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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #3,841
  • Apr 27, 2007 7:56am Apr 27, 2007 7:56am
Quoting haniam
Closed first postion @ 1.3640 for + 50 pips as we are on R1 and close to the news.
Moving SL of second postion to 1.3625, just under M3 level.
Closed second postion for a + 40 pips totaling 90 pips.
Isn't this system lovely?
Even 4h MACD can not give a signal yet, but as planned, I went short at the all time hi, at 1.3675 for a retracement and took alreay half postion our for + 15 pips. Moving SL for second part to break even.
I expect EU to test again the highs and it would be a good opportunity to go short, with a stop loss at 1.3730 for long term postionning.
  • #3,842
  • Apr 27, 2007 8:03am Apr 27, 2007 8:03am
A good way to wrap the week.

Seriously, you could have been on ANY of the following:

usdjpy (short)
usdcad (short)
usdchf (short)
eurusd (long)
gbpusd (long)
audusd (long)

and you would've made money since the signals were kind of similar for all of them. All dependent on usd dropping like a rock.

Question is, would anyone have taken on ALL of the above at the same time? Isn't that duplicating risk many times over?
  • #3,843
  • Apr 27, 2007 8:18am Apr 27, 2007 8:18am
Quoting weghio
A good way to wrap the week.

Seriously, you could have been on ANY of the following:

usdjpy (short)
usdcad (short)
usdchf (short)
eurusd (long)
gbpusd (long)
audusd (long)

and you would've made money since the signals were kind of similar for all of them. All dependent on usd dropping like a rock.

Question is, would anyone have taken on ALL of the above at the same time? Isn't that duplicating risk many times over?
Hi Weghio,

Isn't that duplicating risk many times over?
Not necessarily.
It depends on your strategy.
Currencies tends to be correlated and to go in the same direction or in opposite direction. But different new and facts affects currencies in different manner. And it is not rare that you see GU going up while EU going down for example, or EU and UJ going both in same directions.

So taking all these currencies may be a way to diversify your portfolio and in fact to divide your risk to be stopped out, since a spike may affect a currency but not another one.

But, and there's a but, the main problem you may encounter is a bad money management. Taking all these currencies may affect your money management rules (and if you don't have one, you are in trouble!), and that may duplicate a lot your risk. And following all these currencies may let you loose your head, if you are a beginner, and let you take bad decisions by affecting your emotions.

So if you decide to take many currencies to trade, do your researches, define your entry point, your exits following your strategy, then fire and forget!

Good trading

Hani
  • #3,844
  • Edited 8:50am Apr 27, 2007 8:37am | Edited 8:50am
The tail got a lot of people. Look at the support levels, trendline. When doing that trade keep the support area in focus as it might be tested. Your stoploss must be outside that when it is major S/R areas.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,845
  • Apr 27, 2007 8:44am Apr 27, 2007 8:44am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Look at the support levels, trendline. When ndoing that trade keep the support area in focus as it might be tested. Your stoploss must be outside that when it is major S/R areas.
Thanks Phillip.

That wicked tail hit the trendline and retreated, I can now see clearly.

I used to draw trendlines ignoring tail. From now, I draw them from the tip of wick.
  • #3,846
  • Apr 27, 2007 10:14am Apr 27, 2007 10:14am
The Eleven oclock spike strikes again. Got all of it Too.

J
  • #3,847
  • Apr 27, 2007 10:17am Apr 27, 2007 10:17am
The bottom fell out.
  • #3,848
  • Apr 27, 2007 3:33pm Apr 27, 2007 3:33pm
I got wipped by the tail, just found out as I returned from work. Lesson learned.
  • #3,849
  • Apr 27, 2007 5:03pm Apr 27, 2007 5:03pm
Quoting kappa
Hi all,

When MACD gave a RB at 4 GMT on GBP/USD, it was a beatiful one. 1 hr did not show TC. It was very tempting.
I took it, and my s/l was blown out !

After a sharp drop, it was a consolidation time. A lot of tension was expected b4 US news. Should have waited b4 jumped in. Phillip once mentioned this in his "Consolidation Management". He is really a experienced wise guy.
I placed a buy limit on this trade and forgot the stoploss. I woke up this morning, put on the 15 pip trailing stop and caught 90+ while at work. I probably couldn't do that again if I tried!! Just got lucky I guess.
  • #3,850
  • Apr 27, 2007 9:31pm Apr 27, 2007 9:31pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
The tail got a lot of people. Look at the support levels, trendline. When doing that trade keep the support area in focus as it might be tested. Your stoploss must be outside that when it is major S/R areas.
Hi Philip,

In regards to what you metioned abt stoploss, if the SL is more then 35pips would you usually take it even if it means a potential profit of 60-70pips?


thanks for sharing...your 4hrMCAD has been a great tool.

cheers
  • #3,851
  • Apr 27, 2007 10:50pm Apr 27, 2007 10:50pm
Quoting hard1head1
The Eleven oclock spike strikes again. Got all of it Too.

