Do you provide TV indicators?
- #1,062
- Dec 18, 2022 6:42am Dec 18, 2022 6:42am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
The situation repeats again.
As in quoted post #1056, things have turned south again on Friday. This time is even a little bit worse but the trade is still in profit and I'm following the system to the letter so all is fine.
Maybe that peak to 1.073 was a climax and a failed tentative to reach my 1.08 target and we are turning south right now but I can only take profits when some target is reached or when it changes direction, not just because I have "good" profits.
Monday will again decide where it is going...
Trade well!
Positioning for the next up move ? Very good data from US was still not enough to break the main trend. This could mean consolidation. Large institutions eating all the sell orders they can and positioning before next week where Inflation data and FED rates decision could be the catalyst for a good move to the North or to the South! Current momentum and direction are still to the upside but the momentum has been well degraded during that Friday move in the direction of the trend line. I need some movement to the upside in the next hours to stay...
As in quoted post #1056, things have turned south again on Friday. This time is even a little bit worse but the trade is still in profit and I'm following the system to the letter so all is fine.
Maybe that peak to 1.073 was a climax and a failed tentative to reach my 1.08 target and we are turning south right now but I can only take profits when some target is reached or when it changes direction, not just because I have "good" profits.
Monday will again decide where it is going...
Trade well!
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
- #1,064
- Dec 19, 2022 6:25am Dec 19, 2022 6:25am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
- #1,065
- Dec 20, 2022 3:12pm Dec 20, 2022 3:12pm
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
Maybe breaking new bullish flag...
An overview showing some technical formations that made the recent up mode.
Bullish flag A was made of 108 bars, current (maybe bullish) flag has actually around 100 bars, so we should soon see the end of this consolidation period.
An overview showing some technical formations that made the recent up mode.
Bullish flag A was made of 108 bars, current (maybe bullish) flag has actually around 100 bars, so we should soon see the end of this consolidation period.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
- #1,066
- Dec 21, 2022 12:05pm Dec 21, 2022 12:05pm
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
The consolidation continues...
The bullish flag A was broke to the upside maybe with a false break B which is now consolidating into another flag C inside a symmetrical triangle D !
What a joke, consolidation into consolidation...
Hopefully we should exit that triangle tomorrow...
The bullish flag A was broke to the upside maybe with a false break B which is now consolidating into another flag C inside a symmetrical triangle D !
What a joke, consolidation into consolidation...
Hopefully we should exit that triangle tomorrow...
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
- #1,067
- Dec 22, 2022 2:54pm Dec 22, 2022 2:54pm
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
Fresh volatility coming in.
Last symmetrical triangle was broken to the upside but price went south below it cancelling that move.
Previous tops acting as support to recent low which was still not violated so it's still trending up and now forming a broadening formation or megaphone, indicating that things are becoming more volatile.
Momentum dried severely but if that megaphone brings a new swing to the upside, to around 1.0660, that would bring some fresh positive momentum that I need to keep my trades running.
Last symmetrical triangle was broken to the upside but price went south below it cancelling that move.
Previous tops acting as support to recent low which was still not violated so it's still trending up and now forming a broadening formation or megaphone, indicating that things are becoming more volatile.
Momentum dried severely but if that megaphone brings a new swing to the upside, to around 1.0660, that would bring some fresh positive momentum that I need to keep my trades running.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
- #1,068
- Dec 26, 2022 11:43pm Dec 26, 2022 11:43pm
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
We are almost out of consolidation.
It looks like this last trading week of the year will pull the EU out of its consolidation phase and maybe to the up side.
Some flags and triangle were cleared on the H1 chart, another H4 violet triangle was also cleared. The last blue megaphone top that needs to be cleared will coincide with the recent 688, 699 closes and with it, it will form a daily double top. That previous daily top is at 682, if it handles to be above on the daily close, I think that the road should be clear to the 800s otherwise we could be at an intermediary top and see some significant down move.
On the momentum side, even if it was not spectacular, and this was due to the lack of volume, there was a nice continuous price push to the upside since yesterday that is still in place at the moment of writing so for me we are clearly going up so I'm keeping my longs in place.
It looks like this last trading week of the year will pull the EU out of its consolidation phase and maybe to the up side.
Some flags and triangle were cleared on the H1 chart, another H4 violet triangle was also cleared. The last blue megaphone top that needs to be cleared will coincide with the recent 688, 699 closes and with it, it will form a daily double top. That previous daily top is at 682, if it handles to be above on the daily close, I think that the road should be clear to the 800s otherwise we could be at an intermediary top and see some significant down move.
