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M1 Countertrend Scalping Strategy

  • #761
  • Dec 28, 2022 8:37am Dec 28, 2022 8:37am
Hello fellas,

i am monitoring the thread constantly. I have also placed some entires with demo account and have been profitable.
the question is mainly addressed to the @cpfleger who has been kind to share his knowledge here:
with the 10% of the trades not being successful, what is the maximum drawdown you be ever experienced . Could you share such a trade here in order to understand what would be the drawdown in such a losing trade. I am asking this since I cannot really understand why people claim that this strategy is risky….. for me it would be some manageable loss and not a disaster loss
sorry for the noob questions and thank you for your time in advance
  • #762
  • Dec 28, 2022 8:40am Dec 28, 2022 8:40am
EURJPY
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYM1.png Size: 23 KB
veni vidi vici
  • #763
  • Dec 28, 2022 8:41am Dec 28, 2022 8:41am
Quoting mansan
EURJPY {image}
OOOps ... did something wrong with the layout
veni vidi vici
  • #764
  • Dec 28, 2022 8:57am Dec 28, 2022 8:57am
papadas,
the EMA Strategy does have risk like all trading systems. the main risk is the reversal keeps going away from the entry point which as we all know is Drawdown but like KoF Video's shows even on his two video trade, Drawdown is part of trading. I do not trade early like he does (KoF), I use my additional Indicators to reduce my entry risks but I have had to WAIT many times for the Drawdown to come back to MA.

I try and tell everyone to master the process (mainly the entry point and exiting on the 20 EMA) to enable confidence in the only Holy Grail - YOU. This is a single person Business and every Trader must learn to develop him / herself. Practice and practice on a small account supports your development process, shoot for 90% plus performance and then watch the profits come in....
cpfleger
  • #765
  • Dec 28, 2022 8:59am Dec 28, 2022 8:59am
Another victim...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: KoF.jpg Size: 554 KB
  • #766
  • Dec 28, 2022 9:01am Dec 28, 2022 9:01am
mansan,
add the zz Indicator, see above paperclip or go through the post pages and find attached Indicator as this will replace your yellow dots.
cpfleger
  • #767
  • Dec 28, 2022 9:14am Dec 28, 2022 9:14am
Daily MPV Award goes to - USDJPY.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: KoF.jpg Size: 473 KB
  • #768
  • Dec 28, 2022 9:27am Dec 28, 2022 9:27am
Quoting mansan
EURJPY {image}
Look for an option to "Shift end of the chart from right border", maybe that's the thing that's messing up the chart.
  • #769
  • Dec 28, 2022 9:33am Dec 28, 2022 9:33am
Quoting cpfleger
mansan, add the zz Indicator, see above paperclip or go through the post pages and find attached Indicator as this will replace your yellow dots. cpfleger
Thank you ... It is working now
BTW this is DEMO, I am still learning this strategy so I still make mistakes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 44 KB
veni vidi vici
  • #770
  • Dec 28, 2022 9:33am Dec 28, 2022 9:33am
Quoting Abade
{quote} Look for an option to "Shift end of the chart from right border", maybe that's the thing that's messing up the chart.
Thanks for the input .. I will look into it
veni vidi vici
  • #771
  • Edited 9:59am Dec 28, 2022 9:35am | Edited 9:59am
Quoting papadas
Hello fellas, i am monitoring the thread constantly. I have also placed some entires with demo account and have been profitable. the question is mainly addressed to the @cpfleger who has been kind to share his knowledge here: with the 10% of the trades not being successful, what is the maximum drawdown you be ever experienced . Could you share such a trade here in order to understand what would be the drawdown in such a losing trade. I am asking this since I cannot really understand why people claim that this strategy is risky….. for me it would...
Remember where the skewness comes from:

Mean reversion = Higher winning rate, smaller wins. You depend on your higher winrate to offset your losing trades.
Trend trading = Lower winning rate, bigger wins. You depend on "homerun trades" to offset your losing trades.

