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MA Crossover System that works for me

  • #101
  • Dec 4, 2022 5:28am Dec 4, 2022 5:28am
Quoting pb41
Thank you Alistair for a very interesting and informative thread. I have a MA crossover system but it gives much more inconsistent results than yours. I am going to demo your system and see how it pans out for me. Regards from a fellow South African.
I'm not convinced that my approach is any more consistent than yours - I suspect my fair share of luck has played a role in the last few weeks. But can we see what yours looks like and how you trade it?
  • #102
  • Dec 5, 2022 4:08am Dec 5, 2022 4:08am
It's just gone 12 noon here. Nothing much useful happening in the forex markets.
  • #103
  • Dec 5, 2022 5:03am Dec 5, 2022 5:03am
Quoting AlistairC
{quote} I'm not convinced that my approach is any more consistent than yours - I suspect my fair share of luck has played a role in the last few weeks. But can we see what yours looks like and how you trade it?
You're right on the luck front. I used to say that to a trading buddie I used to have, I reckoned that success was about 40% luck and 60% your system, or rather where you exited your trade. In fact a friend of mine still trades on random'ish entries but manages his trades very well, adding as well if he thinks it'll continue in his direction. He looses a lot but they're very small, but he trades on M5 or even M1lol
  • #104
  • Dec 5, 2022 5:08pm Dec 5, 2022 5:08pm
Hi Alistair

Thank you for an interesting thread. Keep up the good work and it will be interesting to see how your the strategy goes. Please keep posting results wins and losses and will try to join when I can. I'm a bit like Rover though can only trade the Daily as I run quite a busy business.
Thank You James16, Fijitrader, Mbqb1, ghous, Pinbar and Jarroo. cpfleger
  • #105
  • Dec 6, 2022 12:19am Dec 6, 2022 12:19am
All four NZD pairs here are at or close to resistance and all have had an extended run and are now "stretched", ready to pull back. I'm now waiting for crossovers.

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  • #106
  • Edited 12:47am Dec 6, 2022 12:32am | Edited 12:47am
Quoting AlistairC
All four NZD pairs here are at or close to resistance and all have had an extended run and are now "stretched", ready to pull back. I'm now waiting for crossovers. {image}
can't say that I see them all the same way, "contrariwise", really:
as long as you have HHs & HLs you are still in an uptrend
as long as you have LLs & LHs you are still in an downtrend
if price moves decidedly sideways (despite fake BOs) you are still in a range (that may or may not be an accumulation)
the rest, it seems to me, is speculation and may or may not be what is going to happen
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #107
  • Dec 6, 2022 12:52am Dec 6, 2022 12:52am
Quoting josi
{quote} can't say that I see them all the same way, "contrariwise", really: as long as you have HHs & HLs you are still in an uptrend as long as you have LLs & LHs you are still in an downtrend if price moves decidedly sideways (despite fake BOs) you are still in a range (that may or may not be an accumulation) the rest, it seems to me, is speculation and may or may not be what is going to happen {image} {image} {image}
You're right about HHs and HLs. All I am saying is that I am expecting an H4 crossover on these pairs. After that we will still have to assess whether we have a tradeable setup or not. By then price might have broken through the trend lines defined by the HLs and we might be onto something. But time will tell.
  • #108
  • Dec 6, 2022 1:10am Dec 6, 2022 1:10am
Here's a trade that is based on an H4 crossover. These low-number EMAs cross over very early, so this is still technically counter-trend. It means I must keep a close eye on it and close it quickly if it starts looking heavy.

It would have been better to get in on that red pullback bar, but that was in the middle of my night.

There are several points in favour of taking this trade - all of the USD pairs are showing similar behaviour, suggesting that USD is strengthening across the board. This chart went strongly oversold (as did the daily chart), showing plenty of open space between price and the EMAs, suggesting a strong reaction the other way. This downtrend has been in place for some time so the odds of it turning are higher now. Finally, I have been expecting a refresh on the daily and this might be what is now happening. Does this sound like I am just talking my way out of trouble? It's certainly not the ideal setup. Let's see how it works out.

