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Volman meets Burke or My journey with PA

  • #1,341
  • Dec 28, 2022 10:06am Dec 28, 2022 10:06am
Nasdaq Tuesday 12.27.2022 and the end of last week.

One last time about the MA method. The three Hulls I use are from a prior iteration of my version of the MA method I was taught (I will not mention that method here as I do not think in its current form it is viable. jmo) scaling it down to smaller time frames. None of those attempts really worked and the reason is I did not give enough heed to PA. Then I added this SB type framework and when I decided to give the Hulls another shot the whole thing fell into place.

I use the same three period Hulls no matter the time frame. I have found that the sensitivity of the Hulls makes this possible. The periods are 20, 60, and 240. Yes, this is the progression from a 5-minute base. When I put this on the currencies and change to 15-minute this same progression seems to work best. I have taken to calling them the ST-Hull (short term) for the 20, MT-Hull (medium term) for the 60, and LT-Hull (long term) for the 240.
There are a few more premises that deal with MAs and they will be covered in a separate post.


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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,342
  • Dec 28, 2022 11:44am Dec 28, 2022 11:44am
Moving averages are a proxy for price. It allows you to see price movement (based on the MA formula) through the MA. The Hulls provide an extra bonus of being good dynamic S/R. Another thing that is of importance is the direction of the Hull. Up, down, sideways. When the MA is moving at an angle it will go right through price. When reding the Hulls start with the LT-Hull. This gives the general big picture movement. In the chart above price oscillated around the LT-Hull when the LT-Hull was moving flat. The it was a directional indicator once price breaks away. The MT-Hull works in a similar manner only on a much smaller scale. Lastly the ST-Hull is the main entry point.

Crosses are important, but usually come after entry. If before entry it just gives more confidence to the entry. The Hulls try to set up like other MAs in that they will stack when price goes into impulse movement. Because the Hulls are more sensitive these "normal" MA moments are fewer.

Another thing to take notice of are the FHB (first hour boxes). I look to trade any session based off the FHB. I usually do not entry during this time, but will if a good entry is there (I will go into entries in much detail as I trade more).
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,343
  • Edited 3:07pm Dec 28, 2022 2:54pm | Edited 3:07pm
Looking at the MNQ during the US session.

Point A and B are good examples of equilibrium points - EP. That is where price and some other point of interest that is the same (or close) value of price. Point A is the ST-H and MT-H coming together at price. A bar open near the MT-H is a good spot for a long. Point B is the ST-H and LT-H coming together at PWL (previous week low). This is clearly a A+++ entry. The only restriction, as you see, is that the MT-H is below in a support position.

Point C has two examples of usnig the Hull, MT-H here, as S/R for entries. Both points 1 and 2 were either at/inside the MT-H as in 1 or the next open after a failed break as in 2.

If managed right these entries would have resulted in about 220 points (one contract = $400+). Not too bad for a few hours work.


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edit: The line at entry point A should be ignored. It is nothing more than my bid line.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,344
  • Edited 3:31pm Dec 28, 2022 3:19pm | Edited 3:31pm
Here are those last 4 entries in context with the entire US session.

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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,345
  • Dec 28, 2022 3:28pm Dec 28, 2022 3:28pm
I see all kinds of economic gloom and doom videos popping up lately. After 5 months of immersion and piecing together this method, I say bring it on. This method is ready to help me take advantage of it all.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,346
  • Dec 28, 2022 7:48pm Dec 28, 2022 7:48pm
I know this is a tight range. It does show how price moves when either the MT-H or LT-H go through it. It definitely scews things. It is wise to wait for a more defined entry.

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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,347
  • Dec 28, 2022 7:53pm Dec 28, 2022 7:53pm
Being aware that I do it. I at times will describe the MA as a completely independent entity from price. Knowing all along that an MA is nothing more than a derivative of price.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,348
  • Dec 28, 2022 8:48pm Dec 28, 2022 8:48pm
One thing to keep in mind - this is the end of the year and most big entities are mostly done for the year. Do not expect any overly large moves unless they have been approved in advance.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,349
  • Dec 29, 2022 1:52pm Dec 29, 2022 1:52pm
If you traded the indices today was a beautiful day. Not huge moves, but they were clearly there and the LT-Hull was in a huge trough.

