #4 and #5 times. Had one last night where no sooner than I had adjusted the SL closer to a more reasonable level with price, then bam and I'm sitting there all

What I do have is what suits me perfect.

I'm not even sure how I would respond to another's enquiry without referencing how I do things. Then you never know if they listen.

Me, I listen and read. Some charts look so good I am almost jealous Many I don't agree with. But that is trading. Wouldn't be any fun if it were all smooth.

GJ 30 pips in 11 minutes. Who could complain about that.

Take care
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,502
  • Jan 11, 2023 10:23pm Jan 11, 2023 10:23pm
Quoting spzd
{quote}
GJ 30 pips in 11 minutes. Who could complain about that. Take care

Great trade Mark, your GJ sell early in Asia WITH the ma's and with the market was the preferred trade.
(I studied my charts after the moves had begun and missed the first stage,
then I went looking for pullback spots at the .250 and .000,
I would rather have been with the initial sell move )
  • #1,503
  • Jan 11, 2023 11:26pm Jan 11, 2023 11:26pm
Dealing with another who has mental issues ...

Step out the front door like a ghost
Into the fog where no one notices the
Contrast of white on white.
And in between the moon and you the angels
Get a better view of the crumbling
Difference between wrong and right.
I walk in the air, between the rain,
Through myself and back again where?
I Don't know
Maria says she's dying, through the door
I hear her crying why? I don't know
Round here we always stand up straight
Round here something radiates
Maria came from Nashville with a suitcase in her hand
She said she'd like to
Meet a boy who looks like Elvis.
She walks along the edge of where the ocean meets
The land just like she's
Walking on a wire in the circus.
She parks her car outside of my house
And takes her clothes off, says she's
Close to understanding Jesus.
She knows she's more than just a little misunderstood,
She has trouble acting Normal when she's nervous.
Round here we're carving out our names
Round here we all look the same
Round here we talk just like lions, but we sacrifice like lambs
Round here she's slipping through my hands
Oh sleeping children better run like the wind,
Out of the lightning dream
Mama's little baby better get herself in out of the lightning
She says "it's only in my head."
She says "shh, I know it's only in my head."
But the girl on the car in the parking lot says
"man, you should try to take a
Shot. can't you see my walls are crumblin'"
Then she looks up at the building
And says she's thinkin' of jumping. she says
She's tired of life, she must be tired of something.
Round here she's always on my mind
Round here (hey man)i got lots of time
Round here we're never sent to bed early and nobody makes us wait
Round here we stay up very, very, very, very late.
I can't see nothing, nothing round here (oh)
Won't you catch me if I'm falling?
Won't you catch me if I'm falling?
Won't you catch me 'cause I'm falling down on you.
See I'm under the gun round here
Oh man I said I'm under the gun round here
And I can't see nothing, nothing round here.

Inserted Video



(take my word)
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,504
  • Jan 12, 2023 1:48am Jan 12, 2023 1:48am
The Crows - quite a beautiful song
  • #1,505
  • Edited 11:27am Jan 12, 2023 11:16am | Edited 11:27am
At the magic 4000 during regular trading on the MES.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,506
  • Edited 2:49pm Jan 13, 2023 1:30pm | Edited 2:49pm
Quoting spzd
MA setup for the M5/M1 M5 20-Hull 60-Hull 240-Hull 300-ema M5 100-Hull (= 20) 300-Hull (= 60) 1200-Hull (= 240) 1600-ema (= 300)
These MAs are placed on a "levels" framework. This consists of

Current Daily, Weekly, Monthly Open
Previous Daily, Weekly, Monthly Highs/Lows
Keep track of current highs and lows (indicators suck at this)
For US indices there is a 0930 NY open and a 1600 NY close. Both are important (more so than H/L).
For currencies, 25 pip price levels (yeah it's like a grid, but that is how price moves - in steps with bursts, usually aided by some news).
I use a 10 point price level for the MES/MNQ. Have not found an indi that works to give me 25 point levels (everybody codes for currencies and essentially nothing else).

