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M1 Countertrend Scalping Strategy

  • #81
  • Edited 2:01pm Nov 28, 2022 1:42pm | Edited 2:01pm
Quoting Guevogrande
5 m bar below and away from all ma =long =============== S/R INDI HELP {image} {image} {image} {image}
Good job! You are getting the hang of it

The more you train and observe the market, the better your entries will be.

Please note that I am not sure how well you timed your entries in these two charts as I cannot see any trade levels or how wide the spread is (you should make your charts a bit more clear and activate both bid/ask lines so other people don't get confused):

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The timing seems a bit off in these trades, remember that more distance from the EMAs = better entries. If you wait too much for confirmation you are already late to the party. Thanks for sharing my friend!
  • #82
  • Nov 28, 2022 1:56pm Nov 28, 2022 1:56pm
Quoting scsstnt
Hello,I just found this thread,contributing towards its development,great stuff Abade {image}
Good job! You already got 100% the hang of it with those nice support and the resistance levels

Also, I am loving this chart! Lots of good setups on it:

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Thanks for sharing my friend! And welcome aboard
  • #83
  • Nov 28, 2022 2:42pm Nov 28, 2022 2:42pm
I want to share an observation of wedges + countertrend trading with this strategy that you may want to consider for your entry setups:

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  • #84
  • Nov 28, 2022 9:16pm Nov 28, 2022 9:16pm
Quoting Abade
{quote} Good job! You already got 100% the hang of it with those nice support and the resistance levels Also, I am loving this chart! Lots of good setups on it: {image} Thanks for sharing my friend! And welcome aboard
You're always welcome,thank you for illustrating key areas on my charts,i use price action each day to create those strong levels,I noticed after the level 1.20272 we have a significant drop,what filter would have been in place not to allow buying in such conditions? Just getting more familiar with the entry criteria/rules.Thank you
  • #85
  • Nov 29, 2022 1:43am Nov 29, 2022 1:43am
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  • #86
  • Nov 29, 2022 2:27am Nov 29, 2022 2:27am
Quoting scsstnt
{quote} You're always welcome,thank you for illustrating key areas on my charts,i use price action each day to create those strong levels,I noticed after the level 1.20272 we have a significant drop,what filter would have been in place not to allow buying in such conditions? Just getting more familiar with the entry criteria/rules.Thank you
Sadly, there is no 100% guarantee that we won't get caught in a breakout sooner or later (no filter or strategy in the world can do that), that's why we include cost averaging and trade one pair at a time in the lower time-frames to keep our margin as safe as possible from these moves. The full list of things that protect your account go like this:

1) Use the cost averaging/recovery method described in this video (note that you can be much less aggresive than this guy and still be profitable):

Inserted Video


Another NOTE: Make sure you are familiar with the position sizing you may use safely for your account size and leverage.

2) Trade the lower-timeframes where price returns to the EMAs more often than the higher time-frames. This way you won't have to babysit a losing position for hours (terrible idea).

3) Never trade during a red/orange news event (these may trigger strong breakouts).

4) Remember that a strong parabolic move or breakout is usually followed by an equally strong/deep pullback in most cases. This way, if you are caught in a breakout consider to use a slower EMA as an exit to benefit from these moves (50, or even the 200 EMA). The video shows how that works.

5) Price usually touches the 9 EMA again before returning to the rest of the slower EMAs after a breakout (this is a weakness sign), you may decide to NOT enter new recovery positions until this happens.

6) You may want to consider adding some momentum criteria (RSI or Heiken ashi candles) or divergence just as cpflegger does for a more conservative approach if you don't feel 100% comfortable with the cost averaging and multiple-trades approach.

7) Practice, practice, practice . Watch the oldest videos from the King of Forex channel to get more examples, then try to work/improve your system variation to match your risk profile.

You may want to post screenshots of such big moves to get ideas on how to manage them better. Have a good one!
  • #87
  • Nov 29, 2022 2:38am Nov 29, 2022 2:38am
Quoting scsstnt
{image} {image}
Niiiiiceeee! Keep them going and don't get scared by big moves! The bigger the move, the bigger the gap between price and EMA's = more profits.

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  • #88
  • Nov 29, 2022 3:17am Nov 29, 2022 3:17am
Quoting Abade
{quote} Niiiiiceeee! Keep them going and don't get scared by big moves! The bigger the move, the bigger the gap between price and EMA's = more profits. {image}
Thank you very much Sir :-) I'll keep going
  • #89
  • Nov 29, 2022 5:12am Nov 29, 2022 5:12am
Start of another trading day...
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  • #90
  • Nov 29, 2022 10:41am Nov 29, 2022 10:41am
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  • #91
  • Nov 29, 2022 11:27am Nov 29, 2022 11:27am
All I can say is be careful with the KOF stuff.Here is my current position this morning. Now in babysit mode.
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  • #92
  • Nov 29, 2022 11:58am Nov 29, 2022 11:58am
Quoting josh1111
All I can say is be careful with the KOF stuff.Here is my current position this morning. Now in babysit mode. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRFa_qVRNQ4 {image}
You have no market structure in place,you buy,buy,buy,buy,buy,too hurry to buy.....i'm not surprised it happened...where are your key levels? I have an edge in the market with my zones,it not everyday S&R it something I invented that works 90% of the time,check all my turning points.
  • #93
  • Nov 29, 2022 12:34pm Nov 29, 2022 12:34pm
Quoting josh1111
All I can say is be careful with the KOF stuff.Here is my current position this morning. Now in babysit mode. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRFa_qVRNQ4 {image}
AUDUSD H1 some basic moves you'd learn from candlestick patterns,observe what gold and USD is doing in respect to AUD dollar,correlation,check if its positive/negative,what news influences price directionally they are linked like ring on finger.