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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,350
  • Dec 29, 2022 1:53pm Dec 29, 2022 1:53pm
As you can see, other than the price levels themselves these two markets are nearly identical.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,351
  • Dec 31, 2022 8:44am Dec 31, 2022 8:44am
If I disappear for awhile it usually means I am doing some research. The Hull MAs I added are part of a different system (too many indis). I have not worked with this for some time and was re-examining some things. Will be posting some clearer stuff. I know what I have posted is likely a bit convoluted. Will hopefully clear this up for anyone who is interested.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,352
  • Dec 31, 2022 9:21am Dec 31, 2022 9:21am
The platform I am using to trade futures is set to GMT. Going through past data - before daylight saving time - I noticed some of the session boxes were off. I really do not like DST. I think all borkers should set their time to New York or GMT +2. At least then the close is at 1700 EST. I also have charts from a GMT+2 borker and it does not seem to have this issue.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,353
  • Dec 31, 2022 9:28am Dec 31, 2022 9:28am
Since I don't do the New Years celebration BS anymore, haven't for some time, I will be posting some while I prepare for my new job.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,354
  • Dec 31, 2022 9:54am Dec 31, 2022 9:54am
Quoting spzd
Since I don't do the New Years celebration BS anymore, haven't for some time, I will be posting some while I prepare for my new job.
What's your new job ?
We are having brunch on New Year's day with friends. Used to be NY Eve.
  • #1,355
  • Dec 31, 2022 10:20am Dec 31, 2022 10:20am
Quoting Lou
{quote} What's your new job ? We are having brunch on New Year's day with friends. Used to be NY Eve.
My new job will be trading.

I stopped driving OTR at the end of July 2022. Spent 5 months learning the basics (and then some) of price action and market structure, with some deep dives into all of it. In those 5 months I put in more hours than any other job except when I was in the military. I had not traded or really looked at charts for about 3 years. Immersion. In that time I "created" this system/method that works within the framework that is basically laid out from Burke, and many others I am sure, with sessions periods etc. Then refined. MAs added from some previous work. Tweak here. Tweak there.

Come the new year I will be trading my method, mainly on the MES.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,356
  • Dec 31, 2022 11:42am Dec 31, 2022 11:42am
Quoting spzd
The platform I am using to trade futures is set to GMT. Going through past data - before daylight saving time - I noticed some of the session boxes were off. I really do not like DST. I think all brokers should set their time to New York or GMT +2. At least then the close is at 1700 EST. I also have charts from a GMT+2 broker and it does not seem to have this issue.
I have thought a lot about MT4 "time" issues and what I've clarified over the years are these points:

 

  1. Personally, I avoid any reference to "GMT" because by supposed definition it never changes per any ST/DST schedule, but many people confuse it with London/U.K. time, which does in fact change for DST. I prefer "UTC", which is unambiguous and absolutely never changes per any DST schedule.
  2. One must manually determine what schedule does the broker observe for ST/DST changes. There is nothing that makes this easy to do, but it involves a detailed analysis of the bar times of the Friday Close, and Sunday(Monday) Open on the weekends that various countries change their ST/DST. One must also count the number of H1 bars-per-week. Usually it's 120, but during ST/DST changes, sometimes you see 119 or 121, which makes it difficult to code for.
  3. Another common problem is that when you install a new MT4 and try to look backwards in time to get the H1 bar times, most brokers limit how many H1 bars you can load! Therefore, you might not be able to observe the close/open bars times for the previous March/April and September/October/November ST/DST dates that occur for various countries around the world. Getting this data is essential for determining what DST schedule the broker uses.
  4. I also observe some broker feeds have stupidly mixed up different DST schedules in their data feeds. For example, Forex.com (= GAIN Capital) used to be a "UTC" feed, but on 2020-Jun-07, they changed to a feed that now follows the USA schedule, with an offset that matches what I call the feed as "NY+7".
  5. Obviously, the USA follows a different DST schedule from Europe, vs. Japan (no DST) vs. Australia vs. New Zealand vs. ...

    Congress is making noise about going to DST year-round, though I doubt they actually will. (ST year-round would be better, IMO, but I don't have any problem making the ST/DST adjustment twice-a-year, but others do).