Vertical time lines

Asia start 1900 NY
London start 0300 NY
US start 0930 NY

These times are the start of the equities markets. These are the times to start the First Hour Box. These times are actually very important as equities are what drive everything else. Equities the most direct representation in the markets of the companies that make up economies.
Any other vertical lines that may help. Since I am short term and need to be out of the market before close/rollover, I have a line to warn me to go flat.
I have a few others to let me know where I am in the session. This way I don't have to worry about the real time - vs my trading periods.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,507
  • Jan 13, 2023 1:46pm Jan 13, 2023 1:46pm
Going over the entire method using this past week. Even though I know what to do. I don't always do it.

As usual, no rest for those who want to succeed at this endeavor.

Quoting spzd
Going over the entire method using this past week. Even though I know what to do. I don't always do it. As usual, no rest for those who want to succeed at this endeavor.
My thinking is if I can cement in my head at this stage are the initial (mini) swing entries. Continuation entries will be an ongoing learning process.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,508
  • Jan 13, 2023 3:10pm Jan 13, 2023 3:10pm
Quoting spzd
{quote} These MAs are placed on a "levels" framework. This consists of Current Daily, Weekly, Monthly Open Previous Daily, Weekly, Monthly Highs/Lows Keep track of current highs and lows (indicators suck at this) For US indices there is a 0930 NY open and a 1600 NY close. Both are important (more so than H/L). For currencies, 25 pip price levels (yeah it's like a grid, but that is how price moves - in steps with bursts, usually aided by some news). I use a 10 point price level for the MES/MNQ. Have not found an indi that works to give me 25 point...
What this does is give me not only where price has been with reference to opens, highs, and lows without the need to constantly go to another higher TF chart or zoomed out chart. With the M1 and M5 on the screen together, I like to have it set to my trading zoom and leave it (using mt5 [which is a dumbed down platform, but where I can more easily get the few indis to set my charts up] I have to make minor adjustments as time goes on).

I have both static (levels) and dynamic (moving averages) support and resistance. Static levels are more likely to hold over dynamic.

I trade the MNQ in the evening and the MES during the day. I have settled on the GBP/JPY as the currency pair on the other laptop. Everything is set to one click trading with size, initial stop, and initial target. Once in the trade I will adjust the stop and target as needed.

Once price moves (and it will - usually ) I follow using price itself. Often the more aggressive last bar method.

I am nowhere near being even a half-assed PA trader. That's why I gave in and put the MAs on my charts. I am a realist. Seeing that it could take possibly years to truly learn the art of price action trading, I opted for what I know. At this juncture I doubt I will ever trade a naked chart. Is that bad? Not really.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,509
  • Jan 13, 2023 3:50pm Jan 13, 2023 3:50pm
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} I have found Modifying my Fib Tool lets me draw any Grid Size I need Also lets me add to the chart as many times as i see fit and above all stays in place as I change Timeframes {image} {image} {image} {image}
I know what you're saying. That method does not give me what I want. The indi I use works for FX. It works on the futures charts, does not give the quarter levels. So I have learned to adjust. Smaller level sizes works better on short term indices anyways.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,510
  • Jan 13, 2023 4:12pm Jan 13, 2023 4:12pm
Quoting OAPDave
There are Times that Small timeframes are not always the answer ps This might help with your levels {image} {file}
My mindset, small time frames are always the answer.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,511
  • Jan 13, 2023 4:24pm Jan 13, 2023 4:24pm
Nice work above Mark & Dave, we each find our own way and that's what counts in this biz, well done.
  • #1,512
  • Jan 13, 2023 5:28pm Jan 13, 2023 5:28pm
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} Mark It's Fantastic to have the ability to sit in front of the screen and trade successfully on small timeframes But It's also very very satisfying to Plan a trade and walk away from the screen If that can be mastered You can Earn why you Play
Valid point. Again, it's mindset.

I am to the point where I either trade or invest. Trading for me is what I am describing my journey here in this thread. At the end of my day I am 100% flat. Investing is buying dividend stocks of what I consider good long lasting companies and holding those stocks.


The message has gotten blurred between the two. And when the talking heads on the box blur this line, you know the #Algo controllers have approved.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,513
  • Jan 13, 2023 6:20pm Jan 13, 2023 6:20pm
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} Totally agree with your point of view All I am showing is simply you can scalp off Bigger Time frames This example is I admit (after timing) Who on earth would Trade this pair Its been stuck in a range for a number of years But does have some good Entries ? Leave it at that, as we both know there is NO HOLY GRAIL {image} {image} {image} {image}
With a tight enough spread almost anything can be traded.

