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  • #162,341
  • Dec 2, 2022 5:45am Dec 2, 2022 5:45am
Quoting TheWolf
{quote} There is this 1.0550 level on Weekly Chart that has seen some battle between Bulls and Bears.
Yep I definitely agree, that's current week's touch moment to the pinching trendline.. I have the habit to always think 1 time stamp ahead and therefore I use next week's touch level as projection: 1.0570 is my ultimate top for this week in case bulls attack one more time!

Best wishes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-W1.png Size: 16 KB
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #162,342
  • Dec 2, 2022 5:45am Dec 2, 2022 5:45am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} Sold the top according to this plan, but is not going as it should and as I suspected we are heading much higher. I want to buy dips closest to 1.0390 with stops below 1.0377, this is now 38.2 support. Target at 1.0632. As my part of my longer term strategy will also be selling tops up to 1.0850, these positions are smaller and have larger stops. {image}
Today I will be selling to hold for a while. 1.0585 AB=CD and 1.0632 1.618 Extension.
This a strong confluence of fib and monthly resistance.
I will only consider buying if price drops to 1.04 before reaching those targets.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 15 KB
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #162,343
  • Dec 2, 2022 5:46am Dec 2, 2022 5:46am
I want NFP to come bad so there is spike and i can sell that spike

My personal view banks and institutions have already factored in the NFP till now and they will wait for today's spike to sell the hell out of Euro.

I will sell at 1.0610 levels

Best of luck to all
PaRaM
  • #162,344
  • Dec 2, 2022 5:52am Dec 2, 2022 5:52am
I think trading would be so much easier if we weren't stressing ourselves with trading with the higher lot size than it's comfortable for us. Basically with smaller lot size, anyone can go Short here and not give the slightest **** about where the price goes next. Just my thoughts..but then we say, yeah.. even if I get 200 pips it won't be that much anyway so why bother, right? Just my thoughts.

Money Management in the end is the most important thing. Even being right more isn't as important since one loss can wipe out you 3,4 good trades if money management sucks.

Another problem being, entering trades too much times. Price can go up or down. That means you have to enter the trade 1 and not very often 2 times top a day. Anything more then 2 times a day is bad and shows you don't know what on Earth is going on and that you're gambling rather than making analysis and going with it.

You react to the market rather than act. That's always bad.
  • #162,345
  • Dec 2, 2022 5:54am Dec 2, 2022 5:54am
Hell of a fight happening rn
BULL vs BEAR
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot (102).png Size: 41 KB

Who will win?
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #162,346
  • Dec 2, 2022 5:55am Dec 2, 2022 5:55am
For today I focus on 1.0538 resistance... that's most important resistance level for today.. But as long as support is strong I keep buying dips.. Imho, there can be 3 outcomes due to NFP data:

1) Resistance breaks for good today and price jumps into a higher league..
2) Resistance breaks but not much happens and we come from 1.0650'ish levels back to today's opening price and answer the question on another week..
3) We get a bearish bounce and drop back to 1.0425 area..

Let's see...
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #162,347
  • Dec 2, 2022 6:01am Dec 2, 2022 6:01am
Quoting TheWolf
.......Another problem being, entering trades too much times. Price can go up or down. That means you have to enter the trade 1 and not very often 2 times top a day. Anything more then 2 times a day is bad and shows you don't know what on Earth is going on and that you're gambling rather than making analysis and going with it.......
I strongly disagree with the bold part because you are obviously speaking of trading some large timeframe like D1 maybe, but traders trade all sorts of timeframes from M1, M2, M3 etc etc up to H1, H4, H6, H8 etc etc.. and all give different amount of signals.. but for the part that money management is important I fully agree!

Best wishes
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #162,348
  • Dec 2, 2022 6:06am Dec 2, 2022 6:06am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} I strongly disagree with the bold part because you are obviously speaking of trading some large timeframe like D1 maybe, but traders trade all sorts of timeframes from M1, M2, M3 etc etc up to H1, H4, H6, H8 etc etc.. and all give different amount of signals.. but for the part that money management is important I fully agree! Best wishes
Fair enough!
Must be stressful to trade those 1M candles though..

Lower the time frame, lower the quality of signals. (Candlestick patterns and all of that..).
  • #162,349
  • Dec 2, 2022 6:12am Dec 2, 2022 6:12am
Perhaps Americanos, upon getting up in about 80 minutes, shall add some fuel to this indecision. Perhaps making a new high @ .056x, and then swush down down forthe hell of it, right after enough buyers are attacted upon seeing the peak. Let's wait & see. Until then, I rest in peace.
  • #162,350
  • Dec 2, 2022 6:16am Dec 2, 2022 6:16am
Quoting TheWolf
{quote} Fair enough! Must be stressful to trade those 1M candles though.. Lower the time frame, lower the quality of signals. (Candlestick patterns and all of that..).
Yes... for the human eye, there is peace in higher timeframes and chaos and stress in smaller timeframes.. Subconsciously, our brains are busy to react to all the little spikes happening on minute charts.. That's why I use them only at the seconds of my entries and quickly switch back to M30 or H1 to stay away from getting pulled in into drama.. M30 and H1 is sort of my sweet spot!