    Besides the USA, many countries have changed their ST/DST schedules over the years. Coding session indicators and other time tools for such changes is not easy.
  6. These days, most brokers follow the ST/DST schedule changes that track the USA. The most common (and useful IMO) data feed is "NY+7". This is the only proper feed that produces 5 Daily-bars-per-week, where each day is 24 complete hours, and 120 bars-per-week.

    This feed is what some people call "GMT+2", but that label is misleading because it doesn't capture the true DST schedule. "NY+7" is correct.
  7. Besides "NY+7", the other two most useful data feeds IMO would be "UTC" and "NY" (NY+0). These later two will have 6-Daily-bars-per-week, and the Sunday & Friday Daily bars will have less than 24 hours each.
  8. Some MT4 feeds get really crazy with H4 chart times. Rather than have an opening bar with, say, 2 hours, they play games and start the week with 2 3-hour bars (that they call "H4" bars!) and after that it settles down for the week; then it sometimes gets crazy for the Friday close bars also. These tricks play havoc with indicators that expect all H4 bars to start with exactly one of: 0:00/4:00/8:00/12:00/16:00/20:00
  9. IMO, some MT4 brokers screw up Weekly bars by showing a Sunday-to-Sunday schedule, where the weekly close includes the first few hours of Sunday trading, and then you have the start of the week just after that. The only proper way to show weekly bars, IMO, is to start from the first trading bar on Sunday/Monday, and close it on the last Friday bar. One should see a lot of price gaps as the next weekly bar resumes trading after the weekend.
  10. Note that a "NY+7" feed may cut off 1-3 hours of trading that might occur early on Monday in New Zealand and Australia if they start trading before the rest of the world, but there is very low liquidity until NY Sunday ~6pm. (It's been many years since I've seen a broker feed that showed bars during these early weekly hours. I assume there may still be some brokers in Aus/NZ that do this, but I don't know of any now).
  11. When I'm working on "time" issues, my favorite world time zone map I reference is here.

  • #1,357
  • Dec 31, 2022 12:44pm Dec 31, 2022 12:44pm
I'm in front of the telly dispensing champagne at regular intervals. My goal is to remain awake long enough to see London firework display
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #1,358
  • Dec 31, 2022 1:27pm Dec 31, 2022 1:27pm
Quoting pips4life
{quote} I have thought a lot about MT4 "time" issues and what I've clarified over the years are these points: Personally, I avoid any reference to "GMT" because by supposed definition it never changes per any ST/DST schedule, but many people confuse it with London/U.K. time, which does in fact change for DST. I prefer "UTC", which is unambiguous and absolutely never changes per any DST schedule. One must manually determine what schedule does the broker observe for ST/DST changes. There is nothing that makes this easy to do, but it involves a detailed...
I agree with every point you make.

I use GMT as more people relate to that over UTC. UTC is the correct time reference. I am using mt5 for convinience not to have to find or worse write the code for another platform. Not having any need for level 2 data of any type or tick or range bars, I opt for what I am comfortable with. So, I complain and deal with it.

Having been away from trading and the time issues I was somewhat taken back when going from DST to ST this year. I lost a day because of that. Then going back yesterday doing some research and I ran into the issue of everything before the DST/ST point was off an hour. My conclusion was it was my time - Central time US -that caused this discrepancy as I realized on 7 Nov when it first occurred.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,359
  • Dec 31, 2022 1:43pm Dec 31, 2022 1:43pm
I am going to be making a set of posts that may bore some. Some may find it interesting. There will not be a lot of comment other than to keep everything in context. The first group will be the MES. I may do a group for the GBP_USD to show this does work on currencies (since this is FF).

The main focus of this first group of posts is to focus on the two longer term MAs. These are my equivalent of the H1 25 period ema. This MA is set up to be a dynamic MA using just the M5 data. The other MA is the LT-Hull. This is a 240 period Hull. The purpose of this exercise is to show how these two MAs can be used to get a good idea of the day's bias during the US session.

The black horizontal line on each chart is the PDC - Previous Day Close. I think when dealing with equity indices, the daily close is as important as the daily open. The significance of the daily close will be seen.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,360
  • Dec 31, 2022 1:47pm Dec 31, 2022 1:47pm
Quoting turnip15
I'm in front of the telly dispensing champagne at regular intervals. My goal is to remain awake long enough to see London firework display {image}
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It never gets easier, you just get better
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