Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 3151 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #63,001
  • Nov 30, 2022 2:36am Nov 30, 2022 2:36am
GU breakout of 7.45 and 8.00 bar traded for 5 pip. I traded GJ also for 7.45 breakout.
  • #63,002
  • Dec 1, 2022 2:32am Dec 1, 2022 2:32am
How about that as a 6:45am Dax bar break Claudia
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GER30_2022-12-01_08-30-33_3b4ea.png Size: 122 KB
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #63,003
  • Dec 1, 2022 7:45am Dec 1, 2022 7:45am
GU 15min 8am bar break upside and still continuing. This is great..
8am hourly bar also broke upside.
  • #63,004
  • Dec 1, 2022 9:14am Dec 1, 2022 9:14am
Quoting turnip15
How about that as a 6:45am Dax bar break Claudia {image}
as u know i dont tzrade the dax or even look at it...but good to see you having fun with it;-)
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #63,005
  • Dec 2, 2022 2:19am Dec 2, 2022 2:19am
Quoting turnip15
How about that as a 6:45am Dax bar break Claudia {image}
One more time
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GER30_2022-12-02_08-18-39_a7e3b.png Size: 138 KB
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #63,006
  • Dec 5, 2022 4:27am Dec 5, 2022 4:27am
Claudia 6:45am Dax bar

Encore! Encore!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GER30_2022-12-05_10-24-42_74b68.png Size: 141 KB
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #63,007
  • Edited 7:16am Dec 5, 2022 5:32am | Edited 7:16am
I collected some stats on GU M15 8:00 bar breakout UK time. I defined a strategy (below) and then collected stats. I wanted to study the momentum of breakout at London open. My aim is to minimize manual intervention i.e. discretion factor as much as possible.

Strategy:
Chart and TF: GU M15.
Main candle = 8 to 8.15 bar. Next1 candle = 8:15 to 8:30 bar; Next2 candle = 8:30 to 8:45 bar; Next3 candle = 8:45 to 9:00 bar; Next4 candle = 9:00 to 9:15 bar.

  1. Wait for GU M15 8:00 bar to complete. This is main candle
  2. Place a buy order 1 pip above high of main candle and sell order at 1 pip below low of main candle.
  3. Wait for a trigger. If any trade is triggered then close the other.
  4. If trigger does not happen by next1 bar (8.15 is an inside bar) then pull out both order. No trade that day.
  5. Close the trade at close of: (for each close i gathered stats)

    1. close of breakout bar (next 18:15 bar) i.e. close at 8:30
    2. close of next2 bar (8:30 bar) i.e. close at 8:45
    3. close of next3 bar (8:45 bar) i.e. close at 9:00
    4. close of next4 bar (9:00 bar) i.e. close at 9:15



Some stats:
Duration stats collection: 2021-06-23 to 2022-12-02. Thats much back my broker can load on M15. I got 295 trades where 8:15 bar breakout 8:00 bar.
Count of profit and loss trades per bar close

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 23 KB


Pips curves per bar close

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot at Dec 05 16-55-25.png Size: 81 KB


Finally:

This does not include spread, commission, slippage. So factor that as per your broker and minus from final pips. But still i think, closing trade at close of breakout candle i.e. at 8:30 is most profitable (blue curve above). Create and deploy ea for this strategy and forgot it. Just manage risk and you will be profitable. Think with manual intervention you can make even more pips. What say?


This stat is only if breakout happens by 8.15 bar. In coming few days, i will collect stats on max excursion (i.e. high/low made) and also breakout by subsequent bars (in case breakout does not happen by 8.15 bar). I have few more ideas in mind to gather stats. If you have anything to share, then please let me know.
  • #63,008
  • Dec 5, 2022 8:34am Dec 5, 2022 8:34am
Quoting dineshydv
I collected some stats on GU M15 8:00 bar breakout UK time. I defined a strategy (below) and then collected stats. I wanted to study the momentum of breakout at London open. My aim is to minimize manual intervention i.e. discretion factor as much as possible. Strategy: Chart and TF: GU M15. Main candle = 8 to 8.15 bar. Next1 candle = 8:15 to 8:30 bar; Next2 candle = 8:30 to 8:45 bar; Next3 candle = 8:45 to 9:00 bar; Next4 candle = 9:00 to 9:15 bar. Wait for GU M15 8:00 bar to complete. This is main candle Place a buy order 1 pip above high of main...
that is brilliant work!

