DislikedWell, Powell did not do us the favor. Only bla bla bla... But EUR has not made a new high and looks stuck. That might turn into a correction... let's see. Of course CPI tomorrow...Ignored
- #165,124
- Jan 10, 2023 8:01am Jan 10, 2023 8:01am
REDA_EL_HARAOUI
ELITE MOROCCO SNIPER All Time Return:
27.5%
I closed one of my long at 1.0737, opened since 0.9816, netting a good 921 pips. Still, holding 7 long trades.
Now, this EURUSD might reach a point where it pauses. It might advance a bit, it might decline. However, shorting it is still not my cup of tea.
Obviously Powell could not just become hawkish out of nowhere in a conference that was not designed for monetary talks. That would make him sound very strange. It was a policy talk, but more of a talk, than actual policy implementation. Attention now turns to US CPI on Thursday. Fed's rate hike for 1 Feb '23 now priced in at 25 bps. ECB likely follow suit, with a max of 50 bps, could be 25 bps. We'll see.
Price wise, it could turn around at my 61% Fib. It might pop a bit higher into FOMC, but Fed hawkishness during their own presser should be enough to keep dollar strengthen for a while, before weakening again into second half of Q1 '23. Market concensus is Fed needs to stop hiking. Fed's view is, as long as inflation is not returning to 2%, they'll continue hiking rates. In coming months, we'll likely see a showdown on both sides. Eventually, price will still need to test the 50-SMA on daily, now at 1.043. So, if CPI weakens, there's chance a dip might visit this level. If both ECB and Fed "synchronised" their hikes at 25 bps, then we can talk about a price consolidation on EURUSD, likely between 1.03 to 1.07.
Long term, completing this retracement on my chart would take EURUSD to 1.15. We'll leave this talk weeks and months down the road. Not now.
Now, this EURUSD might reach a point where it pauses. It might advance a bit, it might decline. However, shorting it is still not my cup of tea.
Obviously Powell could not just become hawkish out of nowhere in a conference that was not designed for monetary talks. That would make him sound very strange. It was a policy talk, but more of a talk, than actual policy implementation. Attention now turns to US CPI on Thursday. Fed's rate hike for 1 Feb '23 now priced in at 25 bps. ECB likely follow suit, with a max of 50 bps, could be 25 bps. We'll see.
Price wise, it could turn around at my 61% Fib. It might pop a bit higher into FOMC, but Fed hawkishness during their own presser should be enough to keep dollar strengthen for a while, before weakening again into second half of Q1 '23. Market concensus is Fed needs to stop hiking. Fed's view is, as long as inflation is not returning to 2%, they'll continue hiking rates. In coming months, we'll likely see a showdown on both sides. Eventually, price will still need to test the 50-SMA on daily, now at 1.043. So, if CPI weakens, there's chance a dip might visit this level. If both ECB and Fed "synchronised" their hikes at 25 bps, then we can talk about a price consolidation on EURUSD, likely between 1.03 to 1.07.
Long term, completing this retracement on my chart would take EURUSD to 1.15. We'll leave this talk weeks and months down the road. Not now.
I closed one of my long at 1.0737, opened since 0.9816, netting a good 921 pips. Still, holding 7 long trades. Now, this EURUSD might reach a point where it pauses. It might advance a bit, it might decline. However, shorting it is still not my cup of tea. Obviously Powell could not just become hawkish out of nowhere in a conference that was not designed for monetary talks. That would make him sound very strange. It was a policy talk, but more of a talk, than actual policy implementation. Attention now turns to US CPI on Thursday. Fed's rate hike...
Live long and prosper with green pips! 
- #165,130
- Jan 10, 2023 8:53am Jan 10, 2023 8:53am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,148 Posts
Hello Ata, Js3mwtRc, and Mtako, Haven't heard from you leaders much today about the market conditions - Is there a leaders international forum going on somewhere, perhaps in a retreat style?
Best wishes
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #165,131
- Jan 10, 2023 9:16am Jan 10, 2023 9:16am
- Joined Jun 2016 | Status: Sharing EUR/USD Ideas and Insights | 15,452 Posts
Hello Ata, Js3mwtRc, and Mtako, Haven't heard from you leaders much today about the market conditions - Is there a leaders international forum going on somewhere, perhaps in a retreat style?
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
- #165,132
- Jan 10, 2023 9:45pm Jan 10, 2023 9:45pm
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Liverpool's KOP | 8,026 Posts | Online Now
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
- #165,133
- Jan 10, 2023 10:19pm Jan 10, 2023 10:19pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Trader | 3,149 Posts
Holy Betting Grail strategy
- #165,134
- Jan 10, 2023 10:27pm Jan 10, 2023 10:27pm
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Liverpool's KOP | 8,026 Posts | Online Now
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
- #165,136
- Jan 10, 2023 10:33pm Jan 10, 2023 10:33pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Trader | 3,149 Posts
Holy Betting Grail strategy
- #165,137
- Jan 10, 2023 10:36pm Jan 10, 2023 10:36pm
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Liverpool's KOP | 8,026 Posts | Online Now
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
- #165,138
- Jan 10, 2023 11:08pm Jan 10, 2023 11:08pm
- Joined Jun 2016 | Status: Sharing EUR/USD Ideas and Insights | 15,452 Posts
Not much changed from yesterday 1.0712 - 1.0762 is the range but today we may see an extension at least for some pips. The volatility I expect is 68 pips.
I also wait for higher prices from here but and also in a deep EU should be bought from the bulls until the tomorrows US CPI clears the case for more uptrend towards 1.0850 or for a correction down to 1.0550 first for a test.
1.0737 is the decision point for today (dec high) and maybe and for the next days towards down to 1.0712/1.0684 or up to 1.0762/88. The trend is up.
1H chart
I also wait for higher prices from here but and also in a deep EU should be bought from the bulls until the tomorrows US CPI clears the case for more uptrend towards 1.0850 or for a correction down to 1.0550 first for a test.
Not much changed from yesterday 1.0712 - 1.0762 is the range but today we may see an extension at least for some pips. The volatility I expect is 68 pips.
1H chart
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
- #165,139
- Jan 10, 2023 11:37pm Jan 10, 2023 11:37pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Jul 2013 | 7,890 Posts
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
- #165,140
- Jan 10, 2023 11:56pm Jan 10, 2023 11:56pm
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Liverpool's KOP | 8,026 Posts | Online Now
Not much changed from yesterday 1.0712 - 1.0762 is the range but today we may see an extension at least for some pips. The volatility I expect is 68 pips.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.