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MA Crossover System that works for me

  • #221
  • Jan 4, 2023 6:08am Jan 4, 2023 6:08am
Quoting neilpryde
First trade of the YEAR ! AUD/CAD long. 100 pips gain ! {image}
Congrats neilpryde!!!


Long AudUsd trade still running.
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  • #222
  • Jan 4, 2023 6:12am Jan 4, 2023 6:12am
Quoting gf233
{quote} What do you think about EURUSD? the downward crossing on H4 seems almost ready...
I would leave EurUSD alone till after NFP on Friday.

This is my observation for now.

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  • #223
  • Edited 10:53am Jan 4, 2023 9:22am | Edited 10:53am
Quoting neilpryde
First trade of the YEAR ! AUD/CAD long. 100 pips gain ! {image}
Nice one, neilpryde. Could you perhaps talk us through how you identified this trade, how you chose your entry level and where you set your TP? Were there any concerns you might have had?

Thanks
Alistair
  • #224
  • Jan 4, 2023 12:40pm Jan 4, 2023 12:40pm
I missed the obvious entry possibilities soon after the EMA crossover - there was a decent pinbar and then a two-bar pullback as marked on the H4 chart. Both would have worked. So now I'll have to wait for price to pull back to the EMAs.

The weekly shows that price has visited a key level and is now dropping away from there. The daily shows the beginnings of a possible reversal, but for now a decisive break below the 21 EMA, which will do.

I will use a sell stop order during the expected pullback so that if price does continue its bullish direction my order will hopefully not be filled.
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  • #225
  • Jan 4, 2023 2:13pm Jan 4, 2023 2:13pm
Quoting AlistairC
{quote} Nice one, neilpryde. Could you perhaps talk us through how you identified this trade, how you chose your entry level and where you set your TP? Were there any concerns you might have had? Thanks Alistair
Hi Alistair ! The daily chart got my attention, see below. There is strong up trend ! Fundamentaly the oil was weekening, which means the CAD also geting undervalued.
The 4h CHART was not perfect et all. The arrow showes my signal bar. A big pull back green candel, sign of the hunger of the bulls. Buy stop above that green candel, which was trigered. Than your rules, 100 Tp, 100 SL. Trade was managed with THV Cave manager ( 50 pipp BE). Lucklily it was a succes ! Anyway it was not a perfect trade by your rules.
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  • #226
  • Jan 5, 2023 1:01am Jan 5, 2023 1:01am
On this GBPAUD trade the daily is bearish and the H4 has pulled back nicely to the EMAs, so I am now expecting it to fall in line with the daily. I entered at the base of the pinbar, which lies right across both EMAs, which is a good sign.

Concerns: There are some support levels in that vicinity, but the main one is where my TP is. The H4 chart shows an "older" trend - it is currently beginning its 5th leg down. That alone almost made me walk away from this.

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  • #227
  • Jan 5, 2023 2:00am Jan 5, 2023 2:00am
Hi Alistair, watching this one now to see how it works out after following your thread and applying the stratergy to various other pairs I'm watching.
Thanks
Alan
  • #228
  • Jan 5, 2023 2:49am Jan 5, 2023 2:49am
Quoting alanh59
Hi Alistair, watching this one now to see how it works out after following your thread and applying the strategy to various other pairs I'm watching. Thanks Alan
You're making me nervous!
  • #229
  • Jan 5, 2023 3:04am Jan 5, 2023 3:04am
Hi Alistair,

I have every confidence in your stratergy and it is going down now as you predicted.

