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MA Crossover System that works for me

  • #81
  • Edited 7:00am Dec 1, 2022 6:32am | Edited 7:00am
Quoting AlistairC
{quote} I moved my TP to that support level and it has just reached the target. That plus another small trade that I closed earlier this morning give me just over 2% return for the day. I'm going to take the rest of the day off.
Please be assured that I'm not showing off here, or being arrogant. I'm as excited as anyone about this amazing change in my trading, and I want to encourage all of you with these results that it is quite possible to do well.

The reason this is happening, I'm sure, is down to sticking to what I know and not trying to improve it. And it seems to be true that the less I have on the chart, the better I do. All of this has been with just the 8 and 21 EMAs (plus experience, plus following the safety checks, probably more than my 10,000 hours spent staring at charts and a whole lot of luck).
  • #82
  • Dec 1, 2022 6:37am Dec 1, 2022 6:37am
Here's Coffee Robusta, just about to change trend. Right now coming up, is the high coffee consumption period in the Northern regions Europe and US and prices start to rise, although Covid and the Ukraine war has upset commodities across the world:
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  • #83
  • Dec 1, 2022 6:57am Dec 1, 2022 6:57am
Quoting rover99x
Here's Coffee Robusta, just about to change trend. Right now coming up, is the high coffee consumption period in the Northern regions Europe and US and prices start to rise, although Covid and the Ukraine war has upset commodities across the world: {image}
So, apart from having to adjust the sizes of stops, targets and lot sizes, this looks familiar enough to trade right now. Ignoring the role of fundamentals for now (like the winter coffee season), is there any other adjustment one would need to make to trade commodities and indices effectively?
  • #84
  • Dec 1, 2022 12:12pm Dec 1, 2022 12:12pm
Quoting AlistairC
{quote} So, apart from having to adjust the sizes of stops, targets and lot sizes, this looks familiar enough to trade right now. Ignoring the role of fundamentals for now (like the winter coffee season), is there any other adjustment one would need to make to trade commodities and indices effectively?
Nope not really. I use Global Prime as a broker they have quite a few CFDs listed. Just be aware that the CFDs trade about 22 to 23 hours a day, but that's shown on MT4 platform. They're a copy of the Futures, but on indices just be aware of when their cash markets open. But as I trade the daily it doesn't matter really, plus I use stop orders to get around any spread increase on rollovers. I find that commodities react very well to SR areas so they can be great TP areas
  • #85
  • Dec 1, 2022 2:42pm Dec 1, 2022 2:42pm
Here's Orange Juice about to change trend on the daily
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  • #86
  • Edited Dec 2, 2022 2:30am Dec 1, 2022 2:47pm | Edited Dec 2, 2022 2:30am
Now as far as I'm aware CFDs are banned in the US after lobbying from the futures exchanges, but here in Europe we're free to explot them without the exchanges expensive charges. How long this will last I don't know, we'll see as time goes on
  • #87
  • Dec 2, 2022 2:45am Dec 2, 2022 2:45am
I entered this trade this morning. It's not the cleanest of setups, but so far it's working. Note that price is below and moving down from a long-term resistance level. I'm assuming that down will be the direction for a while.

The MAs crossed down overnight and then there was a pullback to the MAs, creating a two-bar pullback setup. I entered on the lower body section of the pullback candle, which is unusual for me, but I have noticed from backtesting that it does seem to be effective.

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  • #88
  • Dec 2, 2022 2:56am Dec 2, 2022 2:56am
Quoting AlistairC
I entered this trade this morning. It's not the cleanest of setups, but so far it's working. Note that price is below and moving down from a long-term resistance level. I'm assuming that down will be the direction for a while. The MAs crossed down overnight and then there was a pullback to the MAs, creating a two-bar pullback setup. I entered on the lower body section of the pullback candle, which is unusual for me, but I have noticed from backtesting that it does seem to be effective. {image}
A pretty unusual pair, almost exotic, but it's loking nice on H4. Most JPY pairs seem to be benifiting on the Yen's resurgence
  • #89
  • Dec 2, 2022 3:08am Dec 2, 2022 3:08am
Quoting rover99x
{quote} A pretty unusual pair, almost exotic, but it's loking nice on H4. Most JPY pairs seem to be benifiting on the Yen's resurgence
More than nice - massive surge down . Now at breakeven. Free ride from here and I think I might just leave it to see if it gets to the TP of 120 pips. If it doesn't, it (almost) doesn't matter as I've had a great week already.

