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  • #162,101
  • Nov 30, 2022 8:46am Nov 30, 2022 8:46am
Quoting delpiero
Do you think Fed will let markets going up? S&P will probably fall 20-25% in coming weeks. USD will go up. Noone can stop this.
I disagree. First of all, a high USD makes the entire world suffer, including the USA. USA exports cost more, and GDP falls.

FED Powell does not want to see the S&P higher, but they also are handcuffed by higher rates. The higher the rates, the higher the cost of debt. For example: if feds want to keep increasing rates to 5% as some expect, then we can also see US 10-year bonds go to at least 5% as well. Meaning USA must pay out 5% rates on 10-year bonds, and even higher on US20 and US30-year bonds. It is true that feds can print more money to cover the cost of debt, but how far are they willing to print and cause more inflation to cover those higher rates?

All I am saying here is Feds are getting to the breaking point of raising rates. They will most likely slow the rate of increase and HOLD. I doubt they cut anytime soon. This will cause DXY to move much lower. And, since EUR has just begun rate hikes, the EUR should move higher. All this in the medium term. This should all happen in the coming months/year. In the longer term (til 2030) I do believe that DXY gets much stronger, and S&P will go much lower.
  • #162,102
  • Nov 30, 2022 8:46am Nov 30, 2022 8:46am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
On H4, the situation is a little bit weird: It looks bullish on chart but MACD is slowly settling in bearish territory! Here, my breakout marker line: 1.0341 could be used as nearest support.. 1.0302 would then be my extra support... I leave it to you how to trade throughout this weirdness.. I will definitely trade careful via M30! {image}
It is because trend strength slowing down.
  • #162,103
  • Nov 30, 2022 8:52am Nov 30, 2022 8:52am
Quoting MarvOli
{quote} I disagree. First of all, a high USD makes the entire world suffer, including the USA. USA exports cost more, and GDP falls. FED Powell does not want to see the S&P higher, but they also are handcuffed by higher rates. The higher the rates, the higher the cost of debt. For example: if feds want to keep increasing rates to 5% as some expect, then we can also see US 10-year bonds go to at least 5% as well. Meaning USA must pay out 5% rates on 10-year bonds, and even higher on US20 and US30-year bonds. It is true that feds can print more money...
First and foremost the FED needs to bring inflation down because the USD is world reserve currency number 1 and it needs to be a storage of value. With high inflation it is not. hence they will keep acting decively until inflation is down. afterwards they can still lower rates again, this intermediary policy of high interest rates does not harm the government, especially because nominal GDP increases alike with inflation and debt is always measured as a percentage of GDP...
Another day, another dollar.
  • #162,104
  • Edited 9:07am Nov 30, 2022 8:54am | Edited 9:07am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
On M30, I think now it is all about a break above 1.0375 or break below 1.0350.. Let's see who wins... For now, I keep buying dips! {image}
I don't know about targets, future plans etc etc... All I cared was to keep buying dips and here we are...

What to do next? Based on M30, keep buying dips 1.0367 is my nearest support!

*I keep a bullish bias as long as we are above 1.0343 today!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #162,105
  • Nov 30, 2022 8:54am Nov 30, 2022 8:54am
Quoting MarvOli
{quote} I disagree. First of all, a high USD makes the entire world suffer, including the USA. USA exports cost more, and GDP falls. FED Powell does not want to see the S&P higher, but they also are handcuffed by higher rates. The higher the rates, the higher the cost of debt. For example: if feds want to keep increasing rates to 5% as some expect, then we can also see US 10-year bonds go to at least 5% as well. Meaning USA must pay out 5% rates on 10-year bonds, and even higher on US20 and US30-year bonds. It is true that feds can print more money...
Last month, Powell said that they are not even near to their target. They may slow down and increase rate by 50 points in December. But still, they are increasing, they are not stopping or decreasing. And they are not happy about market reactions. They want markets going down, slower economy. And there is a single target: inflation. I believe DXY will go to 120 in coming weeks.
  • #162,106
  • Nov 30, 2022 8:58am Nov 30, 2022 8:58am
Common guys, keep buying! Don't let this M15 candle engulf the previous one.
  • #162,107
  • Nov 30, 2022 9:05am Nov 30, 2022 9:05am
Quoting nic9man
{quote} First and foremost the FED needs to bring inflation down because the USD is world reserve currency number 1 and it needs to be a storage of value. With high inflation it is not. hence they will keep acting decively until inflation is down. afterwards they can still lower rates again, this intermediary policy of high interest rates does not harm the government, especially because nominal GDP increases alike with inflation and debt is always measured as a percentage of GDP...
The Feds have increased rates at a pace never before seen in US history. Some time needs to pass to see how these rate increases have affected the economy. So I do see 50BP in December, and maybe one more 25BP before they hold. I doubt they cut rates UNTIL something breaks, like the bond market. Could be something like what happened in Great Britain recently.

