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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

  • #15,981
  • Dec 29, 2022 1:39pm Dec 29, 2022 1:39pm
M1, M5 & M15 EURO

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It had to happen - horrible, erratic and irrational PA today.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,982
  • Dec 30, 2022 5:24am Dec 30, 2022 5:24am
Good morning
I hope everyone had wonderful time on the holidays so far.

I am looking at how the DOW performed recently and what to expect starting next week (next year). Currently sitting at a big weekly range with lots of support and resistance above. Overall it still looks bullish to me but will have to see what the new year will bring. Hopefully some conflict resolutions across the globe (unlikely) and watching as the action unfolds
Monthly
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Weekly
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Daily
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  • #15,983
  • Dec 30, 2022 1:09pm Dec 30, 2022 1:09pm
M1 & M5 EURO

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Slow orderly PA today.

Happy and Profitable New Year to all
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,984
  • Edited 1:40pm Dec 30, 2022 1:25pm | Edited 1:40pm
Just under 2hrs left on this year's last NYSE session.
I am sure there were many morning stars, evening stars, meaningful shadows and Pinocchio bars that were observed, traded or missed over the span of this year.
My best wishes for the coming New Year to traders reading this post is that the experiences of delight, pain, concentration and focus will bring forth many benefits to you.
Happy and prosperous New Year!
2be
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #15,985
  • Dec 31, 2022 7:20am Dec 31, 2022 7:20am
Bummer! The Big Boss who is fully vaccinated and boosted got Covid for the second time and very kindly shared it with me so no single malts for me on Hogmanay!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,986
  • Dec 31, 2022 7:38am Dec 31, 2022 7:38am
Quoting p1pThief
{quote} Hey Terry Yes I was awake, this was 4pm New Zealand time... However, I was not at my charts...(I was still at work) so didn't see it until later on, after my trade had already hit its target It was a very unusual move for that time of day... too me, it smells of manipulation! (stop run/ liquidity grab etc.) This is my "theory" of what was going on, but take it with a grain of salt... {image} We have a head and shoulders (1) forming on the daily chart. A common way to trade this is to short a break of the neck line This same key level is...
That's 3 strikes Sir!

Referring back to this nonsense:

Study PRICE in the black box. It makes 7 attempts, NOT STRIKES, to CLOSE below support. It makes 8 attempts to CLOSE above resistance before finally doing so. Also note the huge increase in volume during this period.

Do you still think ""3"" attempts is meaningful and of value to us as PASR traders?

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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,987
  • Dec 31, 2022 7:57am Dec 31, 2022 7:57am
Quoting p1pThief
{quote} TRADE UPDATE: NZDUSD (continued from my previous post above ^...) HOURLY {image} The Market opens and price drifts up towards Fridays high. Fridays high acts as resistance throughout the day and in doing so, increases the amount of orders which get stacked at (1) along with all the break even stops from Thursdays Inside Day Despite the resistance holding, the market makes a series of higher lows (2) towards the level, This gives us a clue to a potential probe I go to bed at (3) and re add my order to offer the low (4) of Thursdays Inside...
The liquidity pool

liquidity for bigger traders to get out

liquidity grab

form a nice liquidity pool of market buys

The liquidity pool eventually gets penetrated (and absorbed)

liquidity grab etc

Smarter money (due to there share size) are drawn to these areas as they need a lot of liquidity,

All these sell orders provide liquidity to the smart money to exit there shorts

This ""liquidity" stuff is twisting your mind! When I get out of this Covid fog I will explain in detail.

What other cliches/useless statements do you trade by?