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  • #109
  • Dec 6, 2022 3:57am Dec 6, 2022 3:57am
I've been following this thread with interest and all four NZD pairs are starting to turn or have turned on the H4. The four examples AlistairC posted earlier are on the daily which shows a different picture than the H4. At the moment there is only the NZD/CAD which is not close to crossing on the H4.
  • #110
  • Edited 9:47am Dec 6, 2022 5:26am | Edited 9:47am
Quoting AlistairC
Here's a trade that is based on an H4 crossover. These low-number EMAs cross over very early, so this is still technically counter-trend. It means I must keep a close eye on it and close it quickly if it starts looking heavy. It would have been better to get in on that red pullback bar, but that was in the middle of my night. There are several points in favour of taking this trade - all of the USD pairs are showing similar behaviour, suggesting that USD is strengthening across the board. This chart went strongly oversold (as did the daily chart),...
That wasn't my cleverest idea. The whole idea behind this is that the secret to trading is to buy when it's going up, sell when it's going down and do neither when it's doing neither. Counter-trend trading doesn't fit into that.
  • #111
  • Dec 6, 2022 5:36am Dec 6, 2022 5:36am
Quoting AlistairC
{quote} That wasn't my cleverest idea. The whole idea behind this is that the secret to trading is to buy when it's going up, sell when it's going down and do neither hen it's doing neither. Counter-trend trading doesn't fit into that.
Don't worry:
Price did what it did - some other day it would have worked out:
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  • #112
  • Dec 6, 2022 7:05am Dec 6, 2022 7:05am
Quoting alanh59
I've been following this thread with interest and all four NZD pairs are starting to turn or have turned on the H4. The four examples AlistairC posted earlier are on the daily which shows a different picture than the H4. At the moment there is only the NZD/CAD which is not close to crossing on the H4.
Yes NC was wonderful on the daily, but of course you need to hold for many days maybe weeks, difficult to do. You could also add on each pull-back, even more difficult to do
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  • #113
  • Dec 6, 2022 7:12am Dec 6, 2022 7:12am
Quoting rover99x
{quote} Yes NC was wonderful on the daily, but of course you need to hold for many days maybe weeks, difficult to do. You could also add on each pull-back, even more difficult to do {image}
Just as a comparison, here's my 8 EMA channel method
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  • #114
  • Dec 6, 2022 7:29am Dec 6, 2022 7:29am
Sell Stop AUDUSD 0.67
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Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #115
  • Dec 6, 2022 11:00am Dec 6, 2022 11:00am
Quoting AlistairC
Here's a trade that is based on an H4 crossover. These low-number EMAs cross over very early, so this is still technically counter-trend. It means I must keep a close eye on it and close it quickly if it starts looking heavy. It would have been better to get in on that red pullback bar, but that was in the middle of my night. There are several points in favour of taking this trade - all of the USD pairs are showing similar behaviour, suggesting that USD is strengthening across the board. This chart went strongly oversold (as did the daily chart),...
Summarised safety checklist

1. Dominant trend: Not bullish
2. Avoid S/R obstructions:No,there is a resistance level right above the entry
3. Enter when price is close to the EMAs: Partly
4. Avoid long/explosive bars: YES
5. Avoid trading into price extremes: No, not actually, see monthly
6. Beware of "old" trends: Yes,on H4, but ...

This wasn't my best trading performance!
  • #116
  • Dec 6, 2022 8:51pm Dec 6, 2022 8:51pm
Buy Stop USDCHF 0.9436
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Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #117
  • Dec 6, 2022 8:57pm Dec 6, 2022 8:57pm
Quoting Einsteinvn
Sell Stop AUDUSD 0.67 {image}
update
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Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #118
  • Dec 6, 2022 9:12pm Dec 6, 2022 9:12pm
Quoting Einsteinvn
Buy Stop USDCHF 0.9436 {image}
the chart clearly is lower high, lower low. so in downtrend
also the mas are almost touching eachother, so no trend at present.
you are taking a buy trade in downtrend.
be careful.
(i can be wrong )
  • #119
  • Dec 7, 2022 1:22am Dec 7, 2022 1:22am
Quoting walvekarraje
{quote} the chart clearly is lower high, lower low. so in downtrend also the mas are almost touching each other, so no trend at present. you are taking a buy trade in downtrend. be careful. (i can be wrong )
Welcome to my humble abode, Dr Walvekar! I'm happy to see you posting here.

I agree with your comments, and my "safety checklist" would too. But this pair is in an interesting situation now.

1. The monthly chart shows that we are close to a very long-term low. Of course price will do what it likes, but history does matter.
2. The weekly shows more detail, that we are sitting on a clear support level.
3. The daily shows we have had an extremely explosive move down (those two very long red bars), so a correction is due.
4. And so, when we look at the H4 chart, while it is not obviously a buy, the larger context looks very much like a bullish market is coming, and perhaps Einsteinvn's trade, if they can hold onto it, will work very well.

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  • #120
  • Edited 4:25am Dec 7, 2022 4:13am | Edited 4:25am
I'm starting to get interested in AUDUSD. It has rejected a resistance level and price might be breaking below the daily EMAs. Still a way to go before we can say it has reversed, but it's worth watching.

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