Higher rates DO harm governments. They have to pay HIGHER rates on DEBT. Look at the US national debt, do you think the US has enough DEBT and wants to increase DEBT at a higher rate? DXY has most likely topped. If we do see higher DXY it will come from some black swan event.
  • #162,108
  • Nov 30, 2022 9:10am Nov 30, 2022 9:10am
Quoting MarvOli
{quote} The Feds have increased rates at a pace never before seen in US history. Some time needs to pass to see how these rate increases have affected the economy. So I do see 50BP in December, and maybe one more 25BP before they hold. I doubt they cut rates UNTIL something breaks, like the bond market. Could be something like what happened in Great Britain recently. Higher rates DO harm governments. They have to pay HIGHER rates on DEBT. Look at the US national debt, do you think the US has enough DEBT and wants to increase DEBT at a higher rate?...
If rates were to stay high for 10 years then maybe yes, but not over 2 years. Also just maybe because nominal costs increase for the government, but nominal income in terms of taxes increases alike with inflation. actually inflation can even help governments to inflate their debt away, though currently they prefer to spend the money.
Another day, another dollar.
  • #162,109
  • Nov 30, 2022 9:11am Nov 30, 2022 9:11am
Quoting delpiero
{quote} Last month, Powell said that they are not even near to their target. They may slow down and increase rate by 50 points in December. But still, they are increasing, they are not stopping or decreasing. And they are not happy about market reactions. They want markets going down, slower economy. And there is a single target: inflation. I believe DXY will go to 120 in coming weeks.
The feds will increase rates in the coming months. But, 50BP is already priced in for DEC, and if we get 75BP we will see higher DXY. Otherwise, the high is already in on DXY. If we get 50BP, we will start to see DXY move down. We are already seeing inflation peaking, unemployment starting to turn higher, and housing prices moving lower (all things that FEDS wants to see). I believe we start seeing lower US bond prices and weaker DXY in the coming months. I would guess until MARCH 2023. A 120 handle on DXY is highly unlikely IMO, until 2024+. I believe we see 90 on DXY before we see 120.

In the SHORT TERM:

I would prefer to see DXY to 107.5-109. This would make a nice SELL opp on DXY. I think the next target is 103 in the next 2 months.
  • #162,110
  • Nov 30, 2022 9:15am Nov 30, 2022 9:15am
On D1 I have two levels or tomorrow: 1.0352 area as nearest support and 1.0472 as main resistance...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #162,111
  • Nov 30, 2022 9:15am Nov 30, 2022 9:15am
Quoting giantino2000
We are about to witness the biggest assault on 0.404.Time for this to happen is 90minutes. Within this 2hr candle on 1hr chart if 0344 didn't hold. Ata 0302 won't hold either and if this happens rest in peace bulls. Fingers crossed
Disappointed with bulls since morning so i switch to bears.my bears life is now in the hands of the FEDS
  • #162,112
  • Nov 30, 2022 9:16am Nov 30, 2022 9:16am
short euro here
MTF PA with indicators = a winning team
  • #162,113
  • Nov 30, 2022 9:20am Nov 30, 2022 9:20am
Not today...

Just went long at 1.0345... Stop 14 pips.. TP: open!
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #162,114
  • Nov 30, 2022 9:21am Nov 30, 2022 9:21am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
On D1 I have two levels or tomorrow: 1.0352 area as nearest support and 1.0472 as main resistance... {image}
IF today low of 320 is taken out then 367 will be my resistance for 2moro. trade safe Ata
  • #162,115
  • Nov 30, 2022 9:21am Nov 30, 2022 9:21am
Quoting nic9man
{quote} If rates were to stay high for 10 years then maybe yes, but not over 2 years. Also just maybe because nominal costs increase for the government, but nominal income in terms of taxes increases alike with inflation. actually inflation can even help governments to inflate their debt away, though currently they prefer to spend the money.
I have been saying this same thing for over a year now. Almost all of the US debt is issued in non-inflation-protected bonds. So as inflation goes up, the US can pay back debt at a discount. So the inflation isn't bad for them. They don't really care that much about inflation, they just do not want it to RUN AWAY as it has in Japan.
  • #162,116
  • Nov 30, 2022 9:27am Nov 30, 2022 9:27am
Took a little 45 pip quick hit and run...
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  • #162,117
  • Nov 30, 2022 9:28am Nov 30, 2022 9:28am
Buy the the dip sell the rally till 19.30Gmt+1.Just don't go off the line. Am selling till we breach today's low
  • #162,118
  • Nov 30, 2022 9:33am Nov 30, 2022 9:33am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Not today... Just went long at 1.0345... Stop 14 pips.. TP: open!
Busted... will continue later some time after Powell speech...
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #162,119
  • Nov 30, 2022 9:35am Nov 30, 2022 9:35am
Quoting giantino2000
Buy the the dip sell the rally till 19.30Gmt+1.Just don't go off the line. Am selling till we breach today's low
Today low busted. Atah were next?
  • #162,120
  • Nov 30, 2022 9:36am Nov 30, 2022 9:36am
Quoting MarvOli
{quote} I have been saying this same thing for over a year now. Almost all of the US debt is issued in non-inflation-protected bonds. So as inflation goes up, the US can pay back debt at a discount. So the inflation isn't bad for them. They don't really care that much about inflation, they just do not want it to RUN AWAY as it has in Japan.
They dont care about inflation? How clear can they describe. They only care about inflation, they dont care much about slowing of economy. If inflation continues to rise, people will start protests. Its a very big problem in USA
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