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Volman meets Burke or My journey with PA

  • #1,241
  • Dec 14, 2022 11:21am Dec 14, 2022 11:21am
Quoting spzd
It works good on the GJ. GJ M15 {image}
Great stuff Mark - love the boxes
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #1,242
  • Dec 14, 2022 2:49pm Dec 14, 2022 2:49pm
Quoting spzd
It works good on the GJ. GJ M15 {image}
Mark
Look at sp500 around 7pm ( UK time) -price crashed from above the New York Open line back down to it. Albeit the drop was savage ( helped by Powell ?), it is interesting that it did so again ( moves away from open line then returns to it). A habit do you think ?
Apologies for no chart.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #1,243
  • Dec 15, 2022 8:17am Dec 15, 2022 8:17am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Mark Look at sp500 around 7pm ( UK time) -price crashed from above the New York Open line back down to it. Albeit the drop was savage ( helped by Powell ?), it is interesting that it did so again ( moves away from open line then returns to it). A habit do you think ? Apologies for no chart.
I would argue that price stayed within it's boundaries and acted as one would expect it to.

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I traded none of this as my discount broker increased margins to $200/contract Tuesday evening.
Protecting from the evils of Fed volitility.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,244
  • Dec 15, 2022 8:26am Dec 15, 2022 8:26am
This is an interesting video. He puts annotations on as the market moves. Have to go to youtube to watch it???

Inserted Video
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,245
  • Dec 15, 2022 11:38am Dec 15, 2022 11:38am
Quoting spzd
This is an interesting video. He puts annotations on as the market moves. Have to go to youtube to watch it??? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXut...erCircleTrader
This young lady, with the approval of ICT, provides videos that summarises many of the ICT videos. Might be of interest. Vids 4;5;and 6 dwell on FVGaps.
The way price is described as taking out a high, then breaking market structure before returning to form a FVGap, reminds me a little of Stacey Burkes Pevious high type stuff.

Inserted Video
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #1,246
  • Dec 15, 2022 12:32pm Dec 15, 2022 12:32pm
Seems everyone is going for the FVG. I can see the importance. Question is: what time frame gets the priority for any given FVG? Then depending upon the size of the FVG, where does one enter? Plus the fact I have seen many FVGs fail. Not to disparage the FVG. I place it more in the category of the open. Yes, it is and can be important. No, I do not design my entire method around it. Truth be told, I don't use FVGs.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,247
  • Dec 15, 2022 1:31pm Dec 15, 2022 1:31pm
Other than some MAs, what I do is still what I set out to do. Maybe not as pure as I had imagined. As I have said, the MAs are what I learned awhile back and they are hard to discard. They also help me.

The MAs I use are not any big secret. They are not even the result of massive testing to optimize them. For better or worse they are an arbitrary decision. I have recently switched the base MA to the period Volman uses, the 25-ema. I use the typical price of (H+L+C)/3. From this one MA I derive the higher TF MAs. Example: if my base chart is the 5-minute then the base MA would be the 25-ema. Times 3 to get the M15 ema which has a value of 75. Times it by 12 to get the hour. That is my max TF and is used for reference only. On the hourly TF I also have a 100-sma and a 200-sma. I then added 2 hull MAs. A base hull of 16 periods. The other is based off the base TF either 5-minute - indices or 15-minute - currencies. A brief description of what use I get from the hull is here https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post14252724

Mostly I use the MAs to show short term direction. They also provide dynamic S/R. Take these properties and add them to the static levels and, for me, the result is a bit more robust method.