Best wishes
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #162,351
  • Dec 2, 2022 6:20am Dec 2, 2022 6:20am
Quoting TheWolf
{quote} Fair enough! Must be stressful to trade those 1M candles though.. Lower the time frame, lower the quality of signals. (Candlestick patterns and all of that..).
SL are also a lot smaller, i guess that's why so many still decide endure the stress.
  • #162,352
  • Dec 2, 2022 6:22am Dec 2, 2022 6:22am
We had ISM yesterday. Powell stole the show, incidating it was now time to slow the pace. Market took that as if that was a dovish statement.

Not too long ago, a year ago, hiking by 25 bps was very hawkish. Today, hiking by 50 bps is very dovish. I'll let you decipher that emotion. Thanks to A. Greenspan for inventing something to describe: irrational exuberance. Now, ISM came in lower than expected. I put forward 3 cases: ISM, NFP and FOMC. ISM is down, we'll see NFP in couple hours from now, and that already expected dovish move of FOMC. I think December is pretty much settled. Let's take a break, enjoy our holidays.

I wished it was that easy, so to speak. I closed two trades since my last post, one opened at 1.0066 and another at 1.0004. I don't intend to close anymore trade unless price spike by over 300 points to above 1.077. Currently, I've 12 active long positions opened all below parity. They're all profitable now. Even if price drops down to 0.9777 I'm still breaking even with my active EURUSD positions.

Analysis: let's first look at the daily chart (left). We now have 50-SMA approaching 200-SMA. For 50-SMA to go up, price needs to go up fast. I drew an ascending diagonal line with several arrows underneath it. That's suppose to be the ascending support line, when price falls. Parity retest is a possibility, but I would not put too much hope without strong fundamental triggers.

The weekly chart (right) was taken form my other account, first shown here (back in early Sep '22). There, you can see price is attempting to get above, but got rejected by the 50-SMA post-ISM moves. We'll see if NFP changes this sentiment, or if FOMC mid-Dec really pushes market to act more irrationally. Either way, I'm still bullish on this pair. The only thing I wouldn't do right now is to buy, despite being bullish.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily+20221202+L0a.png Size: 23 KB
  • #162,353
  • Dec 2, 2022 6:35am Dec 2, 2022 6:35am
Current H4 candle is inside the range of the last H4 candle. My guess is, if price breaks the high of the last candle it's Buy, for the opposite it's Sell.
  • #162,354
  • Dec 2, 2022 7:05am Dec 2, 2022 7:05am
Quoting TDT.Coffee
EUR/USD 1min Timeframe {image}
Hello TDT

Can you share with us the template and indicators or settings you are using on this image?

Thanks,
  • #162,355
  • Dec 2, 2022 7:08am Dec 2, 2022 7:08am
Quoting cchin
We had ISM yesterday. Powell stole the show, incidating it was now time to slow the pace. Market took that as if that was a dovish statement. Not too long ago, a year ago, hiking by 25 bps was very hawkish. Today, hiking by 50 bps is very dovish. I'll let you decipher that emotion. Thanks to A. Greenspan for inventing something to describe: irrational exuberance. Now, ISM came in lower than expected. I put forward 3 cases: ISM, NFP and FOMC. ISM is down, we'll see NFP in couple hours from now, and that already expected dovish move of FOMC. I think...
it' always a fresh of breath air when you post
  • #162,356
  • Dec 2, 2022 7:13am Dec 2, 2022 7:13am
ECB's de Guindos: High probability of a euro-zone recession.
  • #162,357
  • Dec 2, 2022 7:22am Dec 2, 2022 7:22am
Let's see..
  • #162,358
  • Dec 2, 2022 7:24am Dec 2, 2022 7:24am
EU is getting ready for the move of the day 83 pips range still not completed.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #162,359
  • Dec 2, 2022 7:27am Dec 2, 2022 7:27am
FX option expiries for Dec 2 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.
- EUR/USD: EUR amounts

  1. 1.0350 1.2b
  2. 1.0365 1.1b
  3. 1.0400 1.1b
  4. 1.0420 923m
  5. 1.0435 508m
  6. 1.0475 709m
  7. 1.0600 579m

Live long and prosper with green pips!
  • #162,360
  • Dec 2, 2022 7:28am Dec 2, 2022 7:28am
Lets Rock n Roll !!
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