so in shorts words the best result is to keep the trade as short as possible and then close it at 08-30 london time at the latest?
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #63,009
  • Dec 5, 2022 8:48am Dec 5, 2022 8:48am
I am with this break on EU
Candle 14-15
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: break1.png Size: 22 KB
  • #63,010
  • Dec 5, 2022 8:49am Dec 5, 2022 8:49am
Quoting birdland
{quote} that is brilliant work! so in shorts words the best result is to keep the trade as short as possible and then close it at 08-30 london time at the latest?
yeh, thats very simple strategy. More pips can be made if you try to close near highs/lows of breakout candle. Or BE the trade if it comes back to entry after X pips in profit.
But all these need to be analysed by collecting stats.
  • #63,011
  • Dec 5, 2022 9:06am Dec 5, 2022 9:06am
Quoting dineshydv
{quote} yeh, thats very simple strategy. More pips can be made if you try to close near highs/lows of breakout candle. Or BE the trade if it comes back to entry after X pips in profit. But all these need to be analysed by collecting stats.
or once you get a entry, then switch to lower tf such as m5, m1 or 30s and close trade when rsi gets over brought/sold. That would be a temp high/low of that candle and you can make max profit.
  • #63,012
  • Dec 5, 2022 4:33pm Dec 5, 2022 4:33pm
Quoting dineshydv
I collected some stats on GU M15 8:00 bar breakout UK time. I defined a strategy (below) and then collected stats. I wanted to study the momentum of breakout at London open. My aim is to minimize manual intervention i.e. discretion factor as much as possible. Strategy: Chart and TF: GU M15. Main candle = 8 to 8.15 bar. Next1 candle = 8:15 to 8:30 bar; Next2 candle = 8:30 to 8:45 bar; Next3 candle = 8:45 to 9:00 bar; Next4 candle = 9:00 to 9:15 bar. Wait for GU M15 8:00 bar to complete. This is main candle Place a buy order 1 pip above high of main...
If you coud find stats for Dax (GER30) 00:00-04:00 break. TP Fib 50%, stop loss candle close opposite of the range. normally i do a fib retracement of the range and add postions at 38 and 61. but im sure this is hard to backtest.
  • #63,013
  • Dec 5, 2022 4:37pm Dec 5, 2022 4:37pm
Quoting dineshydv
I collected some stats on GU M15 8:00 bar breakout UK time. I defined a strategy (below) and then collected stats. I wanted to study the momentum of breakout at London open. My aim is to minimize manual intervention i.e. discretion factor as much as possible. Strategy: Chart and TF: GU M15. Main candle = 8 to 8.15 bar. Next1 candle = 8:15 to 8:30 bar; Next2 candle = 8:30 to 8:45 bar; Next3 candle = 8:45 to 9:00 bar; Next4 candle = 9:00 to 9:15 bar. Wait for GU M15 8:00 bar to complete. This is main candle Place a buy order 1 pip above high of main...
thanks for sharing - this is excellent!

Could you please share this Indi for stats collection?
  • #63,014
  • Dec 6, 2022 3:57am Dec 6, 2022 3:57am
Quoting Lineseeker
{quote} thanks for sharing - this is excellent! Could you please share this Indi for stats collection?
I can share the indi, but that wont help. Crux is in the filter, slice-dice, analysis done post data collection. Moreover every strategy will require its own code.
  • #63,015
  • Dec 6, 2022 7:12am Dec 6, 2022 7:12am
Quoting dineshydv
{quote} I can share the indi, but that wont help. Crux is in the filter, slice-dice, analysis done post data collection. Moreover every strategy will require its own code.

Thank you for your response - in future I would suggest you say you won’t share the indicator - no need to be condescending.
  • #63,016
  • Dec 6, 2022 8:39am Dec 6, 2022 8:39am
Quoting Lineseeker
{quote} Thank you for your response - in future I would suggest you say you won’t share the indicator - no need to be condescending.
He's shared his analysis and put in some work. I say good effort and it's up to him what he shares, lets be positive
  • #63,017
  • Dec 6, 2022 9:11am Dec 6, 2022 9:11am
Quoting dineshydv
I collected some stats on GU M15 8:00 bar breakout UK time. I defined a strategy (below) and then collected stats. I wanted to study the momentum of breakout at London open. My aim is to minimize manual intervention i.e. discretion factor as much as possible. Strategy: Chart and TF: GU M15. Main candle = 8 to 8.15 bar. Next1 candle = 8:15 to 8:30 bar; Next2 candle = 8:30 to 8:45 bar; Next3 candle = 8:45 to 9:00 bar; Next4 candle = 9:00 to 9:15 bar. Wait for GU M15 8:00 bar to complete. This is main candle Place a buy order 1 pip above high of main...
Wow that's some remarkable legwork right there, thanks for sharing! So closing it at the end of the entry candle seems like the best course of action, right?

Were you using MT4 to load the data? Because there are some ways to add downloaded data in MT4. (But if you're using another platform nevermind )
  • #63,018
  • Dec 6, 2022 9:19am Dec 6, 2022 9:19am
Quoting Rfs199
{quote} Wow that's some remarkable legwork right there, thanks for sharing! So closing it at the end of the entry candle seems like the best course of action, right? Were you using MT4 to load the data? Because there are some ways to add downloaded data in MT4. (But if you're using another platform nevermind )
Closing at end of entry candle may not be good strategy. Finding a good strategy is like hit-and-trial. Define a strategy -> back test it -> refine it. Closing newr high/low of breakout candle is best strategy but its impossible to determing high/low. So once a trade is triggered, switch to lower tf like m5, m1 or 30s and close trade when its over brought/sold.

I am doing some analysis on targeting fixed amount of pips with stop at other end of main bar. Will post here soon.
  • #63,019
  • Dec 6, 2022 9:19am Dec 6, 2022 9:19am
Quoting RieseP
{quote} If you coud find stats for Dax (GER30) 00:00-04:00 break. TP Fib 50%, stop loss candle close opposite of the range. normally i do a fib retracement of the range and add postions at 38 and 61. but im sure this is hard to backtest.
will collect stats.
  • #63,020
  • Dec 6, 2022 3:01pm Dec 6, 2022 3:01pm
It be interesting on peoples thoughts on how to trade the dax 00:00-04:00 successfully. Target 50 fib
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