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MA Crossover System that works for me

  • #181
  • Dec 19, 2022 12:52am Dec 19, 2022 12:52am
After a pullback to the 21 EMA on the daily chart (a refresh) and then a break below the EMAs, it seemed like a good time to look for a trade on H4. The recent crossover on H4 happened earlier today and that was all I needed. I reviewed the safety checks and all seems good.
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  • #182
  • Dec 19, 2022 2:41am Dec 19, 2022 2:41am
Thanks for the info and I will be following this trade with interest as I have been following your idea for a few weeks now and it is nice and simple and suits my beginners style of trading.
  • #183
  • Edited 7:06am Dec 19, 2022 6:52am | Edited 7:06am
Quoting alanh59
Thanks for the info and I will be following this trade with interest as I have been following your idea for a few weeks now and it is nice and simple and suits my beginners style of trading.
Thank you. Observe, by all means, but don't follow blindly - this business has a way of making most of us feel like beginners!

Look at the same USDJPY trade from the previous post. Now that some time has passed I have noticed that we have an obvious bullish channel in place - the classic HH and HL pattern. How did I not notice this? Hopefully the current leg will continue down to the lower channel boundary. I must spend more time searching for such patterns before pulling the trigger.

It's what walvekarraje was saying just a few posts ago: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post14259732
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  • #184
  • Dec 19, 2022 6:42pm Dec 19, 2022 6:42pm
Sell gold target 1777
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Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #185
  • Dec 20, 2022 1:57am Dec 20, 2022 1:57am
We all knew this was coming, right? Which is why I say that luck has a lot to do with trading success. All we can do is play the probabilities and be in the right place when it happens.

Something else that this highlights is the placement of stops. My trade was stopped out, but had I placed my stop above the actual swing point (which would then have been above the upper boundary of the channel) it would have survived. But then the amount of risk would have been too much, so the trade would not have been viable. Nobody said that trading would be easy (well, they did, but they were lying).

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  • #186
  • Dec 20, 2022 2:34am Dec 20, 2022 2:34am
Had two sell trades on my demo account on USD/JPY and turned out very well bagging 150 pips, wish everything went this well!
  • #187
  • Dec 20, 2022 7:15am Dec 20, 2022 7:15am
Quoting alanh59
Had two sell trades on my demo account on USD/JPY and turned out very well bagging 150 pips, wish everything went this well!
Well done. Could you tell us how you did this, your strategy etc?

And yes, sometimes it's so easy, others you do everything right and it doesn't work out. This trade is one that just worked (so far). I'll soon move my stop to B/E.

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  • #188
  • Edited 10:04am Dec 20, 2022 9:29am | Edited 10:04am
Sorry should have said 258 pips. Entered two trades after the 8 EMA crossed below 21 EMA in quite a strong downtrend and below the moving average on my Bollinger Bands and also the 200 EMA and all the news pointed to the Yen rising against the dollar. Entered one trade at 13709 with a conservative stop at 13610 and after observing a sharp downtrend entered a second trade at 13600 with a stop at 13442 just above my support line at 13429. Then went to bed and hoped for the best

Also been experimenting with RSI set at 14 50 50 and it had gone below the 50 at the same time into a downward trend.

As they say the rest is history, pity it was on my demo account but hopefully building to bigger and better things in the future once I gain more knowledge and experience.
  • #189
  • Dec 20, 2022 12:46pm Dec 20, 2022 12:46pm
Quoting alanh59
Sorry should have said 258 pips. Entered two trades after the 8 EMA crossed below 21 EMA in quite a strong downtrend and below the moving average on my Bollinger Bands and also the 200 EMA and all the news pointed to the Yen rising against the dollar. Entered one trade at 13709 with a conservative stop at 13610 and after observing a sharp downtrend entered a second trade at 13600 with a stop at 13442 just above my support line at 13429. Then went to bed and hoped for the best Also been experimenting with RSI set at 14 50 50 and it had...
This might just be my bias, but I believe it is generally sound advice to suggest that you try to doing without indicators like RSI, MACD, CCI and so on. And the millions of others like them out there that all seem like greener pastures, but usually (in my experience) turn out to be a disapointment.

What I suggest you do is to look back for trade setups that match your criteria. Then remove RSI and see if it makes any difference at all. I'm prepared to stick my neck out and say that you'll find you could have made the same trades equally confidently if the indicator had not been there. It's like learning to ride a bicycle - at first those fairy wheels seem essential, but they become a hindrance pretty quickly. Let me know how it goes!
  • #190
  • Dec 20, 2022 9:50pm Dec 20, 2022 9:50pm
EurNzd EMAs crossed. Short position opened & running with some green pips.

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Trade safe.
  • #191
  • Dec 20, 2022 9:59pm Dec 20, 2022 9:59pm
Gold trade hit TP.

