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EURUSD only

  • #163,021
  • Dec 9, 2022 2:30pm Dec 9, 2022 2:30pm
a Friday Special, presenting the "AntiVolume AntiVolatility Just Go With The Flow" setup !:
Quoting mtako
{quote} And they did, at least from that 1min perspective. Well done bulls ! my 1H cycle almost over. For me, bulls need closings > 0560 to end it and, so it happens, weaken 15min down momentum at the same time! Any new 5min low -1pt is a scalp for me from here, each with TP4!
Stopping these right here 0538!! 14*4=56
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #163,022
  • Dec 9, 2022 2:39pm Dec 9, 2022 2:39pm
Quoting Js3mwtRc
Bulls be careful from now on we may experience a whole new December monthly candle as big number of options expire today so keep safe!
Quoting mtako
{quote}That would be great. I would prefer a slow but steady move, but the big news makes that less likely I reckon...
I guess we could get both
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #163,023
  • Dec 9, 2022 2:47pm Dec 9, 2022 2:47pm
Sold here 05360, attacking the 1min hammer !
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #163,024
  • Dec 9, 2022 2:59pm Dec 9, 2022 2:59pm
Need 20 more pips and we've got ourselves a countertrend 12H setup, long time no see old friend !!!! Of course, it would be for entry hunting next week
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #163,025
  • Dec 9, 2022 3:21pm Dec 9, 2022 3:21pm
CPI Y/Y Forecast at 7.3%, from 7.7%. Quite a drop.. if this is to be true, I don't see any reason for USD not to continue to depreciate. Time to break that R?
Can't wait for Tuesday and CPI data..
  • #163,026
  • Dec 9, 2022 3:41pm Dec 9, 2022 3:41pm
Quoting mtako
Volatility is starting to shrink, big fishes are out, beware ! sell stop 0547 + Selling every new 15min low from here !
Done with this setup as I have one last drop of wine. Closed here (0533) the 16 positions... The series of bull candles lows gave some extra milk , after which the straight AntiVolatility move ensued.

Happy weekend everyone !
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If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #163,027
  • Dec 10, 2022 4:00am Dec 10, 2022 4:00am
EUR/USD H4 TF

Still Uptrend..
Yet again, close attention to what Asian Session will do..

However, price tested ~1.0595 again, something to keep in mind.. Selling could be more beneficial here than Buying although it's still an Uptrend in my opinion since we have price testing that R already.
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  • #163,028
  • Dec 10, 2022 4:41am Dec 10, 2022 4:41am
Quoting mtako
{quote}{quote}I guess we could get both
Yes both happened, at least we had a flashlight for the Friday and that is what I like in this forum
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #163,029
  • Dec 10, 2022 4:45am Dec 10, 2022 4:45am
It is choppy times for sure. No matter which side we think this goes next... 1.0559 is my inner channel mid-level! If price climbs slightly above it, I would see it as a wave b and try to find a good sell opportunity to trade an anticipated swing c down, but I know robber banks could stop me out by turning what I think is a wave b into a much higher located wave e. That's what trading is about: accepting losses once you play the odds, since nothing is guaranteed.

Therefore, long story short: while price is roughly below 1.0570/75, I will prefer to sell. (Short-term!).

My humble advice: Use this chart as guidance for Monday!

Anyway... Keep enjoying your weekends.. Cheers
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #163,030
  • Dec 10, 2022 4:56am Dec 10, 2022 4:56am
EURUSD has consolidated below all these resistance levels (see chart) still bullish above 1.0428 & 1.0390.

It is going to be the most interesting week of the December and maybe and the year, the ECB and the FOMC are holding meetings and they are going to raise rates from 0.50% both with the ECB going also and maybe for 0.75% but first we are going to see the US CPI numbers out at Tuesday and this will be the key event for a dovish FED and a more bullish EU. The volatility I expect is 141 pips.

With a big long candle closing above 1.0637 the road to 1.0788 is open. The bears will try to break this small upward channel and the 200 ma so they can have chances to reach 1.0200.

