Short GbpUsd & NzdUsd.
MA Crossover System that works for me
- #243
- Edited 5:02am Jan 9, 2023 4:26am | Edited 5:02am
I hope your heads have cleared after the end-of-year / new year celebrations. And if that was not enough to give you a headache, then this chart certainly will! Welcome back to the first full week of trading for the year.
- #244
- Edited 7:41am Jan 9, 2023 4:39am | Edited 7:41am
The daily is already in a downtrend and so I tried to get in on the continuation. It looks a little bit risky on H4, but the daily gives the larger context. I also used a stop order so that if price had continued up my trade would not have been triggered.
Stopped out at break-even
Stopped out at break-even
I'm hoping to catch the second leg of this new H4 trend. The daily shows a refresh or big pull-back and that could be the beginning of a reversal, if the new highs end up lower than the previous highs, but for now it is bullish and may it continue that way. The weekly is also bullish and looks promising.
- #248
- Edited 6:00am Jan 11, 2023 5:46am | Edited 6:00am
{quote} Hi Josi Thanks for your detailed comments. At first glance it seems I should have placed my buy stop order further up, beyond the area of H4 consolidation. However, as I have said previously, this thread is about learning to use the MAs better, so let me have a think about what you have said.
What have my reflections taught or reminded me?
Even though there is a higher probability of success where the trade is aligned with the bias of the higher time frames, there are still certain things I need to watch out for:
- Choose the entry level carefully so that, where possible, a lengthy pullback leaves me behind and does not trigger the trade.
- Most charts show a sequence of a leg and a refresh. The legs are often of a similar length (like on my screen, literally between 5 and 7 cm from tip to toe), so it's possible to anticipate the next one. I need to stay alert to this - it caught me out today.
{quote} Don't beat yourself up over it - to my mind this could easily have gone the other way on another day (even now it is testing yesterday's low and could still turn); your analysis was valid and as there was no lower low one had to expect a test of yesterday's high. 1. What you call "legs are often of a similar length" is also called MMO (measured move objective) 2. It isn't necessarily "possible to anticipate" this, if newsflow changes, price direction may change. 3. I think - looking only at H4 - the obvious thing to see was the lower high...
To apply the learning about setting the entry level more carefully, this stop order is sitting neatly below the recent consolidation on H4 and that was before the current green candle, so that's one little pullback avoided. I'm especially concerned about the big "belly" caused by the rapid move down, lots of open space between the EMAs. This shape often results in a big pullback or even a reversal. I don't want to get caught in a big pullback again, so I'm wondering about moving it down a few pips more to avoid a spike. Let it be triggered by a real breakout.
The daily chart is bearish, which gives me that advantage (in fact a W-formation is in process with the second high lower than the first one, which is even better).
Comments, josi, or anyone, actually - seeing things through other people's eyes is always useful,
- #256
- Jan 12, 2023 12:14am Jan 12, 2023 12:14am
I entered this trade two days ago. That feels like a long time for me! It shows how I entered just above a small consolidation zone and then price broke out. The candles in that consolidation zone were not consecutively bearish (as commented by josi yesterday). But it still happened that the trade was triggered and then pulled back a bit before breaking out. So the learning from josi is to be a bit more careful with the entry level, to avoid being triggered except by the breakout move. (if possible).
The trade is now at break-even and might soon move to the target.
The trade is now at break-even and might soon move to the target.