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Trade safe, it's holiday period.
  • #192
  • Edited 4:04am Dec 21, 2022 2:57am | Edited 4:04am
Quoting AlistairC
{quote} Well done. Could you tell us how you did this, your strategy etc? And yes, sometimes it's so easy, others you do everything right and it doesn't work out. This trade is one that just worked (so far). I'll soon move my stop to B/E. {image}
Instead of moving down a bit more so I could move to B/E, it has gone into consolidation mode. I wasn't too concerned about it because the overall price action structure is still valid and looks strong. My hope is that this one will explode out of that consolidation during today (downwards, of course!).
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  • #193
  • Edited 11:40am Dec 21, 2022 10:03am | Edited 11:40am
Do you still think this will carry on a downward trend as it has had a rise of around 48 pips today but appears at this moment in time to have stalled around 9140 and the 8 EMA has turned into an uptrend on the H4 chart

Update now around 9112 so going down nicely
  • #194
  • Dec 21, 2022 12:15pm Dec 21, 2022 12:15pm
Quoting alanh59
Do you still think this will carry on a downward trend as it has had a rise of around 48 pips today but appears at this moment in time to have stalled around 9140 and the 8 EMA has turned into an uptrend on the H4 chart Update now around 9112 so going down nicely
Yes, I was a bit concerned, even though most things point to the short trade continuing. So I took "evasive action" by closing 25% of my lot size and later 25% of the remaining lot size, so that left me with enough to win back those losses if the trade went well and a smallish loss if it went badly.

The daily chart hasn't turned bearish yet but that PA at the top is a fairly sure sign of a reversal in progress.

And if you take a step back and look at the H4 chart as if there was no trade running, no emotional attachment at all, then what you see is a normal little spike above the 21 EMA, happens every day. So, while I decided to reduce some of my risk, I also knew I should trust the system and it does seem to be sorting itself out.
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  • #195
  • Dec 21, 2022 12:23pm Dec 21, 2022 12:23pm
The confidence I expressed for AUDCAD was based on an actually bullish D1 chart that was showing "fairly sure signs" of a reversal. Isn't it better to be very sure?

Here's an example of what I mean. A short trade on H4 anywhere along that dotted line would have worked really well. The same dotted line on the daily chart shows why - the reversal was done and dusted and it was all downhill from there. That's the ideal.

My new year's resolution is to be more patient and to wait for price action that looks like this.
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  • #196
  • Dec 21, 2022 1:57pm Dec 21, 2022 1:57pm
I agree with what you are saying reference AUD/CAD and the D1 chart shows quite a strong downtrend from a high of around 9320 over the last week and I will continue to watch and observe.

Just wondered how you manage to monitor and find the pairs which cross the 8/21 EMAs and do you use any sort of system to keep an eye on them all.

Thanks for all of your help and still in the beginner stages and trying to learn as much as possible as running my trades on a demo account at the moment.
  • #197
  • Dec 21, 2022 5:49pm Dec 21, 2022 5:49pm
Quoting alanh59
Just wondered how you manage to monitor and find the pairs which cross the 8/21 EMAs
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File Type: ex4 MTF MA Multi Pair Dashboard.ex4   68 KB | 338 downloads


use this as a top down analysis tool... eg.1) CADCHF.... M15 to MN are in down trend except H1. so look for crossover/ bearish pattern on H1 to enter short.

dont use this as a standalone tool. you still need to consider other basic criteria of technical analysis.... support/resistance, trendline breaks, flags. overbought/oversold, etc .
  • #198
  • Dec 21, 2022 10:15pm Dec 21, 2022 10:15pm
Greetings,

The most important trading lesson I've learned would probably be to FOLLOW TRADING RULES!

There have been a lot of times when I went ahead of my system and ended up with losses. I entered the trade even before officially meeting my entry signals because I was confident that price would move the way I was expecting it to.

I’m learning more about patience in trading, meaning to wait for an actual signal–not just jumping in because ¨something¨ is gonna happen.

Patiently awaiting valid signal from WTI.


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Trade safe.
  • #199
  • Dec 21, 2022 10:17pm Dec 21, 2022 10:17pm
AudCad buy trade running with some green pips

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  • #200
  • Edited 1:29am Dec 22, 2022 12:23am | Edited 1:29am
Quoting AlistairC
This is the sequence that I usually follow when deciding to place a trade. In my case H4 is the trading time-frame and D1 shows the dominant trend. On the H4 charts: Is there a new trend after a crossover (= first leg) or a second or perhaps even a third leg starting? (This also means to avoid "old" trends unless PA tells you otherwise). Are the recent bars (i) on the "trend side" of the EMAs? (ii) mostly short (iii) fairly close to the EMAs (very little or no open space between bars and EMAs)? Is there any S/R obstruction? I don't mind a consolidation...
Quoting alanh59
Just wondered how you manage to monitor and find the pairs which cross the 8/21 EMAs and do you use any sort of system to keep an eye on them all.
Hi alanh59, I have quoted my recent post where I outlined the sequence I usually follow. That is how I monitor the many charts I have open - one by one at the time of H4 candle closes. It doesn't take long as, in most cases, a quick glance is usually enough to reject most of them. Time is spent on the few that seem to meet the requirements outlined in the sequence. And even then, once I have had a closer look, I reject most of those too.

Where I am (UTC+2) it means my main bit of work is at 8 am, the next candle close is at 12 noon, then 4 pm (this is in my summer - in the southern winter these times shift 1 hour earlier). I am no longer using a Dashboard trend indicator such as the OGT one I posted near the beginning of this thread. The only indicators I use are the MAs, with a quick flip up to the HTFs, mainly the daily, to see how that looks. If the trends on H4 and D1 are aligned, and the safety checks are clear, then there is likely no reason not to pull the trigger.

As I have said previously, the best indicator is your eyes and the best trading tool is the bit between your ears.
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