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Volman meets Burke or My journey with PA

  • #1,361
  • Dec 31, 2022 2:41pm Dec 31, 2022 2:41pm
Week of 7 Nov 2022

I will be using a thick line to show the general direction that the two MAs are pointing. Yes, I said pointing. You will see it. My primary focus for the MES is the US session. My focus has been mostly after the first hour.

Mon 7 Nov 2022

Take note of how price itself between the two MAs until it breaks out.

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Tue 8 Nov 2022

None of these areas of potential S/R are walls of granite. Let price show the way as always.

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Wed 9 Nov 2022

The MAs show clearly price is turning over and may likely head down. The S/R needs to be respected until broken. The entire method will aid in making determinations for trade direction.

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Thu 10 Nov 2022

Days when some data release scews everything need to be traded almost exclusively with conventional PA.

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Fri 11 Nov 2022

The Hulls usually recover from red data days fairly quickly. You can see the H1-ema as it finally catches up. The LT-Hull is performing well as resistance until about midway through the US session the price makes a clear break.

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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,362
  • Dec 31, 2022 2:48pm Dec 31, 2022 2:48pm
Another thing to pay attention to is how the first hour block of each session helps create the boundaries for the remaining sessions. Also note the flow from one session to the next.

I'm telling you this is a well choreographed dance.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,363
  • Dec 31, 2022 5:06pm Dec 31, 2022 5:06pm
Week of 14 Nov 2022

By now you should start seeing how the LT-Hull behaves as a proxy for price. It has a cyclic style of behavior which gives it value beyond a "regular" MA. Notice how at times there is more cleaner movement in the London session than the US session. Also how the London session sets boundaries for the US session at times.

Mon 14 Nov 2022

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Tue 15 Nov 2022

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Wed 16 Nov 2022

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Thu 17 Nov 2022

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Fri 18 Nov 2022

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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,364
  • Dec 31, 2022 8:33pm Dec 31, 2022 8:33pm
Week of 21 Nov 2022

Short week with US Thanksgiving and all. As you can see the pattern continues.

Mon 21 Nov 2022

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Tue 22 Nov 2022

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Wed 23 Nov 2022

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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,365
  • Dec 31, 2022 8:37pm Dec 31, 2022 8:37pm
There are some premises to this movement between price and the MAs which I will get to.

Only five weeks to go. Yes you will get it all. Only but a tiny fraction of the immersion I did to see how all this works together. Truly once you see it you can't unsee it. In this case that's a good thing.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,366
  • Dec 31, 2022 10:35pm Dec 31, 2022 10:35pm
Week of 28 Nov 2022

One thing this week makes apparent is the lag of MAs. Both Wednesday and Friday were examples of red data.

Mon 28 Nov 2022

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Tue 29 Nov 2022

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Wed 30 Nov 2022

I think Powell said the Fed would start to moderate or some clap trap. I think the equities market would rather watch Rome burn than have higher interest rates. Not condoning the current reasons used to raise rates. ***Just remember this inflation was not caused by consumer demand.

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Thu 1 Dec 2022

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Fri 2 Dec 2022

And we return back from the Hopium Express of the other day.

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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,367
  • Dec 31, 2022 11:13pm Dec 31, 2022 11:13pm
That was about a months worth of charts showing most of each day. You can clearly see the relationship between price and the two longer term MAs. A few things are how when one MA is above price and the other below. There were a number of hits off the MAs as they performed as dynamic S/R. There were many instances of price crossing the MA then making a significant move in that direction.

I think I will stop this exercise here.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,368
  • Dec 31, 2022 11:37pm Dec 31, 2022 11:37pm
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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,369
  • Jan 1, 2023 9:32am Jan 1, 2023 9:32am
Here is week of 7 Nov 2022 for the GBP_USD. I did not scribble on these. Just the charts with my stuff. Have a look see ...

Mon 7 Nov 2022

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Tue 8 Nov 2022

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Wed 9 Nov 2022

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Thu 10 Nov 2022

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Fri 11 Nov 2022

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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,370
  • Jan 1, 2023 9:45am Jan 1, 2023 9:45am
This exercise was two-fold. One was to show case the potential short term directional bias through the use of moving averages. I would say that this part was a success. The other was to help me. Since my trading focus is shorter term, I even have a vertical line that shows up at the time I need to be getting flat, it was to help remind me to view things in their proper order and to see the slightly bigger picture that will improve my outcomes. The success of this will be an ongoing evaluation.