Thanks
Alan
  • #230
  • Jan 5, 2023 3:12am Jan 5, 2023 3:12am
Quoting AlistairC
{quote} You're making me nervous!
I was in it this morning, too, and was surprised that hardly anything happened.
You have to zoom out a lot to make it clear - it may come around eventually but I quit with just a few pips +
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  • #231
  • Jan 5, 2023 5:57am Jan 5, 2023 5:57am
Quoting AlistairC
On this GBPAUD trade the daily is bearish and the H4 has pulled back nicely to the EMAs, so I am now expecting it to fall in line with the daily. I entered at the base of the pinbar, which lies right across both EMAs, which is a good sign. Concerns: There are some support levels in that vicinity, but the main one is where my TP is. The H4 chart shows an "older" trend - it is currently beginning its 5th leg down. That alone almost made me walk away from this. {image}{image}
Going better than expected and now moved to B/E. The TP is 120 pips, so I am 50% of the way there.
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  • #232
  • Jan 5, 2023 7:05am Jan 5, 2023 7:05am
Quoting AlistairC
I missed the obvious entry possibilities soon after the EMA crossover - there was a decent pinbar and then a two-bar pullback as marked on the H4 chart. Both would have worked. So now I'll have to wait for price to pull back to the EMAs. The weekly shows that price has visited a key level and is now dropping away from there. The daily shows the beginnings of a possible reversal, but for now a decisive break below the 21 EMA, which will do. I will use a sell stop order during the expected pullback so that if price does continue its bullish direction...
This pair did pull back and I entered during the initial down-move. It felt a bit risky, but as price action was all in favour I decided to go for it in order to secure a better price. There was no obvious (or affordable) swing high where I could place the SL, so I placed it inside the "traffic" to the left and above the 21 EMA, hoping that all of that would be sufficiently above resistance.

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  • #233
  • Jan 5, 2023 7:14am Jan 5, 2023 7:14am
Short GbpCad

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  • #234
  • Jan 5, 2023 7:40am Jan 5, 2023 7:40am
Quoting yanah12
Short GbpCad {image}
+100pips, trailing SL.
  • #235
  • Jan 5, 2023 7:50am Jan 5, 2023 7:50am
Quoting AlistairC
{quote} Going better than expected and now moved to B/E. The TP is 120 pips, so I am 50% of the way there. {image}
The very good ADP non-farm employment result coming out of the US just over 30 minutes ago caused this trade to spike down to within 8 pips of the TP, but not enough to hit it . Price has now moved 60 pips away. What should I do? Hope the overall trend takes over or close now while I still have some money to bank? I'm not sure what is the best way to go.
  • #236
  • Jan 5, 2023 7:56am Jan 5, 2023 7:56am
Quoting yanah12
{quote} +100pips, trailing SL.
Yanah12, what trailing stop method are you using?
  • #237
  • Jan 5, 2023 8:02am Jan 5, 2023 8:02am
Quoting AlistairC
{quote} The very good ADP non-farm employment result coming out of the US just over 30 minutes ago caused this trade to spike down to within 8 pips of the TP, but not enough to hit it . Price has now moved 60 pips away. What should I do? Hope the overall trend takes over or close now while I still have some money to bank? I'm not sure what is the best way to go.
I take it you have precise rules for this particular incident as it will happen (again and again).
I only want to make you aware of the real chance that a W-formation could be forming (but probably you can see that anyway).
  • #238
  • Jan 5, 2023 8:11am Jan 5, 2023 8:11am
Quoting josi
{quote} I take it you have precise rules for this particular incident as it will happen (again and again). I only want to make you aware of the real chance that a W-formation could be forming (but probably you can see that anyway).
No rules at all!

But I follow a general principle, that if the overall chart structure and price action remain in my favour, then I should trust the system, and that is currently what I am doing. I am also at break-even, which makes a big difference as the most I can lose is nothing. It also really helps that my overall trading has been giving good results, so the pressure to squeeze as much out of this trade as possible is much less intense.

But if things are looking chaotic I usually just close the trade and walk away. How do you respond to cases like this?
  • #239
  • Jan 5, 2023 8:27am Jan 5, 2023 8:27am
Quoting AlistairC
{quote}How do you respond to cases like this?
I don't use trailing stops.
For better or worse I follow the rule: If in doubt, get out (immediately).
  • #240
  • Jan 5, 2023 9:28am Jan 5, 2023 9:28am
Quoting AlistairC
{quote} Yanah12, what trailing stop method are you using?

Hi AlistairC, I don't utilize any specific method. I just simply use a fixed price trailing stop.
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