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  • #90
  • Dec 2, 2022 3:48am Dec 2, 2022 3:48am
First post to the forum and have really enjoyed following your thread so far and just experimenting with your strategy. Thanks very much for taking the time to provide the updates and look forward to seeing how it evolves.
  • #91
  • Dec 2, 2022 5:23am Dec 2, 2022 5:23am
Quoting AlistairC
{quote} More than nice - massive surge down . Now at breakeven. Free ride from here and I think I might just leave it to see if it gets to the TP of 120 pips. If it doesn't, it (almost) doesn't matter as I've had a great week already. {image}
Nice one Alastair. You seem to be doing well on H4, well done! Just stick to it and don't deviate, as you have said......
  • #92
  • Dec 2, 2022 7:23am Dec 2, 2022 7:23am
Yesterday evening UC sell after MA cross and outside bar enter
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Just an opinion. Based on research
  • #93
  • Dec 2, 2022 7:24am Dec 2, 2022 7:24am
How I have been trading is using a trading channel using an 8EMA set to low and another one set to high. Although visually it seems good but in reality it gets in quite late. I have a decision to make now, whether to move to Alastair's proven type of method or stick with my own. Time to ponder! Thank you Alastair for laying out your method.......
  • #94
  • Dec 2, 2022 7:35am Dec 2, 2022 7:35am
Quoting AlistairC
USDJPY, we must now wait for a pulback{image}
Missed IB. Would you wait for this PB to make a dicision?
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Just an opinion. Based on research
  • #95
  • Dec 2, 2022 7:38am Dec 2, 2022 7:38am
Quoting rover99x
How I have been trading is using a trading channel using an 8EMA set to low and another one set to high. Although visually it seems good but in reality it gets in quite late. I have a decision to make now, whether to move to Alastair's proven type of method or stick with my own. Time to ponder! Thank you Alastair for laying out your method.......
I think the way one trades should fit comfortably with your instincts, mindset, lifestyle, and it might not be optimal for someone else. Sounds like your 8 EMA channel isn't that far from my approach, and many lessons you have learned along the way should transfer. But don't go channel hopping.
  • #96
  • Edited 7:53am Dec 2, 2022 7:43am | Edited 7:53am
Quoting since80808
{quote} Missed IB. Would you wait for this PB to make a dicision? {image}
I would wait for shorter bars - these ones are too explosive. And it's Friday. During Monday's Asian session at the beginning of trade next week there might be some short bars that form a consolidation zone higher up near the EMAs. That might be a good place to trade out of.

But look at the daily chart. There might be a longer H4 pullback than you expect, so be cautious about being caught in a bullish correction.
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  • #97
  • Dec 3, 2022 12:21am Dec 3, 2022 12:21am
Thank you Alistair for a very interesting and informative thread. I have a MA crossover system but it gives much more inconsistent results than yours. I am going to demo your system and see how it pans out for me. Regards from a fellow South African.
  • #98
  • Dec 3, 2022 5:31am Dec 3, 2022 5:31am
Quoting AlistairC
{quote} I think the way one trades should fit comfortably with your instincts, mindset, lifestyle, and it might not be optimal for someone else. Sounds like your 8 EMA channel isn't that far from my approach, and many lessons you have learned along the way should transfer. But don't go channel hopping.
No, it's not that far from your approach at all. My health issues have curtailed my trading a lot forcing me to go daily, which brings its own challenges. I promise to not channel hope, been there done that and have used every indicator that's out there, along with EAs. IMHO EAs do not work over the long term, they can work for a while but markets constantly change. Take the pandemic, that changed everything, then the war, Cryptos, the list goes on.
I'm minded to follow your approach using the daily instead, but that time-frame can be mind numbingly slow, we'll see!

Have a great weekend guys
  • #99
  • Dec 3, 2022 7:56am Dec 3, 2022 7:56am
Quoting AlistairC
{quote} I would wait for shorter bars - these ones are too explosive. And it's Friday. During Monday's Asian session at the beginning of trade next week there might be some short bars that form a consolidation zone higher up near the EMAs. That might be a good place to trade out of. But look at the daily chart. There might be a longer H4 pullback than you expect, so be cautious about being caught in a bullish correction. {image}
Shouldn't the pullback be closer to the initial crossover? Does the trade itself lose strength or consistency if the pullback if this many candles after the crossover happened?
  • #100
  • Dec 4, 2022 4:27am Dec 4, 2022 4:27am
Quoting bojack34
{quote} Shouldn't the pullback be closer to the initial crossover? Does the trade itself lose strength or consistency if the pullback if this many candles after the crossover happened?
Yes, usually I trade the first two legs after the crossover (when a suitable setup arises). After that I am cautious even though that trend might continue, because in most cases trends fade after about two legs, and by then there are almost always better opportunities elsewhere.

So when I responded to your initial question I was focussing just on the bars themselves, not the overall trend structure (was too focussed!). But taking the bigger picture into account I would suggest that this trend has been around for a while, so why tempt fate, unless there are strong signs from higher TFs that it will continue.

I have marked up the main trend on this chart with its leg/refresh structure, but these things are not precise and are not predictable. Just that most trends seem to follow the same basic pattern again and again.

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