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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #3,821
  • Apr 26, 2007 8:21pm Apr 26, 2007 8:21pm
Quoting weghio
Thanks Josh re: usdcad the other day

Currently keen on USDJPY and the possible RT forming...given the sudden previous upsurge it looks good for a retrace imo.
Hey, Weghio, RT on JPY crosses can be very Dissapointed, or else very profitable, but Be CAREFULL!!


BYE
MIKE
  • #3,822
  • Apr 26, 2007 8:33pm Apr 26, 2007 8:33pm
Anybody considering the JPY INTEREST Rate dec. and commentary releasing sometime tonight???????

This will be a huge piece of info for the market....to Carry or not to Carry...that is the question .
  • #3,823
  • Apr 26, 2007 9:28pm Apr 26, 2007 9:28pm
While waiting on the usdjpy (previous bar didn't turn out to be a RT after all), this gbpusd jumped out at me. Nice RB, and price is sitting right on top of the 89MA. Previous 2-3 bars trying to penetrate it and couldn't, forming tails. What do you folks think.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,824
  • Apr 26, 2007 9:32pm Apr 26, 2007 9:32pm
Quoting pips4uandme
Anybody considering the JPY INTEREST Rate dec. and commentary releasing sometime tonight???????

This will be a huge piece of info for the market....to Carry or not to Carry...that is the question .
Hi, Pips

I have read your comments yesterday, my Basic English doesn't allow me to do comments like you, but I learn a lot with you, Thanks for your contribution.
I will try to stay awake to see what happens with that statement.

Bye
MIKE
  • #3,825
  • Apr 26, 2007 9:41pm Apr 26, 2007 9:41pm
Quoting weghio
While waiting on the usdjpy (previous bar didn't turn out to be a RT after all), this gbpusd jumped out at me. Nice RB, and price is sitting right on top of the 89MA. Previous 2-3 bars trying to penetrate it and couldn't, forming tails. What do you folks think.
See my RB and it is more perfect than yours.
We must wait more two candles to see what happen.

BYE
MIKE
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  • #3,826
  • Edited 10:08pm Apr 26, 2007 9:47pm | Edited 10:08pm
Quoting hard1head1
Just an observation.

Has any one seen the evening star on the E/U Daily.

J

Jim, I have a limit order to go short on this one @ 1.3583. Not a MACD signal. Just following the evening star.

I had to edit this message because as a matter of fact this evening star was announced by the MACD system. Only that it announced it before the 3rd candle confirmation. So it was an early announcement. i didn't take it at that time because it was very close to the 8 MA and could had bounced back up with a TC, and it was a countertrend, and i am a chicken. That is why now I have a limit order (short) right under the 8 MA. If it goes below it it might go down to the 21 MA. Remember I am talking about the daily chart!!!
  • #3,827
  • Apr 26, 2007 9:50pm Apr 26, 2007 9:50pm
Quoting pips4uandme
I get my morning and evening stars mixed up...but yes, Hard1Head1, I have a doji from the day before last on my daily charts.

As to the EMA question posed earlier....Both respondents are right....If you wanted an equavalent MA that shows the same on the daily as on the 4 hour, you would multiply through for the period....

If you wanted the same system on a larger time frame, you would keep the settings the same. Then you are only using info pertinent to the daily chart.

Think AlCastro could answer the question best on the daily, how the system performs b/c he is in process of testing it. From what I gather, it works well, just doesn't give many signals...which could be a really good thing! (keep us from overtrading).



I don't follow the GDP/Can. But what Donna says is right. The daily is generating good results, but less trades. I am using the same settings as the 4hr. I understand that Phillip is doing the same.
  • #3,828
  • Apr 26, 2007 11:02pm Apr 26, 2007 11:02pm
Quoting sublimeonskunk
Palmer, first of all happy birthday, Im sorry I missunderstood your question I use the MT4 platform, however I dont know how to draw the SMA and the EMA' s needed. I have looked and havent found any indicators downloadable so I imagine they are a part of the system already, can someone please advise. Either can I download your indicator or can someone explain how to draw them. Thank You.