I will get into the hull MAs next. Using the kind of cyclic behavior, I have created a method to trade indices during the Asian session. The Asian session for me is from 1800 CST (KC area Chicago time) and it can extend to the start of the London session.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,248
  • Dec 15, 2022 1:47pm Dec 15, 2022 1:47pm
1800 CST is 0000 GMT
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,250
  • Dec 15, 2022 2:04pm Dec 15, 2022 2:04pm
Quoting spzd
Other than some MAs, what I do is still what I set out to do. Maybe not as pure as I had imagined. As I have said, the MAs are what I learned awhile back and they are hard to discard. They also help me. The MAs I use are not any big secret. They are not even the result of massive testing to optimize them. For better or worse they are an arbitrary decision. I have recently switched the base MA to the period Volman uses, the 25-ema. I use the typical price of (H+L+C)/3. From this one MA I derive the higher TF MAs. Example: if my base chart is the...
I am using the 9, 20 and 72 based on a similar history that you mention ... word for word... learned 12 years ago and hard to discard. Some variations since then: sma , ema , lwma . Currently experimenting with a trigger of a single candle push that moves from one side of two ma's and closes on the opposite side. 15m
  • #1,251
  • Dec 15, 2022 2:12pm Dec 15, 2022 2:12pm
Quoting Lou
{quote} I am using the 9, 20 and 72 based on a similar history that you mention ... word for word... learned 12 years ago and hard to discard. Some variations since then: sma , ema , lwma . Currently experimenting with a trigger of a single candle push that moves from one side of two ma's and closes on the opposite side. 15m
What is kinda cool once you have a deeper understanding of the MAs, is I could take your parameters and make it work.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,252
  • Dec 15, 2022 2:48pm Dec 15, 2022 2:48pm
The first premise with what I am doing is that the one hour period from 0000 GMT to 0100 GMT will give either a high, a low, or both until the next session. This, being the Asian session and the start of the trading day, this also establishes the initial high or low for the day.

This is a concept mentioned in a few places. I give the credit to @blueesteele Thanks Kev

If you are like me (And I think my way is arguably the best way - total immersion. It can start to weigh on you though. Hopefully by then you start to find a niche or two.) you do the deep dive. I have looked at months upon months of the Asian time period. It started with the boxes. And with few exceptions, the first premise is spot on.

Just this information alone during any session will make a huge difference. An example is during the US session, I will let the hour complete. 0930 to 1030 EST. I have been doing this with both forex and indices.

The second premise is that you do need to look at price levels in a grid manner. Especially the BRN 00 and the RN 50 levels. An example here is the GU for Thursday 12.15.2022. As you can clearly see, price moves in sections.

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These two premises should be the backbone of any method/system.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,253
  • Dec 15, 2022 2:51pm Dec 15, 2022 2:51pm
I don't have the red data times marked. So, NO you can't get all those pips. Unless you were short from the start and that is not how I trade. In and out. The less time in the market the better things are.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,254
  • Dec 15, 2022 2:59pm Dec 15, 2022 2:59pm
Quoting spzd
Seems everyone is going for the FVG. I can see the importance. Question is: what time frame gets the priority for any given FVG? Then depending upon the size of the FVG, where does one enter? Plus the fact I have seen many FVGs fail. Not to disparage the FVG. I place it more in the category of the open. Yes, it is and can be important. No, I do not design my entire method around it. Truth be told, I don't use FVGs.
Don't dive into researching FVGaps unless you feel the need or interest. If you have a core strategy just chug along with that and research things that interest you ,that you feel might tighten up your present approach as you seem to be doing now.
I am, sadly, intrigued with the idea of FVGaps influence on price action, but keep my core approach simple -to things that I can apply to price before session opening times. This means I have only to react to price rather than draw squiggles as the session meanders along. Behind the scenes I look at things like fvgaps to see if they tighten up my trading. I suppose the trick is to have things in place before markets open. If FVGaps work ( more importantly ,if I get to understand them) then one should eventually see them forming, with practice, rather than drawing lines all over the place beforehand during sessions. If I get to grasp the theory them testing and observation is required to make them second nature. So, if you are not overly excited about them then I would spend time on things that really excite you in analysing price action. My spelling is bollox late at night
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #1,255
  • Dec 15, 2022 3:04pm Dec 15, 2022 3:04pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Don't dive into researching FVGaps unless you feel the need or interest. If you have a core strategy just chug along with that and research things that interest you ,that you feel might tighten up your present approach as you seem to be doing now. I am, sadly, intrigued with the idea of FVGaps influence on price action, but keep my core approach simple -to things that I can apply to price before session opening times. This means I have only to react to price rather than draw squiggles as the session meanders along. Behind the scenes I look...
All is good. I do have too much of an attraction to something like the FVG. I treat it the way I do now so I don't make that deep dive. Especially now and you will see in the next few posts. I do believe I am onto something ...
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,256
  • Dec 15, 2022 3:10pm Dec 15, 2022 3:10pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Don't dive into researching FVGaps unless you feel the need or interest. If you have a core strategy just chug along with that and research things that interest you ,that you feel might tighten up your present approach as you seem to be doing now. I am, sadly, intrigued with the idea of FVGaps influence on price action, but keep my core approach simple -to things that I can apply to price before session opening times. This means I have only to react to price rather than draw squiggles as the session meanders along. Behind the scenes I look...
Not sure if you can id a FVG before all the info is in. It takes three bars for a FVG to form. The unknown nature of price movement prevents you from saying yes or no until that 3rd bar closes.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,257
  • Dec 15, 2022 3:31pm Dec 15, 2022 3:31pm
This system/method whatever you want to call it and that I am teasing the hell out of now, is the result of my wanting to trade indices during the Asian session. Movement is usually slower much less dramatic and there is sufficient volume to cover my one or two contracts. Any more than that I will need to research time of sales. Yeah, I know volume. In this case it was to ensure that I could trade without any undo issues from lack of volume. I started with the MES - SP500. I was not overly pleased as the moves tended to be on the narrow side most of the session. Then I had the duh moment.

