Fundamental/Quantitative analysis

EUR CNY

Turkey’s President Erdogan: The grain deal has been extended for 120 days.

China’s President Xi: If an attempt to weaponize the economy, trade relations should be rejected.

USD

Fed's Bullard cites policy rules suggesting rates of between 5%-7%.

Fed's Bullard: Monetary rule would set a lower bound on the restrictive policy of around 5%, versus the current Fed target rate range of 3.75% to 4%.

USD

Fed's Bullard: The October inflation data was encouraging, but it could easily go the other way next time, with inflation remaining high.

Fed's Bullard: So far, any signs of disinflation are speculative at best, but 2023 is hoped to be the year when it occurs.

Fear and Greed Index

BTC Fear and Greed Index

USD

Fed's Kashkari: I hope projections that inflation will drop in 2023 are correct, if they are, I would imagine we would stop raising rates in 2023.

Forex Pairs Strength

EUR

ECB's President Lagarde: Flexible reinvestment of PEPP will stay in place.

RUB

Gazprom will not buy gas from hostile countries if the price exceeds the price set by Russia's cabinet - Tass cites Putin's Decree.

USD

US GDP QoQ Final Actual 3.2% Forecast 2.9%, Previous 2.9% (DXY & US 10 Yr Yield strengthened, S&P 500 & Gold weakened)

USD

The US Government $1.66 trillion funding bill secures enough votes to pass house of representatives, voting continues.

Energy

North Dakota is currently curtailing 300,000-350,000 barrels of oil per day - North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources.

Energy

CFTC Positions in the week on December 20th

1. Euro net long position is 142,272 contracts.
2. Japanese Yen net short position is -40,881 contracts.
3. Swiss Franc posts net short position of -4,064 contracts.
4. British Pound net short position is -5,603 contracts.
5. Equity fund speculators trim S&P 500 CME net short position by 50,257 contracts to 43,608.
6. Equity fund managers cut S&P 500 CME net long position by 8,917 contracts to 88,225
7. Bitcoin net long position is 317 contracts.
8. Speculators increase CBOT US Treasury bonds futures net short position by 24,599 contracts to 141,337.
9. Speculators trim CBOT US ultrabond Treasury futures net short position by 5,367 contracts to 361,801.
10. Speculators trim CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures net short position by 15,742 contracts to 506,057.
11. Speculators trim CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position by 59,495 contracts to 316,943.
12. Speculators trim CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures net short position by 28,943 contracts to 662,594.
13. Money managers have increased their bullish NYMEX WTI Crude oil bets by 12,930 net-long positions to 188,583.
14. Money managers have decreased their bullish Natural Gas bets by 23,103 net-long positions to 54,831.
15. Money managers have increased their bullish Gold bets by 1,898 net-long positions to 58,452

CNY

China central banker calls for strengthening property sector policies

Happy Christmas FF Community

CNY

Beginning on January 8th, the China Immigration Administration will resume issuance of visas for mainland citizens travelling abroad.

USD Energy

North Dakota Pipeline Authority: An estimated output of 450,000-500,000 bpd has been curtailed over the Christmas weekend in the Bakken oilfields.

USD

Fed bids for 2-year Notes total $0.

Fed bids for 52-Week bills total $4.5 bln.

RUB Energy

Putin's decree bans the supply of oil to clients who adhere to the Western price cap.

Index

Richmond Fed Composite Index December 2022 Full Report.