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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #3,781
  • Apr 25, 2007 9:48pm Apr 25, 2007 9:48pm
Looks like USDCAD is in the process of forming a RB...too early to know for sure but that horizontal line is holding up as support so far.

In the meantime, how about AUDUSD? Perhaps a TC upwards in the works..
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  • #3,782
  • Apr 25, 2007 10:54pm Apr 25, 2007 10:54pm
Quoting weghio
Hello folks, Phillip, great thread and happy to be a part of it.

Looks like a RB might be on the way soon for usdcad as shown here...
weghio,

You might get some pips here, but look at the previous RBs in the last month for USDCAD and how well they did... not much promise in such a strong downtrend... might be better to wait for a short up correction and then hit the next down move...?
  • #3,783
  • Apr 25, 2007 11:08pm Apr 25, 2007 11:08pm
Quoting weghio
And finally the daily graph...there's a red horizontal line I've drawn that seems to indicate some sort of long-term S/R levels around this area which seems to support the 4hr RB if it comes. I think I'll keep watching and see what the MACD says in 30 minutes or so.

Comments please would be appreciated..
Again, looking at your chart doesn't really show me anything--yes, it's a line, but where are your s/r levels you've identified? It's in the region of support around may/june of 2006, but 1.0970 was the level there, and I don't see any significant R levels that would now serve as S levels, so I'm not sure this is a significant upturn in the process. Of course, it could be--the way trades are going for me, I wouldn't listen to me :-) hehe
  • #3,784
  • Apr 26, 2007 12:43am Apr 26, 2007 12:43am
As others have said, I think this pair is about to take a quick dip. Data to support my beliefs:

1) 4-hr RT almost formed
2) 4-hr Top of trendline hit
3) 4-hr Stochastic crossover in the works
4) 1-hr MACD and stochastic divergence (thought stoc on 1-hr does not support going short)
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  • #3,785
  • Apr 26, 2007 2:38am Apr 26, 2007 2:38am
Wow, I just woke up from my nap....and It's like I've gone to contra-trend trading world! . Everyone of the trades planned on the last 2 pages go against price position in relation to 89....which is fine...but TP's are so aggressive. Remember shoot for 15 -20 on contra trade and position yourself for larger move by giving yourself the opportunity to be in the move (but protect yourself by moving to BE).....

Want to make a few comments re: GBPJPY...Why in the world was the short taken? Price was sitting right on the 89 on the hourly w/ the 200 jumbled up in it....4 hours ago it started moving away from the 89 up..& the 4 hour chart has the 21 & 8 10 pips apart...w/price closing above support and 21 for the last 48 hours! (& the Kiwi rate dec. should help underpin the carry trade from a fundamental position, until rate dec. from Japan.)...& My MACD said stay away (well, you saw earlier posts to Hard1Head1). This was Super Aggressive....almost to the point of gambling . Not even a price move to "fade" just for the heck of it! (Sorry....)

The Aussie: My chart is just forming a RT, but the current candle is still open. The position of price to the MA is the same as above...we had price bounce off the 21. Upper Res. is 75 pips above (give or take) and price bounced off a daily up TL yesterday....At least this pair has some room to fall when it decides to go . My MACD is smaller than .0015 reading for the whole RT that may be forming now.

The UsdCad: Wow, does that baby have room to move up, eh? Just be aware that it really likes to do the Fakey...Form a beautiful RB and later, after you enter and North America comes on line...Boom! TC! Just remember to trade defensively as well as aggressively (like Aussie...It's got room to run before hitting MA's...especially the 89!).

I still like the Eur/JPY short (entered sooner than I would have...but, hey...that's what makes us all unique traders!)...The MACD level was my only concern and that price hadn't closed below my support level (I use closing w/MACD as entry)...Again the MA's make profit targets reasonable....even if they are aggressive.

I guess my comments/questions are: Is there provisions in the trading plans for these contra trades to take profit early and maybe move to BE? or is it all or nothing (which is fine too, if that is the plan and you are OK w/a loss, should it occur).

Can you tell...I don't have any positions open right now...? I was long earlier today Swissie...but I took that at 1.2005 and had limit set for 1.2045 (since I would be gone and couldn't monitor, I shot for between 8 & 21). Since then, MACD supports long, but I'd like to see price move through 21...instead of closing below it.

No news out worth noting from US side....who knows what this market will do?

Happy Trading!
  • #3,786
  • Apr 26, 2007 2:40am Apr 26, 2007 2:40am
Hard1Head1...

If you got involved in the GBPJPY trade...I'm kicking you!!!!

D!
  • #3,787
  • Apr 26, 2007 4:07am Apr 26, 2007 4:07am
Quoting JoshDance
As others have said, I think this pair is about to take a quick dip. Data to support my beliefs:

1) 4-hr RT almost formed
2) 4-hr Top of trendline hit
3) 4-hr Stochastic crossover in the works
4) 1-hr MACD and stochastic divergence (thought stoc on 1-hr does not support going short)
And, against all of this, the price shoots up, and I'm stopped out. Geez, I just can't catch a break...
  • #3,788
  • Apr 26, 2007 4:14am Apr 26, 2007 4:14am
Quoting JoshDance
And, against all of this, the price shoots up, and I'm stopped out. Geez, I just can't catch a break...
Hi Josh,

EJ shorting was a countertrend trade so the stop out is expected. But you could have reentered in a trade with the trend as MACD gave a TC signal @ 161.93 and would have collected 50 pips for now, making up your losses and more

Good luck for next time.