Some things I have to consciously remind myself of.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,371
  • Jan 1, 2023 10:05am Jan 1, 2023 10:05am
If you want to know more about the Hull MA ...

https://school.stockcharts.com/doku....moving_average
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,372
  • Jan 1, 2023 10:31pm Jan 1, 2023 10:31pm
Continuing with the H1-ema and the LT-Hull.

The H1-ema is treated mostly as any ema. The LT-Hull is my "bias" MA. It is basically the direction that the LT-Hull points, which will become clear with the next batch of posts.

(This is the duh part.) There are three directions price can go. Up. Down. Sideways. It can also move in a combination of any of the three during any given period. But it's mostly the Up. Down. Sideways.

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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,373
  • Jan 1, 2023 10:33pm Jan 1, 2023 10:33pm
What I call Trough is also known as saucer. But I yam who I yam ...
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,374
  • Jan 3, 2023 11:01am Jan 3, 2023 11:01am
A good example of sideways price movement then slop from red data. Fri 23 Dec 2022

Box A

The previous day was down > 115 pts at one time then retraced 50% to close the US session. Price is moving sideways around PWL and just below the EMA. This allows the LT-H to catch up.

Box B

Everything squeezes together. Equilibrium. The market is balanced in this area. The nature of price does not like to remain in this state too long.

Box C

Red data and price is free to do its thing. One thing to note is how the PDO contained the upward movement and how, once everything shook out, the PDC became static support, as it was most of the night. Another thing to note is how price moves the MAs. This will help in reading the MAs - more to say on this.

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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,375
  • Jan 3, 2023 11:06am Jan 3, 2023 11:06am
A very important point to remember is that price movement is what gives us the moving averages and PA is still primary. The MAs provide a very useful framework which helps me to read that price action.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,376
  • Jan 3, 2023 12:48pm Jan 3, 2023 12:48pm
Quoting spzd
A very important point to remember is that price movement is what gives us the moving averages and PA is still primary. The MAs provide a very useful framework which helps me to read that price action.
Looking at box B in your last post # 1375 I see that the MA at the peak high must be the indicator MA in Color.. I use it too.
  • #1,377
  • Jan 3, 2023 12:51pm Jan 3, 2023 12:51pm
Quoting Lou
{quote} Looking at box B in your last post # 1375 I see that the MA at the peak high must be the indicator MA in Color.. I use it too.
My platform is mt5. May not be the same.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,378
  • Jan 3, 2023 12:58pm Jan 3, 2023 12:58pm
Has this happened to anyone using MT4 ?
Opened my charts this morning. All the work I had spent placing my H/L lines for M, W, D which I did after the close of each of the M, W and D had
reverted back to old settings. The M and W lines had gone back to November settings !
Don't know why. Wonder how to keep that from happening again.
  • #1,379
  • Jan 3, 2023 1:16pm Jan 3, 2023 1:16pm
Quoting Lou
Has this happened to anyone using MT4 ? Opened my charts this morning. All the work I had spent placing my H/L lines for M, W, D which I did after the close of each of the M, W and D had reverted back to old settings. The M and W lines had gone back to November settings ! Don't know why. Wonder how to keep that from happening again.
If they are placed manually, you need to save a template in order to keep the same settings. May be other ways?
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,380
  • Edited 5:55pm Jan 3, 2023 5:05pm | Edited 5:55pm
Quoting Lou
Has this happened to anyone using MT4 ? Opened my charts this morning. All the work I had spent placing my H/L lines for M, W, D which I did after the close of each of the M, W and D had reverted back to old settings. The M and W lines had gone back to November settings ! Don't know why. Wonder how to keep that from happening again.

Hi Lou,
This indi below 'sometimes' misses the spike low/hi by just one pip edit: ooooops by one "point" NOT pip lol sorry (I have noticed),
but it is close enough for what I use the indi for on one particular template (ie visuals, not any subsequent math).
It might do the job automtically for you, give it a test drive should you wish.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Daily-Weekly-Monthly Hi-Low.mq4   42 KB | 267 downloads
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