Peace, Justice, Unity
Hi sublimeonskunk
Here are a few places you would find very useful w.r.t. MT4 platform. You should really read up on this at forex factory's Meta Trader forum. Some great advice from many knowledgeable traders who use it.
http://www.xeatrade.com/trading/11.html
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...10&postcount=4
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=6128
http://www.alpari-idc.com/en/metatra...ide/index.html

Best of luck and many pips.
  • #3,829
  • Apr 27, 2007 12:47am Apr 27, 2007 12:47am
Cable and usd/jap are about to form rt and rb...
Good luck
  • #3,830
  • Apr 27, 2007 1:09am Apr 27, 2007 1:09am
no deal on gbpusd for several reasons including what I thought for sure was going to be RB turned out not to be at the last minute.

In on usdjpy short though @119.55, despite some misgivings. SL 24 pips, TP much more. god help me.
  • #3,831
  • Apr 27, 2007 1:11am Apr 27, 2007 1:11am
Quoting alcastro
Jim, I have a limit order to go short on this one @ 1.3583. Not a MACD signal. Just following the evening star.

I had to edit this message because as a matter of fact this evening star was announced by the MACD system. Only that it announced it before the 3rd candle confirmation. So it was an early announcement. i didn't take it at that time because it was very close to the 8 MA and could had bounced back up with a TC, and it was a countertrend, and i am a chicken. That is why now I have a limit order (short) right under the 8 MA. If it goes below it it might go down to the 21 MA. Remember I am talking about the daily chart!!!
EU is actually on a major pivot level being 1.3580. Looking at the daily charts, we have an evening star and this is bearish. H1 shows a drop, then a chanel trading suggesting a second drop if level broken targetting 1.3540.

H4 MACD is not telling a lot yet. Kind of a RT, but under .0015 level, so a TC can be as well.

So my strategy would be to go long around 1.3590 with a stop reverse under 1.3580, first target up 1.3620, adding to position if broken second target 1.3665 for a second all hi time test. Will reverse then if this level holds.

Else, if 1.3580 is broken, I go short targetting 1.3540 first.

In four words, watch for 1.3580 level

Hani
  • #3,832
  • Apr 27, 2007 1:14am Apr 27, 2007 1:14am
Quoting turk87
Cable and usd/jap are about to form rt and rb...
Good luck
I saw these beautiful RT's and RB's on Cable and USDCHF too,turk87, but they weren't confirmed by the 1hr charts,as these showed 'trend continuation 'signals.Pity about that, because it seemed like everyone was expecting weak GDP numbers later to continue bearish dollar trend.Is this correct? I picked up from earlier posts that you should wait for 1hr confirmation when it comes to RT and RB and that TC signals on 1hr blows the 4hr RT/RB out of the water.
Thanks Philip, your strategy has really taught me to be patient and to stick to the rules of this wonderful strategy.
See charts attached...
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  • #3,833
  • Apr 27, 2007 1:35am Apr 27, 2007 1:35am
You're absolutely right doji star, I was SO keen on gbpusd even as late as an hour ago, but then it did a 180 and not only did the 1hr give a tc, but the 4hr didn't even form a rb after all. It also closed below 89ma which sent alarm bells. As for chf I didn't like the r:r
  • #3,834
  • Edited 2:12am Apr 27, 2007 2:01am | Edited 2:12am
Hi all,

When MACD gave a RB at 4 GMT on GBP/USD, it was a beatiful one. 1 hr did not show TC. It was very tempting.
I took it, and my s/l was blown out !