Hani
  • #3,789
  • Apr 26, 2007 4:47am Apr 26, 2007 4:47am
I ended up entering long the USDCAD...bagged a few pips and letting the rest ride for now. There is confluence between the 21MA and the trendline I've drawn below so I'll probably take off the remaining profit if it gets there.

Even though CAD has been in a strong downtrend for a while, I like this one because

1) nice U-shape, not an aggressive turnaround
2) length of MACD
3) the horizontal support level and the tiny bars previous to the entry
4) the 1hr chart shows no contrary TC signals
5) the two previous long orange bars came off of 21MA precipitously and seemed like a retrace was in order
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  • #3,790
  • Apr 26, 2007 6:03am Apr 26, 2007 6:03am
Hey Pips,

Of course I did, per YOUR rules. And it is now failing that 237.98 I/T per your rules also. RIGHT!!!!!!!

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

J


J
  • #3,791
  • Apr 26, 2007 6:07am Apr 26, 2007 6:07am
Hey Donna,

NO, I did not take the retrace. How about me............

JIM
  • #3,792
  • Apr 26, 2007 7:15am Apr 26, 2007 7:15am
89----21
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  • #3,793
  • Apr 26, 2007 7:28am Apr 26, 2007 7:28am
sublime: The majority of people here are using MetaTrader4 for their charting.

pips4: Nice info from the inside looking out!

It took a while for the rt on the EURO$ to get moving and there it went, straight to the bank. I was thinking of doing a breakout trade on the USDJPY and forgot all about it....I was 'taken out' last night for drinks because today is my......birthday. I turned 40 today, yikes! I could easily pass for late twenty something. Either way, I've got some obligations for the next few days so I may be here in spirit only and not be posting for a while. I may try to pop in here and there. Lot's of stuff moving right now, hope everyone is banking a few....

Peace out.
  • #3,794
  • Apr 26, 2007 7:46am Apr 26, 2007 7:46am
Quoting Palmer
sublime: The majority of people here are using MetaTrader4 for their charting.

pips4: Nice info from the inside looking out!

It took a while for the rt on the EURO$ to get moving and there it went, straight to the bank. I was thinking of doing a breakout trade on the USDJPY and forgot all about it....I was 'taken out' last night for drinks because today is my......birthday. I turned 40 today, yikes! I could easily pass for late twenty something. Either way, I've got some obligations for the next few days so I may be here in spirit only and not be posting for a while. I may try to pop in here and there. Lot's of stuff moving right now, hope everyone is banking a few....

Peace out.

Hi Palmer,

Happy Birthday to your!!!
  • #3,795
  • Apr 26, 2007 9:21am Apr 26, 2007 9:21am
Hi Tamakras,

You gave us early warning on USD/JPY. Breaking the "shield" requires immence energy.

So I should have prepared. The energy came after very quite asian session out of the blue. It was a suprise hike. I was not prepared.

When the 4 hr candle with arrow closed above 89 sma, I should have gone long. The candle close above 89 sma should have been considered a strong signal.

Now I understand that better planning in advance is essential for better trading.

Always hoping to be a better trader !

Thank you for your info on GBP/CHF. I demotraded only as my broker's spread is 10 pips.

Good trade ahead !
Attached Image
  • #3,796
  • Apr 26, 2007 10:11am Apr 26, 2007 10:11am
Anyone considering this RT?

I think I will go for it, if the candel close below the 89

Comment or suggestions?
Ignacio
  • #3,797
  • Apr 26, 2007 10:12am Apr 26, 2007 10:12am
weghio, congrats on the usd/cad trade! way to go! I was too scared, but you had the guts and pulled it off... woohoo!!
  • #3,798
  • Apr 26, 2007 10:13am Apr 26, 2007 10:13am
Quoting haniam
Hi Josh,

EJ shorting was a countertrend trade so the stop out is expected. But you could have reentered in a trade with the trend as MACD gave a TC signal @ 161.93 and would have collected 50 pips for now, making up your losses and more

Good luck for next time.

Hani
Hani,

Actually, as I said in my post, it was AUDJPY, not EJ--but thanks very much for the advice, I sorely need it :-)

And as it turned out, the darn thing did fall, as did my EURUSD trade that got stopped out earlier... bad side: lost about 40 pips total. Good side: Picked the right trades, and WOULD have made about 60. :-\ :-)
  • #3,799
  • Apr 26, 2007 10:34am Apr 26, 2007 10:34am
Quoting Palmer
sublime: The majority of people here are using MetaTrader4 for their charting.

pips4: Nice info from the inside looking out!

It took a while for the rt on the EURO$ to get moving and there it went, straight to the bank. I was thinking of doing a breakout trade on the USDJPY and forgot all about it....I was 'taken out' last night for drinks because today is my......birthday. I turned 40 today, yikes! I could easily pass for late twenty something. Either way, I've got some obligations for the next few days so I may be here in spirit only and not be posting for a while. I may try to pop in here and there. Lot's of stuff moving right now, hope everyone is banking a few....

Peace out.
Happy birthday Palmer, keep up the great rap. appreciate all your posts
  • #3,800
  • Apr 26, 2007 10:50am Apr 26, 2007 10:50am
Quoting JoshDance
Hani,

Actually, as I said in my post, it was AUDJPY, not EJ--but thanks very much for the advice, I sorely need it :-)

And as it turned out, the darn thing did fall, as did my EURUSD trade that got stopped out earlier... bad side: lost about 40 pips total. Good side: Picked the right trades, and WOULD have made about 60. :-\ :-)
Hi Josh,

We might have missed good chances today...like the one I missed..., but there will be many waiting for us soon.

Let us be better traders !
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