There actually IS a holy grail. You.

As long as you can see and think you can create some way to profit from the markets. Some catch on quick. Others (me) take longer before it clicks. Never close your mind to a concept that may help.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,514
  • Jan 13, 2023 9:59pm Jan 13, 2023 9:59pm
Quoting spzd
{quote} What this does is give me not only where price has been with reference to opens, highs, and lows without the need to constantly go to another higher TF chart or zoomed out chart. With the M1 and M5 on the screen together, I like to have it set to my trading zoom and leave it (using mt5 [which is a dumbed down platform, but where I can more easily get the few indis to set my charts up] I have to make minor adjustments as time goes on). I have both static (levels) and dynamic (moving averages) support and resistance. Static levels are more...
Going to start with the two longer term MAs, the 240-Hull and the 300-ema. The ema is the dynamic representation of the H1 25-ema. I chose that from Volman. I have tried it and the 20-ema as used by many and either one would work. The 240-Hull is the dynamic representation of the H1 20-Hull. This is based on progression with the 20-Hull as the base. From the M5, multiply x3 to get M15, multiply x12 to get H1. For the M1 I use what I call reverse progression to get MA parameters where the MAs are close to the M5.

The EMA acts just like any other longer-term MA. The LT-Hull, being a Hull MA, is the long term swing indi. Like all Hull MAs, it is more sensitive to price movement, but being 240 periods does lag. Following are pics of the three instruments, MES, MEQ, and GJ for the week of 9 Jan 2023 to 13 Jan 2023. Notice how similar the two index charts are.

(Next post will discuss some behavioral patterns of MAs as I zoom in closer.)

MES

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: @MESM5-wk2023.01.08-1.png Size: 40 KB

MNQ

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: @MNQM5-wk2023.01.08-1.png Size: 42 KB

GJ

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM5-wk2023.01.08-1.png Size: 43 KB


A side by side comparison of the M5 and H1 of the LT-Hull and EMA

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MNQ-2023.01.13-compare M5H1.png Size: 43 KB
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,515
  • Jan 14, 2023 3:02am Jan 14, 2023 3:02am
Quoting spzd
{quote} With a tight enough spread almost anything can be traded. There actually IS a holy grail. You. As long as you can see and think you can create some way to profit from the markets. Some catch on quick. Others (me) take longer before it clicks. Never close your mind to a concept that may help.
Your'e on the right idea trading the smallest time frames, don't let those long time frame loonies get under your skin.
Remember you can trade MES on MT5 via a futures broker and you pay no spread, just a contact round week which is nothing much.

On a 1 tick win on ESH23 (S&P) you pocket $12 and the cost will be $4.40 (using cheap broker) giving you a nice profit of $7.60 for a 1 tick win.
MES on the same strategy will pay 32 cents profit (a bit of a con job is the micro). Thats using a limit order in & out of course.

Now are you seeing the possibilities of trading the smallest time frame?

You can use your MA's to pick the sweet spots and thrash the market with short trades preset for limit orders in & out.

Every trading day, I warm up for trading by doing Tick drills on my favourite S&P timeframe which is the 3 second chart. That means I sit there and just hamper the bids or the asks using preset hot keys that target either the Bid or Ask for the profit.

Sound a bit extreme?

Perhaps but its an easy way (few months of skill trading) to get a quick $500 US profit under your belt before you start sourcing longer trade setups to really get some good money.

As for levels, an split VP indicator will pinpoint exactly what level you can trade off. Thats a VP that shows you where most of the Asks are executing from or where most of the Bids are executing from. No need for any other time frames to understand major trend - although I actually can't think of one pro I have talked too that doesn't have a higher time frame to judge trend from - it's a lot quicker then zooming out before you zoom back in again.

Excuse me budding in as I'm baby sitting tonight and bored.
Carry on posting your chart ideas.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,516
  • Jan 14, 2023 8:44am Jan 14, 2023 8:44am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Your'e on the right idea trading the smallest time frames, don't let those long time frame loonies get under your skin. Remember you can trade MES on MT5 via a futures broker and you pay no spread, just a contact round week which is nothing much. On a 1 tick win on ESH23 (S&P) you pocket $12 and the cost will be $4.40 (using cheap broker) giving you a nice profit of $7.60 for a 1 tick win. MES on the same strategy will pay 32 cents profit (a bit of a con job is the micro). Thats using a limit order in & out of course. Now...
Hey Rick,

No one here gets under my skin.