Not picking on you, just trying to get you on the straight and narrow PASR Path.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,988
  • Dec 31, 2022 8:24am Dec 31, 2022 8:24am
Quoting Strat
Bummer! The Big Boss who is fully vaccinated and boosted got Covid for the second time and very kindly shared it with me so no single malts for me on Hogmanay!
Hey Strat,
So sorry to hear you and your wife have covid and hopefully recover from it very soon.
All the best in the New Year
Regards
Terry
  • #15,989
  • Dec 31, 2022 8:45am Dec 31, 2022 8:45am
Quoting Strat
Bummer! The Big Boss who is fully vaccinated and boosted got Covid for the second time and very kindly shared it with me so no single malts for me on Hogmanay!
Pray for your speedy recovery!
  • #15,990
  • Dec 31, 2022 10:02am Dec 31, 2022 10:02am
Quoting Strat
Bummer! The Big Boss who is fully vaccinated and boosted got Covid for the second time and very kindly shared it with me so no single malts for me on Hogmanay!
Hi Strat,
Hope you will not have a heavy COVID and will bounce back to full health soon!
Around this time last year together with my wife we tested positive for COVID, and nursed ourselves out of it.
We paid particular attention to blood oxygen level, temperature and any sign/s of lounge infection. We did not need to use other medical treatment/s though we have been prepared for it just in case.
Could not PM you, as I would have preferred.
Best wishes,
2be
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #15,991
  • Dec 31, 2022 5:00pm Dec 31, 2022 5:00pm
Quoting TerryDawe
{quote}Hey Strat, So sorry to hear you and your wife have covid and hopefully recover from it very soon. All the best in the New Year Regards Terry
Thank you, Terry
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,992
  • Dec 31, 2022 5:01pm Dec 31, 2022 5:01pm
Quoting Corinna
{quote} Pray for your speedy recovery!
Thank you Corinna
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,993
  • Dec 31, 2022 5:10pm Dec 31, 2022 5:10pm
Quoting 2be
{quote} Hi Strat, Hope you will not have a heavy COVID and will bounce back to full health soon! Around this time last year together with my wife we tested positive for COVID, and nursed ourselves out of it. We paid particular attention to blood oxygen level, temperature and any sign/s of lounge infection. We did not need to use other medical treatment/s though we have been prepared for it just in case. Could not PM you, as I would have preferred. Best wishes, 2be
We first got it in November 2019 before vaccines were released. We just used over the counter medication and came out of it OK but this second round is worse giving us migraine like headaches and affecting our balance. We're tough stuff though coming from West Yorkshire in England so we will get over it. If all else fails we will fall back on copious amounts of alcohol!

I can't keep my PM open as I get inundated with people wanting me to trade their accounts and people wanting to pay me silly amounts of money to mentor them.

If you want me to open my PM to let you in for a short while, let me know.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,994
  • Dec 31, 2022 6:11pm Dec 31, 2022 6:11pm
Strat .. Get well for the New Year .
  • #15,995
  • Jan 1, 2023 7:22am Jan 1, 2023 7:22am
Quoting Lou
Strat .. Get well for the New Year .
Thanks Lou.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,996
  • Jan 1, 2023 8:17am Jan 1, 2023 8:17am
Quoting p1pThief
{quote} TRADE UPDATE: NZDUSD (continued from my previous post above ^...) HOURLY {image} The Market opens and price drifts up towards Fridays high. Fridays high acts as resistance throughout the day and in doing so, increases the amount of orders which get stacked at (1) along with all the break even stops from Thursdays Inside Day Despite the resistance holding, the market makes a series of higher lows (2) towards the level, This gives us a clue to a potential probe I go to bed at (3) and re add my order to offer the low (4) of Thursdays Inside...

The liquidity pool

liquidity for bigger traders to get out

liquidity grab

form a nice liquidity pool of market buys

The liquidity pool eventually gets penetrated (and absorbed)

liquidity grab etc

Smarter money (due to there share size) are drawn to these areas as they need a lot of liquidity,

All these sell orders provide liquidity to the smart money to exit there shorts

In all my 40+ years of trading, I have only met a few Professional traders. By "Professional" I mean those who have studied and taken their Professional Traders exams and obtained their Professional Traders Licenses. They are the Smart Money who trade $millions of other people's money. These are not to be confused with the ego maniacs who have "Professional Trader" in their FF Profile. There are no Professional Traders on Public Trading platforms - they have absolutely no interest in the peanuts that we retail traders trade. Professional Traders are the Smart Money/Big Boys - International Banks, Investment Banks, Hedge Funds etc. They are a commercial operation in business to make $millions for their clients (and themselves). They do not care, or are interested, in where the retail traders peanut stops and stop losses are - they gobble them up in a matter of seconds without blinking an eye. Their associates and company have access to information that only Professional Traders can get that help them make their $millions. The so called "Stop Run" by Smart Money to get our stops and screw us retail traders up is absolute nonsense. Yes, they will DRIVE PRICE up or down but only so that they can enter their $millions at a discounted PRICE ahead of a big move. Each Professional trader that I met told me the same thing - watch what PRICE does at SUPPORT, RESISTANCE and other meaningful PRICE levels - that's all.

