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  • #163,241
  • Dec 14, 2022 7:38am Dec 14, 2022 7:38am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Based on M15, I am temporarily short now (1.0653).. There are hours until FOMC... I don't even bother... *Yes I am aware of that supportive trendline.. but rules are rules.. {image}
Moving SL to breakeven... Zero risk
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #163,242
  • Dec 14, 2022 7:54am Dec 14, 2022 7:54am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Moving SL to breakeven... Zero risk
now it touches 1.06495 and restarts short
  • #163,243
  • Dec 14, 2022 7:55am Dec 14, 2022 7:55am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Based on M15, I am temporarily short now (1.0653).. There are hours until FOMC... I don't even bother... *Yes I am aware of that supportive trendline.. but rules are rules.. {image}
Moving stop to 1.0650... +3 pips locked... (at least I won't get stopped out empty handed if H4 candle close causes volatility)
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #163,244
  • Dec 14, 2022 8:13am Dec 14, 2022 8:13am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Based on M15, I am temporarily short now (1.0653).. There are hours until FOMC... I don't even bother... *Yes I am aware of that supportive trendline.. but rules are rules.. {image}
Closing order here at 1.0638 with +15 pips.. No need to stress it when trading mixed..
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #163,245
  • Dec 14, 2022 8:22am Dec 14, 2022 8:22am
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} already at 1.065 i bought again, profit targets are shown on the chart {image}
waiting for the pump today after the FOMC

Inserted Video
don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #163,246
  • Edited 8:56am Dec 14, 2022 8:37am | Edited 8:56am
Quick Daily Outlook (Projected via upcoming Friday)

Since most of you are waiting for the FOMC turmoil, it wouldn't be a bad idea to check the daily chart while waiting..

  1. Please notice that an expected "pump" would be limited with 1.0704 area.. Anything higher today would be a surprise to me!
  2. My nearest support on this timeframe sits around 1.0618, which to me is the potential breakout level from the rising wedge! If that level breaks its time for us to hug and dance with bears like my Russian fellows do.
  3. Overall, I will continue trading based on smaller timeframes like the M30 or M15, but as always, inside the hour of FOMC I stop trading and just watch! Crazy things can happen and it is wise to stay in safe haven.
  4. One very important bottleneck for bulls sits at 1.0656.. No matter if you are bullish or bearish, please watch that area too!

I hope it helps

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-D1.png Size: 22 KB
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #163,247
  • Dec 14, 2022 9:00am Dec 14, 2022 9:00am
Ata I see wave 5 on m15 check
  • #163,248
  • Dec 14, 2022 9:06am Dec 14, 2022 9:06am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 19 KB
here is the chart
  • #163,249
  • Dec 14, 2022 9:12am Dec 14, 2022 9:12am
Quoting Enagy
{image}here is the chart
Just be careful... This rise could also be a wave 2 of 5 waves down...
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #163,250
  • Dec 14, 2022 9:19am Dec 14, 2022 9:19am
  • #163,251
  • Dec 14, 2022 10:04am Dec 14, 2022 10:04am
no bull yet and tried to hold having d top and so retest d top level if t top or new bull first . anyway pa continues up still and in strong bull set up at this top.m1 pa little modified but ok to restart early bull if next , or little later . faster pa then . lets see
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM5.png Size: 15 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM1.png Size: 18 KB
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #163,252
  • Dec 14, 2022 10:34am Dec 14, 2022 10:34am
Hello,
May I ask this question:
what's assumed to happen if Fed rate change
a) > 0.5%
b) < 0.5%

If this question does not long belong here then let me know and I might del. it
  • #163,253
  • Dec 14, 2022 10:45am Dec 14, 2022 10:45am
Quoting maybe8
Hello, May I ask this question: what's assumed to happen if Fed rate change a) > 0.5% b) < 0.5% If this question does not long belong here then let me know and I might del. it
Hi,

The market is factoring in a 50 basis point increase, and there's an assumed 75 basis point expectation for early next year. Today won't be as much about the rate, but more about how long the Fed intend to keep increasing the interest rates. If there's no clear sign of a pivot today, the dollar will remain stubborn into the new year.