Take a look at the Nasdaq. MNQ.

My 5 minute data goes back to April of this year. Started taking screen shots of all the three sessions. That is a lot of screen shots. 3 per day, five days a week.

Guess what?

Yup. It's all the same. You get fairly predictable moves with the occasional red data blip to screw everything up.

The advantage of trading the MNQ is during Asia is the range is often around 60 points high to low for the session. Even Monday - Sunday evening for me - is usually large enough to trade a contract.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,258
  • Dec 16, 2022 10:30pm Dec 16, 2022 10:30pm
In SB's latest video Best Trading Setups Playbook Update he uses the term 'Stalking the Markets' . I like that idea.
  • #1,259
  • Dec 17, 2022 7:11am Dec 17, 2022 7:11am
Quoting Lou
In SB's latest video Best Trading Setups Playbook Update he uses the term 'Stalking the Markets' . I like that idea.
ICT refers to it as being a sniper. Others have used this analogy. I prefer to look at it all as an art form. Perhaps a dance, complex yes, choreographed to its finest.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,260
  • Dec 18, 2022 9:53am Dec 18, 2022 9:53am
Before going forward with more premises, which will cause some to cringe (maybe just a tiny bit), I am going to discuss a few theories of moving averages. Along with a couple other things. These are based on my personal experience learning and half ass using a moving average system. then doing tweaks over time and I think I have something that is viable. Even though that was not a successful endeavor money wise, it was an excellent learning process and resulted in what may be some out of the box thoughts about moving averages.

Before I dive in, I will mention briefly some of my philosophy toward trading. An understanding comes from a prior tag line "Nearly everything they have told you is lies". I believe that about nearly anything. All it takes is a moment of honest observation and thought and you will likely agree. I don't bother with looking at larger time frames past history. For me I have all I need on the chart. Not to say an occasional peak at the bigger picture is not helpful, but I could care less what the high or low or open or close on any arbitrary day in the past is.

Another thing I do not bother too much with, other than knowing when the events occur is fundamentals. I see this as mostly wrapped up in a RED data release that may or may not move the market. No matter, I stay away. Which is to say I am flat at those times. Other than that, I pay little heed to the fundies because I know it is all BS also. An example is what really caused all this inflation. Believe me when I say it is not demand driven.

Lastly is the entire where are the orders at thing. Yes, it is a valid way to look for areas to enter. Just too much work from my point of view. Also, I have seen many who enter this way suffer from some DD. Likely they mis-timed and had to wait for the ALGO to grind through a larger area of orders. And there is, to me, the weakness of doing this. Orders are everywhere. Perhaps bigger orders are at the areas folks look at. Problem there is bigger orders take longer to fill. And it goes on and on. Since my trade size is not enough to be concerned about in a liquid market I do not need to go through the other exercises of "where are the orders". Besides that would require too much zooming out of the charts and I already dismissed that.

Not to disparage any who use methods I do not. More power to you and all success you can get. My method requires none of the above and I think it will be very viable. It is a hybrid of a moving average cross - oh heaven forbid not that - well, yes that. And as much price action as I can make use of. It is fairly simple. It should work to some degree on any market. I will be giving it a go on the MNQ- micro e-mini Nasdaq - and maybe on the GBP_JPY. I may even incorporate an extended prop challenge for the GJ.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
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