After a sharp drop, it was a consolidation time. A lot of tension was expected b4 US news. Should have waited b4 jumped in. Phillip once mentioned this in his "Consolidation Management". He is really a experienced wise guy.
  • #3,835
  • Apr 27, 2007 4:09am Apr 27, 2007 4:09am
After the retrace up (and then some) from my previous trade, usdcad is now showing a small RT/VT, combined with an engulfing bearish bar. According to Phillip's method, are we supposed to read this RT as a sort of bearish trend continuation signal? Any reasons not to go short upon the next bar (assuming the current shape more or less holds)? Help would be appreciated.

Update on usd/jpy: moves S/L to breakeven as soon as I got to +20 pips. Was planning on taking partial profit @ +25 but I missed the cut by a single pip Oh well, at least I'm assured against a loss. I'm letting it ride.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,836
  • Apr 27, 2007 5:11am Apr 27, 2007 5:11am
Quoting haniam
EU is actually on a major pivot level being 1.3580. Looking at the daily charts, we have an evening star and this is bearish. H1 shows a drop, then a chanel trading suggesting a second drop if level broken targetting 1.3540.

H4 MACD is not telling a lot yet. Kind of a RT, but under .0015 level, so a TC can be as well.

So my strategy would be to go long around 1.3590 with a stop reverse under 1.3580, first target up 1.3620, adding to position if broken second target 1.3665 for a second all hi time test. Will reverse then if this level holds.

Else, if 1.3580 is broken, I go short targetting 1.3540 first.

In four words, watch for 1.3580 level

Hani
H4 MACD for EU has given a TC signal to go long at 1.3614 confirmed by H1
ttying to do a new test of highs as mentioned previously. Adding to position for long
  • #3,837
  • Apr 27, 2007 6:23am Apr 27, 2007 6:23am
ok, so I got stopped out of usdjpy @ breakeven because I moved S/L to BE too quickly.

I skipped on usd/cad short and instead went with eurusd long at 0800 hours @ 1.3616. Looks good so far. Took partial profit @ +20 pips, and hoping to hit 1.3650 or thereabouts with the remainder..

I was also keen on entering gbpusd long at the same time as eurusd, but didn't enter it in part because the setup looked kind of similar to eurusd, and I felt as if I'd be essentially "doubling" my risk.

Is this feeling warranted? Anyone else feel that way sometimes when trading usd pairs or am I the only one? I mean, I could have taken on eurusd long, audusd long, and gbpusd long all at the same time because the charts were similar in many ways, but the success of all those trades revolves largely around usd going down in value...so I just chose one that looked safest and ran with it.

Of course, right now all of the above are profiting bigtime...
  • #3,838
  • Edited 7:15am Apr 27, 2007 6:47am | Edited 7:15am
Hi. I am back online. My mobile account had a monthly limit which was hit and my account frozen. I asked it to be unfrozen and it looks like they have flown people in from Alaska to get it unfrozen as it took 2 days.
Meanwhile I had a EurUsd short 25/04/2005 20:05 @ 1.3638 with SL 1.3665 and TP 1.3610. I only now discovered that the deal was good. Took the 12:00 MACD long @ 1.3614 SL 1.3580 TP 1.3650. Have move SL to 1.3625 as I intend to take some profit off the table if it turns around. Entered purely on MACD signal. Could not follow any news. I only went online again at 12:00.
Will chat later
  • #3,839
  • Edited 8:37am Apr 27, 2007 6:54am | Edited 8:37am
Hi all,

I remembered that Phillip once wrote about this tail expected at strong s/r line.

I should have expected this s/l hunting. See the close of the candle is nicely back above 89sma.

After confirming this tail, I should have gone long.
Attached Image
  • #3,840
  • Apr 27, 2007 6:56am Apr 27, 2007 6:56am
Quoting haniam
H4 MACD for EU has given a TC signal to go long at 1.3614 confirmed by H1
ttying to do a new test of highs as mentioned previously. Adding to position for long
Closed first postion @ 1.3640 for + 50 pips as we are on R1 and close to the news.
Moving SL of second postion to 1.3625, just under M3 level.
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