On the momentum side, even if it was not spectacular, and this was due to the lack of volume, there was a nice continuous price push to the upside since yesterday that is still in place at the moment of writing so for me we are clearly going up so I'm keeping my longs in place.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
- #1,069
- Edited 1:07pm Dec 28, 2022 12:54pm | Edited 1:07pm
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
False break suggests south turn.
After a break to the upside of the top descending triangle, we are now back into it suggesting a false break with a potential start of a new down trend.
The momentum is degraded a bit but it's still too early to get out, I will wait to see if Asian and tomorrow's session both give confirmation of this recent move.
I'm moving my sentiment from Bullish Strong to Bullish Mild.
After a break to the upside of the top descending triangle, we are now back into it suggesting a false break with a potential start of a new down trend.
The momentum is degraded a bit but it's still too early to get out, I will wait to see if Asian and tomorrow's session both give confirmation of this recent move.
I'm moving my sentiment from Bullish Strong to Bullish Mild.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
- #1,071
- Dec 28, 2022 11:38pm Dec 28, 2022 11:38pm
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
I like the mystic chart look - woot!
it brings some life to the graphic, they call it "Tokyo Night" in TVThe daily MACD supports your post... May have another up swing though...
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
- #1,072
- Dec 29, 2022 1:52pm Dec 29, 2022 1:52pm
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
False break turned out to finally be valid (at least for now ;-))
After a short incursion inside, it finally bounced up nicely forming a fresh recent high and a double top with the top of the triangle.
It if follows the theory, it should reach the 730 level (blue line), then we are not far from my final 800 target, if not this year, maybe next, if, if, if...
The momentum is back with me but my sentiment remains bullish mild as we are low on volume in the last days of the year and this could turn very quickly next week.
Eight minutes before entering the last trading day of the year.
After a short incursion inside, it finally bounced up nicely forming a fresh recent high and a double top with the top of the triangle.
It if follows the theory, it should reach the 730 level (blue line), then we are not far from my final 800 target, if not this year, maybe next, if, if, if...
The momentum is back with me but my sentiment remains bullish mild as we are low on volume in the last days of the year and this could turn very quickly next week.
Eight minutes before entering the last trading day of the year.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
- #1,073
- Edited 2:05pm Dec 30, 2022 1:53pm | Edited 2:05pm
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
All is in place for a good start in 2023 !
That consolidation triangle is definitely cleared and the double top as well as we had a bar closing higher.
It's only 100 pips away now from my target and it has the potential of going even higher (1.0850), we will see that I guess next week.
My plan is to wait for it to touch the 800s to close my largest trade because taking profits is part of the game. I will let the other trade run to see where it goes.
Given the recent price action my sentiment is back to Strongly Bullish until it reaches my target level where I will turn back to mildly.
Regarding my trading abilities, I have been doing well since November and this running trade is teaching me to be patient which is a very important aspect of the game. Of course two months are only a good start which already translates in good numbers, but more important, I'm learning to have trust in what I do and above all leaving the emotions of fear and greed aside and focusing on just trading well, theese recent results are just beyond all my expectations so I'm committed to continue in this way during 2023, executing to the letter not touching anything.
The EU chart below shows clear pa now, I'ts always clearer at the end but I must admit that I had trouble reading it at some points.
If you look at my previous posts, you will see that I talk about flags, expanding triangles, etc..., not really a clear view of what was happening and I was aware of it so I went looking for other charts and naturally I found the US Dollar index (DXY)
That's when suddenly all became clear ! From December 22 it was clear that we were in a nice symmetrical triangle and by chance I published a post #1067 on that same December 22 titled "Fresh Volatility coming in." (it's on this page some posts above) published at the end of the day.
On that post, it's very clear that I didn't know in which waters I was navigating. If I had had this DXY under my hand, I would have known that the consolidation would still last for a while. In this occurrence, the DXY chart was very clear while the EU chart more difficult to read.
So from now on I will keep an eye also on DXY only to confirm my EU sentiment and post its chart when needed.
EURUSD
DXY on December 22 23h00
DXY Right Now
That consolidation triangle is definitely cleared and the double top as well as we had a bar closing higher.
It's only 100 pips away now from my target and it has the potential of going even higher (1.0850), we will see that I guess next week.
My plan is to wait for it to touch the 800s to close my largest trade because taking profits is part of the game. I will let the other trade run to see where it goes.