This "Liquidity" nonsense was, I believe, started by an ego driven self proclaimed guru and wizard and his 1st Lieutenant who suddenly appeared out of nowhere onto FF. He claimed he takes profit within 1 pip of the top, sells within 1 pip of the top, takes profit within 1 pip of the bottom and buys within 1 pip of the bottom! Absolutely amazing - not even the Smart Money can do that! More important, he NEVER, EVER showed how he does it - all he disclosed was that he use TMA Bands and the secret is the settings which, again, he never disclosed. From there, they pushed the "Liquidity" nonsense which the retail traders jumped on like wild fire.

Go back and read and understand "Dr Joe" on these threads. What he disclosed is what has become to be known as "Order Block" and "Depth of Market" theory.

The bottom line of all this is SIMPLE - if you want to make consistent money trading, you have to think AND ACT like the Smart Money and NOT as retail traders. 99.9% of those on Public Trading Forums act and think like retail traders. While we retail traders do not have access to the resources that Smart Money have, we can SEE what they are doing/have done all be it after the fact. Smart Money CANNOT do anything without leaving a trail behind them - this is what I call the "FOOTSTEPS". Study and read beyond the candles, PRICE, PRICE STRUCTURE and the latest and current SUPPORT and RESISTANCE levels. While we cannot trade at the beginning of their moves, we can ride their coat tails until they change. This is what I coined "The Meat of the Trend" - trade 75%/80% of the Smart Money moves and you will be rich beyond your wildest dreams. Always WAIT for Smart Money to make their move and forget about jumping in on every blip that all retail traders jump on (and lose money).

I could go on but I would only be repeating what is already in my 2 threads.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,997
  • Jan 2, 2023 11:57am Jan 2, 2023 11:57am
Quoting Strat
Quoting p1pThief {quote} TRADE UPDATE: NZDUSD (continued from my previous post above ^...) HOURLY {image} The Market opens and price drifts up towards Fridays high. Fridays high acts as resistance throughout the day and in doing so, increases the amount of orders which get stacked at (1) along with all the break even stops from Thursdays Inside Day Despite the resistance holding, the market makes a series of higher lows (2) towards the level, This gives us a clue to a potential...
An example of PASR and trading the Meat of the Trend:
Once price bottomed, S/R levels noted on BB candle highs for move back up to last worker swing high.
Entries at each S/R level after move through and retrace back.
Last push failed as price had reached the swing high.
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  • #15,998
  • Jan 2, 2023 6:35pm Jan 2, 2023 6:35pm
Quoting TerryDawe
{quote} An example of PASR and trading the Meat of the Trend: Once price bottomed, S/R levels noted on BB candle highs for move back up to last worker swing high. Entries at each S/R level after move through and retrace back. Last push failed as price had reached the swing high. {image} {image} {image}
Thanks Terry - you make it sound so simple
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,999
  • Jan 2, 2023 11:52pm Jan 2, 2023 11:52pm
Quoting Strat
Quoting p1pThief {quote} TRADE UPDATE: NZDUSD (continued from my previous post above ^...) HOURLY {image} The Market opens and price drifts up towards Fridays high. Fridays high acts as resistance throughout the day and in doing so, increases the amount of orders which get stacked at (1) along with all the break even stops from Thursdays Inside Day Despite the resistance holding, the market makes a series of higher lows (2) towards the level, This gives us a clue to a potential...
Thanks for this detailed response Strat. What you have said above ^ makes sense and its good to hear the arguments against from someone who is as experienced (and profitable) as you are! I am very much still on the quest!

Most of my mumbo jumbo "ideas" came from books written by Wyckoff & Williams (Larry not Bill) and nothing I have read on FF, thankfully!

Bugger - I thought I was on to something, but obviously not!

I will go back and read & re read the thread until I'm blue in the face (and especially Dr Joe!) and try not to be distracted by other means again...

I look forward to posting my future analysis this year, without all the mumbo jumbo!

Merry Christmas & Happy New Year to you. I hope that you & the Boss make a speedy recovery!
  • #16,000
  • Jan 2, 2023 11:54pm Jan 2, 2023 11:54pm
Quoting TerryDawe
{quote} An example of PASR and trading the Meat of the Trend: Once price bottomed, S/R levels noted on BB candle highs for move back up to last worker swing high. Entries at each S/R level after move through and retrace back. Last push failed as price had reached the swing high. {image} {image} {image}
Thanks Terry. You do make this look simple!
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