Currently trading US futures on mt5. I mentioned it above someplace. Easier to use a few level and MA indis already programmed than to have to search or worse try and write them myself (not the greatest coder either).

The MES may be a bit more expensive to trade, but it offers access to the market for less up front cost. I do not have an account big enough to trade the ES. And, like everyone else, the fees and all went up the first of the year.

3 sec is too small for me. I am comfortable with the TFs I'm on now. Tried all the seconds and tick charts, and range bar charts and all of that my first time through. Dismal failure. I like what I do now.

What I have works, with MAs and all. People are always trying to nudge you in their direction. No big deal as you promote that which you know or do. Me, I just keep trudging on.

Take care and drop by anytime.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,517
  • Jan 14, 2023 1:43pm Jan 14, 2023 1:43pm
Quoting spzd
{quote} Going to start with the two longer term MAs, the 240-Hull and the 300-ema. The ema is the dynamic representation of the H1 25-ema. I chose that from Volman. I have tried it and the 20-ema as used by many and either one would work. The 240-Hull is the dynamic representation of the H1 20-Hull. This is based on progression with the 20-Hull as the base. From the M5, multiply x3 to get M15, multiply x12 to get H1. For the M1 I use what I call reverse progression to get MA parameters where the MAs are close to the M5. The EMA acts just like any...
Here is where I differ from most who use moving averages, whether as a main focus or as an aid. I view the market in a somewhat abstract way because it makes it easier for me. The MA can be looked at as a derivative of price. A derivative for this purpose is a unique entity that "derives" its value from some other entity. Through a mathematical formula a moving average is derived from a price value (close, typical, high, low, etc). The MA can then be considered a proxy (a figure that can be used to represent the value of something) for price. This is an important concept in how I view the market.

The Hull MA is fairly sensitive (because of its formula) to price movement. This results in the Hull behaving much different than many other moving averages. Then I add into the mix equilibrium. At/near the point where price comes to a level or MA is an equilibrium point. It is at these areas where entries can be made. Along with this sensitivity and that it is a proxy for price, the Hull will form wave like patterns (which I have acquainted with cycles, but they are not cycles). These "waves" help to identify the intraday swings.

Much of how I read the market has now evolved to include levels - which are static price points, my set of MAs - which are proxies for price, and price itself. It is how price reacts to these elements in certain ways that make up my method (technically that makes this price action ) As I go through this you will notice some discernible differences between the indices and the currencies. This is a direct result of the makeup of the two instruments and the times in which the vast majority of (I hate to say it ) volume is. The equities are the driving force. Pay mind to the correlation of USD currencies and equities (either direct or inverse) and how some of this correlation carries over into the minor crosses. This is just things to observe (as I do a lot of that with the markets - observe, research, implement <or attempt to>).

When it comes to MAs performing as support or resistance. Let price be the final arbiter (it is anyway). Moving averages always lag. Have yet to see a true non-lagging MA. Because of this lag, MA cross over systems are seriously lacking. Take a moving average that has a greater sensitivity to price movements, then you can start to look at the relationship between price and those moving averages. That is my method.

Charts in the next post.

****If any of this seems broken, only partly defined, or otherwise obtuse it is due to these being concepts in my mond that are seeing print for the first time. Thngs
are not always complete the first few times out.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,518
  • Jan 16, 2023 8:00am Jan 16, 2023 8:00am
Does anyone trade the SP500 prior to the New York Open ( in the UK for example)?
How do you find re profitability and movement ( trendy like the chart here or composed of more ranges than pre New York Open trends) ?
as an aside the US market is on holiday this afternoon - UK time.
Three Minute Chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: US500_2023-01-16_13-56-24_75337.png Size: 137 KB
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #1,519
  • Jan 16, 2023 1:23pm Jan 16, 2023 1:23pm
Daily bias+eqilibrium + break of structure+fat price bar and fvgaps = I'm exhausted
Inserted Video
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #1,520
  • Jan 16, 2023 1:33pm Jan 16, 2023 1:33pm
Quoting turnip15
Daily bias+eqilibrium + break of structure+fat price bar and fvgaps = I'm exhausted https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-9ZQLr9ZU7U
Almost enough to give ya a headache ...
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
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