J
No mystery....Just a run up in the news...then London booking their profits and squaring the books (11 EST is London Fix)...Nice job catching the fade (hmmmm...not a 4 hour strategy...but very nicely done...be careful, the fade doesn't always play out the way we want....specially if the big boys are getting ready to move prices in the following week).
  • #3,852
  • Apr 27, 2007 10:56pm Apr 27, 2007 10:56pm
Anybody notice that "wicked" tail bounced on the 20 SMA for the daily.(where fund managers suppossedly like to buy)...was supposed to have a buy order there....but I've been making horrible admin errors for the last 2 weeks. Time for a rest......

Before I go on vacation, I wanted to take a minute and wish Palmer a happy belated birthday.....Yikes!!!

& Welcome Phillip back! Yippeee!!!!! Hope your holiday was outstanding.....

& Thank Kappa for posting the results of the month of s/l testing...sorry I didn't do it sooner . Very interesting observation.....

May everyone have a very profitable Trading Week ahead!

Pips
  • #3,853
  • Apr 27, 2007 11:04pm Apr 27, 2007 11:04pm
Quoting pips4uandme
Anybody notice that "wicked" tail bounced on the 20 SMA for the daily.(where fund managers suppossedly like to buy)...was supposed to have a buy order there....but I've been making horrible admin errors for the last 2 weeks. Time for a rest......

Before I go on vacation, I wanted to take a minute and wish Palmer a happy belated birthday.....Yikes!!!

& Welcome Phillip back! Yippeee!!!!! Hope your holiday was outstanding.....

& Thank Kappa for posting the results of the month of s/l testing...sorry I didn't do it sooner . Very interesting observation.....

May everyone have a very profitable Trading Week ahead!

Pips


PIPS, enjoy your vacation. Hope to see you soon devouring more pips!!!
  • #3,854
  • Apr 28, 2007 11:15pm Apr 28, 2007 11:15pm
Thanks for your response haniam; will keep in mind.

EURGBP ended last week with what looks like a TC. Price also recently moved through the 200MA. I don't see any opposing signals on the 1hr. Would this be a good long trade?

If so, I assume the S/L would be just below the 21MA? Also how would you determine the profit target? I've always had problems setting a good profit target when it comes to TC signals.

Comments from anyone and everyone appreciated..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,855
  • Apr 28, 2007 11:23pm Apr 28, 2007 11:23pm
Regarding the above eurgbp, I'm not sure this is relevant but thought it was interesting nonetheless. Multiple recent bounces off the 365..I have no idea what this means if anything for the TC signal though.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,856
  • Edited 5:15am Apr 29, 2007 1:49am | Edited 5:15am
Quoting weghio
Thanks for your response haniam; will keep in mind.

EURGBP ended last week with what looks like a TC. Price also recently moved through the 200MA. I don't see any opposing signals on the 1hr. Would this be a good long trade?

If so, I assume the S/L would be just below the 21MA? Also how would you determine the profit target? I've always had problems setting a good profit target when it comes to TC signals.

Comments from anyone and everyone appreciated..
Hi wegio,

Ya, seems like a valid TC.

I have one trendline Resistance drawn from July 2006. Another one drawn from March 21st this year. The attached is a daily chart.

If you wait for retracement to go long, R/R will be improved.


ps: Hi pips, enjoy vacation ! Hope you come back to the forum soon !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp0429.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #3,857
  • Apr 29, 2007 6:38am Apr 29, 2007 6:38am
Quoting weghio
Thanks for your response haniam; will keep in mind.

EURGBP ended last week with what looks like a TC. Price also recently moved through the 200MA. I don't see any opposing signals on the 1hr. Would this be a good long trade?

If so, I assume the S/L would be just below the 21MA? Also how would you determine the profit target? I've always had problems setting a good profit target when it comes to TC signals.

Comments from anyone and everyone appreciated..

Hi Weghio,

The EU/GB long signal looks for me, but bear in mind that there is a resistance very close, around 6833/6834 that has stopped the price recently. Then you have another resistance at 6843, last week's high, and that line goes back to March 5. At that point price retraced for a while and then went up to 6854, where it found some resistance, broke through it after a while, to go up to 6865 and make this year's high. From there it has retraced down to 6745 and now it is on its way up again.

If I was to trade this one, I would wait until price breaks through the 6844 resistance, then retrace back, as Kappa suggests, and then jump in as soon as it starts moving up again. My TP's will be the previous mentioned RL's: 6843, 6854 and 6865. For your first TP: 6843 the R:R is negative. So I will watch the movement very closely until it brakes through this barrier.

As many say in this forum: just my two cents.
  • #3,858
  • Apr 29, 2007 8:05am Apr 29, 2007 8:05am
Thanks kappa and alcastro for your help. Waiting seems the prudent choice.
  • #3,859
  • Apr 29, 2007 12:12pm Apr 29, 2007 12:12pm
Info
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GbpUsd.jpg Size: 60 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Weekly Wrapup.zip   827 KB | 1,490 downloads
  • #3,860
  • Apr 29, 2007 2:25pm Apr 29, 2007 2:25pm
hello phil, i want to ask bout ur weekly wrap, after signal number 6, there are candlestick down and reach 89 sma why u didnt take that signal??

tq for ur answer
still in learning curve
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