If you want to know why traders call this risky, try to look for big movements where price doesn't return back to the EMAs for a long time. You are supposed to offset this risk with your superior win-rate, selecting which markets to trade, delaying your entries and smart risk management.

Both can work, you have to study the markets and know which approach is best for each one of them. Experienced traders combine both to reduce overall risk.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Strong breakouts.png Size: 49 KB


Quoting mansan
{quote} Thank you ... It is working now BTW this is DEMO, I am still learning this strategy so I still make mistakes {image}
Mistakes are good for learning .

Try to get at least 200 different setups to get confidence and some degree of statistical significance.
  • #772
  • Dec 28, 2022 10:26am Dec 28, 2022 10:26am
Thought some of you might like this free breakeven indicator I found.
It helps me by placing a break even line for open combined buy and sell trades so you know where you are at on on your positions at any one time.
The buys and sells get different color lines to make it easy to tell which trades are represented.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 74 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 me_Breakeven_Line v2.2.ex4   12 KB | 363 downloads
  • #773
  • Dec 28, 2022 10:34am Dec 28, 2022 10:34am
days trading report.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: KoF.jpg Size: 605 KB
  • #774
  • Dec 28, 2022 10:47am Dec 28, 2022 10:47am
Today was more difficult.
and a summary of the 5 study days
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #775
  • Dec 28, 2022 11:06am Dec 28, 2022 11:06am
Quoting Magiruss
Today was more difficult. and a summary of the 5 study days {image} {image}
AUD is harder to trade with this strategy. Short-term trends tend to go deeper and the bounces are slower and weaker than EURUSD/GBPUSD. Trend-following is highly effective in commodity and future markets, so we can expect that commodity based economies behave in a similar way (at least that's my hypothesis).

And still, you made profits so it was a good day
  • #776
  • Dec 28, 2022 11:09am Dec 28, 2022 11:09am
it seems that cfleger does not use stop losses
  • #777
  • Dec 28, 2022 11:14am Dec 28, 2022 11:14am
EURCAD,things to remember,one can open new position as ema9 cut order ,exit when price touch ema100 on m1,loss or profit,if price get good momentum from beginning ,one can target even ema 200 or more.But originally we target ema20 ,so I target ema100 on 1min..Maybe when I get more experienced just target ema 20 on m1 and done.... Here I exited on ema100 ,was in profit and too many orders opened
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad288.png Size: 57 KB
Make your own rules and stick to it.
  • #778
  • Dec 28, 2022 11:20am Dec 28, 2022 11:20am
Quoting Abade
{quote} My friend! Try using cost averaging instead of a hard stop loss. In this case the EURCAD bounced all the way back to the 50 and 200, you can be slightly wrong and still have a profitable setup, that's the whole point of the original strategy: {image} You lower your risk by using small lot sizes and avoiding pairs that don't chop/bounce well enough after a breakout.
Thanks Abade for the info, I will try it
  • #779
  • Dec 28, 2022 11:20am Dec 28, 2022 11:20am
charli86,
the 20 ema is the easiest target to enable you to build your performance confidence, once you hit 90% plus then go to 50 ema, etc.
cpfleger
  • #780
  • Dec 28, 2022 11:25am Dec 28, 2022 11:25am
Quoting charli86
EURCAD,things to remember,one can open new position as ema9 cut order ,exit when price touch ema100 on m1,loss or profit,if price get good momentum from beginning ,one can target even ema 200 or more.But originally we target ema20 ,so I target ema100 on 1min..Maybe when I got more experienced just target ema 20 on m1 and done.... Here I exited on ema100 ,was in profit and too many orders opened {image} {image}
Hi charli86! Your entries and timing seems to be on-point, however I would have closed the trades manually at the 20 and 50 EMA touches as there were plenty of opportunities to get out with profits. In this case, adding more positions wouldn't improve the final outcome and may even increase DD/risk unnecessarily.

EURCAD looks like a nice pair to trade BTW! Just wish the spread was a little lower to trade w/o commisions.

Thanks for sharing my friend
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Norbert84