Given the recent price action my sentiment is back to Strongly Bullish until it reaches my target level where I will turn back to mildly.
Regarding my trading abilities, I have been doing well since November and this running trade is teaching me to be patient which is a very important aspect of the game. Of course two months are only a good start which already translates in good numbers, but more important, I'm learning to have trust in what I do and above all leaving the emotions of fear and greed aside and focusing on just trading well, theese recent results are just beyond all my expectations so I'm committed to continue in this way during 2023, executing to the letter not touching anything.
The EU chart below shows clear pa now, I'ts always clearer at the end but I must admit that I had trouble reading it at some points.
If you look at my previous posts, you will see that I talk about flags, expanding triangles, etc..., not really a clear view of what was happening and I was aware of it so I went looking for other charts and naturally I found the US Dollar index (DXY)
That's when suddenly all became clear ! From December 22 it was clear that we were in a nice symmetrical triangle and by chance I published a post #1067 on that same December 22 titled "Fresh Volatility coming in." (it's on this page some posts above) published at the end of the day.
On that post, it's very clear that I didn't know in which waters I was navigating. If I had had this DXY under my hand, I would have known that the consolidation would still last for a while. In this occurrence, the DXY chart was very clear while the EU chart more difficult to read.
So from now on I will keep an eye also on DXY only to confirm my EU sentiment and post its chart when needed.
EURUSD
DXY on December 22 23h00
DXY Right Now
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
- #1,074
- Jan 1, 2023 2:20pm Jan 1, 2023 2:20pm
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
Three years of some retrospective.
A new year begins, it's I think a good time to look back and see from were we come, but also were we are going...
After a chaotic start in 2020 due to COVID, EU tops at the beginning of 2021 an then starts a bear market that accelerates in 2022 to reach parity and below in September 2022.
From the second top in 2021, it was a perfect down trend as not a single Lower High was violated until in late 2022, there a couple of higher lows are showing that we just entered another market.
It's all in the chart.
Happy 2023 !
A new year begins, it's I think a good time to look back and see from were we come, but also were we are going...
After a chaotic start in 2020 due to COVID, EU tops at the beginning of 2021 an then starts a bear market that accelerates in 2022 to reach parity and below in September 2022.
From the second top in 2021, it was a perfect down trend as not a single Lower High was violated until in late 2022, there a couple of higher lows are showing that we just entered another market.
It's all in the chart.
Happy 2023 !
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
- #1,076
- Jan 3, 2023 1:22pm Jan 3, 2023 1:22pm
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
- #1,079
- Edited 11:33pm Jan 3, 2023 11:04pm | Edited 11:33pm
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
Congrats on reaching your goal!!!! Yep - It's time to break out in 2023...
I will try to break out in my way of trading we will see if the bottom line follows...
Keep it up BT! May I know how often will you monitor a trade after entering? thanks
It's a saying we use here to say "almost always", but it's more for fun and because I like it than a real need.When a sudden change appears like yesterday, then it becomes more necessary in the following let's say 24 hours to see if the pressure given by the sudden momentum remains there or not that's when I monitor it constantly, because I know that I will maybe have to act.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
- #1,080
- Jan 3, 2023 11:27pm Jan 3, 2023 11:27pm
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
Looking like a bear trap...
At the time of writing, end of Asian session, it looks like the move of yesterday was nothing more than a bear trap but it was enough to put me out of my trade.
The bearish pressure is gone now so I cannot enter short as I thought yesterday, the confirmation is not there.
If the trap is confirmed we should then see a new up leg and this time certainly reach my 1.08 target and that could be a new move to reach an even higher target but later.
There is also the possibility for this move to be a correction, in this case we should see a new down leg maybe violating a recent low which could lead to a larger down move but for now the up trend remains intact, only recent lows have been violated but not major lows so my bias is still Bullish.
At the time of writing, end of Asian session, it looks like the move of yesterday was nothing more than a bear trap but it was enough to put me out of my trade.
The bearish pressure is gone now so I cannot enter short as I thought yesterday, the confirmation is not there.
If the trap is confirmed we should then see a new up leg and this time certainly reach my 1.08 target and that could be a new move to reach an even higher target but later.
There is also the possibility for this move to be a correction, in this case we should see a new down leg maybe violating a recent low which could lead to a larger down move but for now the up trend remains intact, only recent lows have been violated but not major lows so my bias is still Bullish.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.