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  • #162,401
  • Dec 2, 2022 9:53am Dec 2, 2022 9:53am
Meanwhile, on M30...

1.0498 is now my nearest resistance.. This might become my last post of this week..

In case I disappear, enjoy your weekends folks
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #162,402
  • Dec 2, 2022 9:59am Dec 2, 2022 9:59am
Quoting TheWolf
{quote} Out of position! Something's wrong here..or at least it seems to me. Done for today, whatever.. Next Week I don't expect much, I think price will enter range. As if market doesn't know where to go.. not gonna trade that. 2 Bear momentums already failed. See you on Monday!

I agree with Wolf. It does not seem like there is any institutional participation for this move. Natural movement based on NFP but it seems like the bulls are unwilling to let go and saw a prime buying opportunity, while the bears are not willing to come out and play. Careful with your shorts...
  • #162,403
  • Dec 2, 2022 10:08am Dec 2, 2022 10:08am
Quoting mesohi
{quote} I agree with Wolf. It does not seem like there is any institutional participation for this move. Natural movement based on NFP but it seems like the bulls are unwilling to let go and saw a prime buying opportunity, while the bears are not willing to come out and play. Careful with your shorts...
at what prices do you see bull and bear targets?
  • #162,404
  • Dec 2, 2022 10:11am Dec 2, 2022 10:11am
Bulls are pushing this level again, lets see if they get rejected again
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  • #162,405
  • Dec 2, 2022 11:03am Dec 2, 2022 11:03am
Quoting ForexGoose
buy stop placed at 1.039, stop loss under 1.035, target is 1.048
looks like the downside was rejected after the NFP report, I think that the price is going to 1.065 in the near-term
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don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #162,406
  • Dec 2, 2022 11:21am Dec 2, 2022 11:21am
Can Someone explain what is going on with EU? Now
  • #162,407
  • Dec 2, 2022 11:36am Dec 2, 2022 11:36am
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} looks like the downside was rejected after the NFP report, I think that the price is going to 1.065 in the near-term {image}
after reaching 1.0650, will there be a bearish trend and the strengthening of the euro will end?
  • #162,408
  • Dec 2, 2022 11:50am Dec 2, 2022 11:50am
Wow another day of roller coaster. Happy weekend all. Glad I have skipped it, see you next week
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #162,409
  • Dec 2, 2022 11:56am Dec 2, 2022 11:56am
Quoting Alkhine
{quote} after reaching 1.0650, will there be a bearish trend and the strengthening of the euro will end?
That's a question everyone would like to know! Let's first see the price reaching that level, then we'll judge based on price movement.
  • #162,410
  • Dec 2, 2022 11:59am Dec 2, 2022 11:59am
Quoting TheWolf
{quote} That's a question everyone would like to know! Let's first see the price reaching that level, then we'll judge based on price movement.
Thanks you so much TheWolf
  • #162,411
  • Dec 2, 2022 12:13pm Dec 2, 2022 12:13pm
We are back at the levels where the price was before the drop. Lets see if this levels will hold or not and trade accordingly
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  • #162,412
  • Dec 2, 2022 12:30pm Dec 2, 2022 12:30pm
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} looks like the downside was rejected after the NFP report, I think that the price is going to 1.065 in the near-term {image}
You MAY be right but for argument's sake let me present an alternative:

The NFP by itself wasn't great but what was the trigger for the sell: Wage growth of 0.6%!!!!

I've been saying this for months now but the FED will not stop tightening until it destroys jobs and gets wages back to pre-pandemic levels.
THAT was the REASON for the swift drop.

So why the rebound?

There are too many people who believe that the FED has reached a pivot and they only key in on Powell's statements that he doesn't want to crash the market.

Here's the problem:

The US economy is too strong; good the US economy, bad for long-term inflation.

What does this mean? At the December FED meeting EVERYONE is expecting 0.5% rate increase (it's ALREADY been priced in). However, with the wage increases it raises the possibility of another 0.75% rate increase not the 0.5%.

So where do we go from here?

There will be no more FED speak due to the upcoming December meeting the ONLY market moving event will be the CPI next week which may/will have an influence on the FED's decision.

In MY mind it comes down to this - will the FED be aggressive, neutral or dovish (hahah).

Then AFTER the FED decision you have Christmas and end of year slow down with little volume and wild price swings. When volume dries up TA (in my opinion) suffers and gives false signals.
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #162,413
  • Dec 2, 2022 12:50pm Dec 2, 2022 12:50pm
Plan: Sell Stop Order at 1.05 (smaller lot size) SL 1.07.
If this is the high and it could very well be, I am not missing it.

Every 100 pips up I'll be putting Sell Orders.
I'll be ultra careful with what the price will do during Asian session. They're knows for false breakouts and could provide the best price to go Short from.
  • #162,414
  • Dec 2, 2022 1:46pm Dec 2, 2022 1:46pm
We are currently at 38.2% Level.
~ 1.09 being 50%.

Selling now and if it fails, then Selling from ~ 1.09 although with higher lot if price gets there.
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  • #162,415
  • Dec 2, 2022 2:53pm Dec 2, 2022 2:53pm
Quoting Ultras
We are back at the levels where the price was before the drop. Lets see if this levels will hold or not and trade accordingly {image}
Yeah, that uptrend was strong and made even stronger when it broke above 1.04867 and found value above the level. NFP news was not going to be much of an impact with a trend that strong especially on the heels of Powell's speech. NFP years ago was something to behold in terms of move magnitude . NFP is now even more a focus for the FED given the economic climate and that little drop was the best sellers could do? Lol. Gone are the days of the beloved( and feared) NFP.
  • #162,416
  • Dec 2, 2022 3:11pm Dec 2, 2022 3:11pm
Quoting sharingan9
{quote} Yeah, that uptrend was strong and made even stronger when it broke above 1.04867 and found value above the level. NFP news was not going to be much of an impact with a trend that strong especially on the heels of Powell's speech. NFP years ago was something to behold in terms of move magnitude . NFP is now even more a focus for the FED given the economic climate and that little drop was the best sellers could do? Lol. Gone are the days of the beloved( and feared) NFP.
, ya, CPI is the new NFP.
Risk comes from not knowing what to do
  • #162,417
  • Dec 3, 2022 5:01am Dec 3, 2022 5:01am
EURUSD ended this week up and above 1.0366 (200 sma) after it broke the Mondays pinbar and closed two times above. That is a bullish signal but the area above at 1.0600 is full of strong resistance so be carefull buying. A close above 1.0616 is considered more bullish (see chart arrows). Also it will not be surprising to see it correcting again above 1.0400 & 1.0300 area.

The pips I expect the EU to travel this week are 157 and more if for any reason the bulls or bears decide. That may be news or change in positioning, it doesn't matter we are only following price action day by day and searching for opportunities to enter.

Have a great rest of the weekend.

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Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #162,418
  • Dec 3, 2022 7:37am Dec 3, 2022 7:37am
EU moves north.

Enjoy the weekend.
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Patience, let the trade come to you.
  • #162,419
  • Dec 3, 2022 7:44am Dec 3, 2022 7:44am
Weekly
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  • #162,420
  • Dec 3, 2022 12:58pm Dec 3, 2022 12:58pm
When the markets open and spreads become lower I'll enter Short and put SL at 1.07. If price hits my SL, then I'm certain price will continue it's way to 1.09 which is 50% Fibo Level from which I'll go Short again. Above 1.10 I'm not expecting at all and if that happens I'll stay away from EUR/USD for the time being. Will post the chart with position tommorow!
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