Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

DOW Daily with few fibs

Strat, on the white chart the vertical lines might remind you of something, like you I am not using that concept, though I use Robert Miner charting software, as it has some useful functions.

DOW - Friday's Low looks like an important level, I shall be buying above it and selling below it.

On WK and Daily DOW looks bullish, but as usual anything can happen.

DOW - Friday's Low looks like an important level, I shall be buying above it and selling below it.


Agree. there is a lot of confluence in that area so important to watch. Thanks for the heads up.

M1 & M5 EURO


Low volume as expected before Christmas Break but PA pretty good.

Can you illustrate more on this as I am still confused even though I had read your explanation many times.

Suggest you ask your new friends in Indicator Land or in the other threads as you thread hop in search for the Holy Grail.

"And another one bites the dust!"

DOW - retest of Fri L followed by a quality WRB would be most welcomed, until then I trade lightly. currently my bias is becoming more bullish, a sure sight of danger!!! will not enter a large long position before confirmation! Strange as USD index is down and so is VIX and DOW is not responding, yet???
So far no confirmation of a long bias, scalping territory so far during the NYSE session.

currently my bias is becoming more bullish

You may well be right but bias never worked for me so I just follow PRICE structure, Strat Shadow and higher time frames - Bias hurts my head

Brilliant analysis.

The feedback Strat gave me about "guessing" smart money targets, and simply waiting for reverse PA was a bit of a "light bulb" moment and has really got me thinking about how I can incorporate this into my trading instead of blindly "guessing" and "hoping" where price will go

I will be watching closely for reverse PA too (Thanks Strat)

Remember, this is my style and what makes me $$ - it may not fit your style or other's style - keep trying different ways until you find what fits your style.

If you study my entries and exits you will see the PRICE patterns I use which of course, are valid across all time frames as the Markets are fractal.

Thanks for that, yes bias is a strange and unnecessary interruption, better be without it!!!
You are very right on that.
Thankfully PA and the structure is keeping me safe!!!

TRADE UPDATE: NZDUSD (continued from my previous post above ^...)

HOURLY

1. The Market opens and price drifts up towards Fridays high.
2. Fridays high acts as resistance throughout the day and in doing so, increases the amount of orders which get stacked at (1) along with all the break even stops from Thursdays Inside Day
3. Despite the resistance holding, the market makes a series of higher lows (2) towards the level, This gives us a clue to a potential probe
4. I go to bed at (3) and re add my order to offer the low (4) of Thursdays Inside bar
5. My stop remains unchanged (5) for reasons described in my earlier post
6. My target is the most recent, daily swing low (6). I am trading from a bid chart, so I add a couple of pips to account for the spread
7. The liquidity pool eventually gets penetrated (and absorbed) I am filled here also
8. Price then closes back below with a very nice shooting star for those still awake at the time
9. The silly season is upon us (7) this candle was at 4pm NZ time (no news either) In hindsight this candle may have been a clue to price making a run on the neck line of the daily head and shoulders

DAILY

1. Technically speaking - price is still in an up-trend, making higher highs and higher lows (weekly has yet to confirm the down swing also)
2. Therefore, I have gone with the most recent swing low as my target
3. This way I don't have to "gamble" on a break in price structure, incase it is just a pull-back
4. If it does turn into something longer term then id prefer to just get out for now, then get back in again on a break + retest as drawn
5. This tends to suit both my account balance & my little people better than the "hold and hope strategy" which I use to use...
6. I did consider the swing prior as a target due to the head and shoulders, neck line confluence but I'm trying to be less greedy! Had the trade not been counter trend, (and this target, not past ATR) maybe I would have gone with it.
7. Anyway, target hit. 3.45:1 R:R trade. Gotta love PASR!

Thanks for the feedback on my previous post Strat. I will spend some time over the break, studying your entry's to see if I can decipher the code (your trading thoughts!)

Merry Christmas All!

I will spend some time over the break, studying your entry's to see if I can decipher the code (your trading thoughts!)

Tip: Make sure you understand my definition of Swing Highs and Swing Lows AND Fibonacci (and of course,levels, areas, zones of SR).

M1, M5, M15 & H1 EURO



Small but orderly PA as yesterday.

Despite the resistance holding, the market makes a series of higher lows (2) towards the level, This gives us a clue to a potential probe

If you draw a small trendline on those lows, you can see a coil compressing/squeezing the buyers until they drop out and confirm the Shooting Star.


My stop remains unchanged (5) for reasons described in my earlier post

NO! The Shooting Star has already shown you the current extreme of buying so your stop goes a few pips above it's high - More study needed on our PASR candles!

My target is the most recent, daily swing low (6). I am trading from a bid chart, so I add a couple of pips to account for the spread

If you are awake, make it a "mental" target so that you can stay in if PRICE continues down.