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Have a great rest of the weekend
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #163,031
  • Dec 10, 2022 5:06am Dec 10, 2022 5:06am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
It is choppy times for sure. No matter which side we think this goes next... 1.0559 is my inner channel mid-level! If price climbs slightly above it, I would see it as a wave b and try to find a good sell opportunity to trade an anticipated swing c down, but I know robber banks could stop me out by turning what I think is a wave b into a much higher located wave e. That's what trading is about: accepting losses once you play the odds, since nothing is guaranteed. Therefore, long story short: while price is roughly below 1.0570/75, I will prefer...
We are going to see more like this choppy price action as December is the month of choppy price action but going for 5-15 pips at small charts is good I'll stay!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #163,032
  • Dec 10, 2022 5:33am Dec 10, 2022 5:33am
No wonder 3 green hight impact just like shit flowing in calm river
10000% Wannabe . -$3000 & -$4000
Gold Recovery All Time Profit: -$3,961
  • #163,033
  • Dec 10, 2022 5:45am Dec 10, 2022 5:45am
Hi All,

Making out a 2 year case for the euro bulls. I like trading market cycles, because it keeps me on the right side of the market. Here we see the market cycle of the EURUSD for 2021 and 2022. In my view, the euro is currently in a correction phase, heading for the 0.50 Fib of the 2 year range. The highest I see the euro climbing is 1.1000, with likely the weekly 200MA acting as key resistance, before a sell cycle starts.

As per my previous post, I'm trading a bullish channel (circled area) on the Daily, with 1.0800 being my first target. I like 1.0800 because it is roughly 50-60 pips away from the 0.382 Fib of the 2022 yearly range , and is also the mid-point of my weekly channel.. From there, based on candle formation, I'll consider my next TP.

For the Elliott Wave and Harmonics fans, we can see a 5 wave Elliott Wave spanning 1 year and 9 months, now into leg A of a classic ABC correction. This is also why I maintain a bullish bias on the euro, because the 0.50% Fib of that 2 year range will be like a magnet to price action. I merely added the two black dotted lines to show how the Elliott Harmonic pattern is formed.

Good luck to all.
Guy
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  • #163,034
  • Dec 10, 2022 8:26am Dec 10, 2022 8:26am
  •  Austyno
  • Joined Oct 2018 | Status: Risk comes from not knowing what to | 2,234 Posts | Online Now
This week we are entering is highly significant for the major trend shift. Its either a bounce or break.

take a look at the weekly chart.

P.S i still favour the bulls but i keep in mind that Bears are lurking in the shadows
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Risk comes from not knowing what to do
  • #163,035
  • Dec 10, 2022 3:55pm Dec 10, 2022 3:55pm
Daily.tf and 4htf
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  • #163,036
  • Dec 11, 2022 1:27am Dec 11, 2022 1:27am
weekly, Daily

Bulls resistance zone levels limited to 1.0610 -1.0745 -1.0864. I still think these are bulls traps.

1.0636 is the pandemic low. A strong bullcase is needed to cross these lovels 1.06 -1.0636.

one of the most important price i see is 1.0610. Market came every close to this but it moved from 1.0595.

1.0515 is the 50% fib of 2022.
1.0610 is 38% of whole bear move.
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  • #163,037
  • Dec 11, 2022 1:43am Dec 11, 2022 1:43am
Parallel channel view on 4hrs.

Bulls reached 1.0480 on NOV'15 and Bulls took nearly 1 month to make a new high of 1.0580. Just 100 pips which is also 2 day ATR of EURUSD.

i drew 2 parallel channels. One is Bigger and a channel within a channel.

On the inner channel it's goign to hit 1.0350 - 1.0290.
But on the bigger channel hitting PARITY IS INEVITABLE.


fyi: Watchout the prices. It's accurate enough to make a decision.
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  • #163,038
  • Dec 11, 2022 3:05am Dec 11, 2022 3:05am
EUR/USD... dripping down slowly to 1.04000 price range???
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Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
  • #163,039
  • Dec 11, 2022 7:03am Dec 11, 2022 7:03am
It is hopefully easy to recognize. if I pull a Fibonacci from wave X to Y, the EU bounced off at 161.8%.
I defined the waves by Triple-ZigZag.

It's just an assumption! I could be wrong.

Best regards Kaya
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  • #163,040
  • Dec 11, 2022 12:35pm Dec 11, 2022 12:35pm
Quoting GoProKaya
It is hopefully easy to recognize. if I pull a Fibonacci from wave X to Y, the EU bounced off at 161.8%. I defined the waves by Triple-ZigZag. It's just an assumption! I could be wrong. Best regards Kaya {image}
At what level do you consider the target to be probable?
Half of the time, the market is building resistance and support levels, and
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