Guy
  • #163,254
  • Dec 14, 2022 11:01am Dec 14, 2022 11:01am
Quoting maybe8
Hello, May I ask this question: what's assumed to happen if Fed rate change a) > 0.5% b) < 0.5% If this question does not long belong here then let me know and I might del. it
None knows but what the market thinks is that its going to be a 0.50% hike and if that fail to meet the expectations then more volatility expected.

0.75% percent would mean that the FED will have to do more to fight inflation and EURUSD will drop more but if it hikes only 0.25% then it should fly!

I believe 0.50% too and I wait to see choppy trading and first I think that the EU should go lower to take all the buy orders and then come back to test the range again.

Also anything might happen so it is good to stay out until the market decide one direction.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #163,255
  • Dec 14, 2022 11:19am Dec 14, 2022 11:19am
Quoting maybe8
Hello, May I ask this question: what's assumed to happen if Fed rate change a) > 0.5% b) < 0.5% If this question does not long belong here then let me know and I might del. it
Haven't Posted this week, but this is a great question!

One thing to remember is that inflation has only come down ~0.6% in 9 months. Target rate of 2% from the Fed and we are at 7.1% here in the US.

The Markets have all been responding like a child that has found his daddies drug stash.

My favorite statement I've heard so far on the subject is -

"The inflation rate is like a child telling his parents he is going to fail all of his courses, and when the report card comes, he failed all courses but one. In the course he didn't fail he got a D-. His farther was so excited he was like, Well we better run out and buy you that Porche911! GOOD JOB SON! While his mother grounds his ass."

Jerome Powell is the mother. The Markets are the Dad. There will be a huge exited swing, and while Powell speaks there will be a giant swing in the opposite direction. The dust will have to settle and typically with the news digested properly, the market will take it's newly adopted direction.

The question is, What will Powell Say? Everyone knows it will .50% or even .75%, but like Ata said... Safe haven is best play because his words about future expectations will expand gains or retrace them entirely. Fortunes can be lost based on his words.

I will be sitting this out until probably a hour or two after Powell is done speaking.

Be careful all!
  • #163,256
  • Dec 14, 2022 11:24am Dec 14, 2022 11:24am
Quoting mesohi
{quote} Haven't Posted this week, but this is a great question! One thing to remember is that inflation has only come down ~0.6% in 9 months. Target rate of 2% from the Fed and we are at 7.1% here in the US. The Markets have all been responding like a child that has found his daddies drug stash. My favorite statement I've heard so far on the subject is - "The inflation rate is like a child telling his parents he is going to fail all of his courses, and when the report card comes, he failed all courses but one. In the course he didn't fail he got...
Let's keep it interesting, and throw year-end flow into that mix...
  • #163,257
  • Dec 14, 2022 11:40am Dec 14, 2022 11:40am
Price started drifting meaninglessly... I stay out until FOMC and after effect has settled...
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #163,258
  • Dec 14, 2022 12:29pm Dec 14, 2022 12:29pm
Thanks all to share their view on the Fed rate change!
I think we all agree it will be choppy in a couple of minutes and best is to stay out for a while.
All the best to you !
  • #163,259
  • Dec 14, 2022 12:36pm Dec 14, 2022 12:36pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Price started drifting meaninglessly... I stay out until FOMC and after effect has settled...
Would you think a good idea to do short at current level of E/U 1.0665 5 minute before as I believe that rate will Insha Allah be same as expected: 0.5bps so that means if it is then it failed the expectations from uncle Sam and my observation is it will take downward direction. But I am little scary, so I follow you just be on sidelines and watch at least 1:00 pm - 1:30 pm price action because from 1:30 pm, I expect from Fed press conference, it will go down further as he might focus on rate hike. Since robber bank already have 120 pips in upward direction yesterday for soft inflation and for the last one month, E/U had 100 pips upward move and yesterday in a given candle hour, it reached 120 pips on the upward direction.
So in the end, I wish and In Sha Allah after this stake holder hour, it will take downward direction for the rest of the day, Ameen!!!!
  • #163,260
  • Dec 14, 2022 12:52pm Dec 14, 2022 12:52pm
price rallying before an announcement is either somebody knows something retail traders donot or its just a stops hunt. well amnt complaining since price is moving in direction of trrned
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