This way I don't have to "gamble" on a break in price structure, in case it is just a pull-back

PASR isn't gambling so stay at the top of the class!

 

1. If it does turn into something longer term then id prefer to just get out for now, then get back in again on a break + retest as drawn
2. This tends to suit both my account balance & my little people better than the "hold and hope strategy" which I used to use...

Oh you are good!

Anyway, target hit. 3.45:1 R:R trade. Gotta love PASR!

Say it again............................Gotta love PASR!

Excellent analysis and good trade, well done.
A question: Were you awake and watching the chart when that #7 candle occurred? I am interested because I would like to know your thoughts while it was occurring.

One other bit of confluence is the BRNs marked with the arrows.

Regards
Terry

Hey Terry

Yes I was awake, this was 4pm New Zealand time... However, I was not at my charts...(I was still at work) so didn't see it until later on, after my trade had already hit its target

It was a very unusual move for that time of day... too me, it smells of manipulation! (stop run/ liquidity grab etc.)

This is my "theory" of what was going on, but take it with a grain of salt...

1. We have a head and shoulders (1) forming on the daily chart. A common way to trade this is to short a break of the neck line
2. This same key level is also a "break" in price structure... A lower low... (the possible beginning of a trend change, down...)
3. I have drawn the neckline at (2) which is at the extreme low of the swing. (Most people put their stops + trade breakouts, beyond extremes...)
4. Basically - for the reasons above, there would of been a ton of shorts stacked at (3) + all the stops of those long, trading with the trend
5. Smarter money (due to there share size) are drawn to these areas as they need a lot of liquidity, to fill the other side of there positions without being slipped
6. Try buying & selling nano-cap stocks (penny stocks) on the Australian or New Zealand stock exchange and you will experience this problem first hand!
7. Fridays high is marked at (4) this was also the high of the big ugly candle

1. My stop was at point (1) phew!
2. Yesterdays ATR is marked at point (8)
3. The extreme low of the swing (+ neckline) is marked at (2)
4. This serves as an ideal location for the smarter money to take some profits on their shorts
5. Price breaks the low at (2) Stops are hit & shorts are filled at (3). All these sell orders provide liquidity to the smart money to exit there shorts (buy back)
6. The shorts are absorbed and as a result, price fails to close below the swing point
7. Shorts are now trapped and price makes an aggressive move higher as their stops are hit on the way up (4)
8. Long story short - is that smart money know where all the orders are likely to be. And they need to take the market to these levels in order for them to do business
9. Some times they leave us "footsteps" - as master Strat would say.
10. Personally I think that the big ugly candle at (5) is exactly that - a "footstep"
11. My thinking is that: Whilst liquidity was low (Asian session) smart money took the market higher, filled shorts (with stops) in an attempt to push price down to the swing at (3) where they knew all the sell orders were sitting, so that they could take some profits (exit / buy back)
12. At the time of the big ugly candle, I do not see any short term incentive for smart money to take price higher, temporarily. But there was an incentive for them to take price lower in the short term.
13. Fridays high is at (7) where the big candle reacted from
14. In hindsight - the price action in the yellow box, marked at (6) gave us a clue that price was going to make a move higher
    1. The first candle breaks support (just) but fails to close below it
    2. The second candle makes a new low, but again, fails to close below support
    3. The third candle makes a new low once again, but also fails to close below support
    4. That's 3 strikes Sir!

Hope my "theory" makes sense!

Cheers

M1, M5 & M15 EURO

Today's story so far.....................

M1, M5 & M15 EURO

Meanwhile, back at the ranch...........................


EDIT : Missed this trade while posting so no more posting until my day is done!!!!!!

Well my day IS done - the Big Boss has told me I have to go to the Hypermarket with her to buy supplies, food, booze etc., as we are having the family, kids, grand kids, friends and hangers on over on Christmas Day!

MERRY CHRISTMAS

Blizzard starting here in Minne-Snow-Ta
White Christmas

DOW has made some move up after forming Bullish Outside Bar

M1, M5 & M15 EURO



As is usual during US Holidays, PA is slow and small BUT orderly. Convention says not to trade during holidays, but for a trading addict like me, it presents an opportunity to trade riskier entries by selling the highs in the downtrend. PA is so slow that if PRICE goes against me, I have time to get out with small $$ Profit, or worse case, break even.

What has also dropped out of this is that the Volume on my Trading Account is very different to that on my Charting Account and while I trust neither, my Trading Account Volume "seems" more accurate but still nowhere near as accurate as when I traded Futures & Commodities in the 90s.

Based on the declining Volume as we near the end of the week/Christmas, it suggests trading tomorrow will be like trading fly shit in a pepper pot but what else have I got to do?