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  • #94
  • Edited 10:59pm Nov 29, 2022 10:42pm | Edited 10:59pm
Quoting josh1111
All I can say is be careful with the KOF stuff.Here is my current position this morning. Now in babysit mode. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRFa_qVRNQ4 {image}
Hi josh1111! You seem to be a little confused. I watched the video but that's NOT the strategy we are using here, the reviewer is talking about a trend strategy. Here, we are testing a COUNTERTREND strategy that uses ALL the 9, 20, 50 and 200 EMAs as profit targets.

You are losing that setup because:

1) You are not trading EURUSD, GBPUSD. There is a good reason why I didn't include AUD pairs and gold to the recommended list: They are trend/momentum friendly, so they can be a lot harder to manage in comparison (not impossible).

2) You are overleveraging too quickly into a losing position. You are supposed to open just 1 to 3 trades in the beginning and then add recovery trades as the 9 EMA pierces your entry levels, one at a time (read the instructions carefully). Once price touches the 9 EMA --AGAIN-- you can start thinking of adding more positions to close at the next 20, 50, 200 EMA touch. The first post contains a good example of these rules in action.

3) You are supposed to exit as soon as price touches the closest EMAs AND most of your positions are in profit, NEVER LET THEM RUN FREELY. But as you are not following sensible rules for the cost averaging method most of your entries are too high when price returns to the 20 and 50, and you are also OUT OF MARGIN :

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Use smaller lot sizes and less entries when starting out!

4) You are supposed to use some sort of entry rules to catch a "high/low enough" entry such as support and resistance, bands, etc (whatever you are most familiar with). Don't use random entries.

Remember that the edge doesn't come from the cost averaging method, it comes from your entry logic and the fact that price tends to revert to the mean most of the time, and it does in that chart you are trading, but you overleveraged and killed your account too soon (even before that happened). Watch a few examples from scsstnt and cpfleger (and don't use real money yet, your P/L window almost gave me an aneurysm)
  • #95
  • Nov 30, 2022 7:12am Nov 30, 2022 7:12am
Another day trading..
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  • #96
  • Nov 30, 2022 7:28am Nov 30, 2022 7:28am
More trades...
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  • #97
  • Nov 30, 2022 10:21am Nov 30, 2022 10:21am
Quoting Abade
{quote} Hi josh1111! You seem to be a little confused. I watched the video but that's NOT the strategy we are using here, the reviewer is talking about a trend strategy. Here, we are testing a COUNTERTREND strategy that uses ALL the 9, 20, 50 and 200 EMAs as profit targets. You are losing that setup because: 1) You are not trading EURUSD, GBPUSD. There is a good reason why I didn't include AUD pairs and gold to the recommended list: They are trend/momentum friendly, so they can be a lot harder to manage in comparison (not impossible). 2) You are...
I am not confused at all quite the contrary. The video is going over KOF #1 strategy versus his EMA strategy that we are reviewing in this thread. I felt it was pertinent as the author of the video does briefly discuss both strategy's. I regrettably bought the number 1 strategy. Both seem bogus to me after much review, experimentation and even learning to program EA's to implement it with great precision. I think what the other people in this forum are adding to it could make the EMA strategy viable. Cpfleger seems to have it working for him with the other indicators but the trend breakouts can really blow an account easily.
Here is my mornings example lost down $1900 this morning (margin called) using it on GPDUSD when a big trend broke out. I appreciate all of the input and discussion
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. Thanks
  • #98
  • Nov 30, 2022 12:32pm Nov 30, 2022 12:32pm
Quoting josh1111
{quote} I am not confused at all quite the contrary. The video is going over KOF #1 strategy versus his EMA strategy that we are reviewing in this thread. I felt it was pertinent as the author of the video does briefly discuss both strategy's. I regrettably bought the number 1 strategy. Both seem bogus to me after much review, experimentation and even learning to program EA's to implement it with great precision. I think what the other people in this forum are adding to it could make the EMA strategy viable. Cpfleger seems to have it working for...

Hi josh1111! Of course it's going to blow up my friend, you are opening a whole lot (1.0) using 1000 USD, do this with ANY strategy and the final outcome will always be a blown account. The entry logic has nothing to do with overleveraging, it's actually a very basic trading principle.

A transcript of the video review in the 5:08 mark:

Inserted Video


- "...So we have this 200 EMA line right? And when price goes above it we buy and you keep buying on..."

We are doing the exact opposite in this thread, it's not the same. We sell when price is above and buy when price is below the EMA lines. We are not trading with the trend, buying breakouts or pullbacks. Please refer to the first post and video of this thread that explains the logic of the strategy.
  • #99
  • Edited 2:06pm Nov 30, 2022 12:53pm | Edited 2:06pm
This is how you enter recovery trades using cost averaging:

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You are doing it right when:

1) The latest entries will have better profit potential than the early entries.
2) New entries won't lead to over-leveraging.
3) You exit with a win, small win, breakeven or small loss (worse case).
4) You never leave the trades running after price is bouncing off the EMAs.
  • #100
  • Edited 2:02pm Nov 30, 2022 1:21pm | Edited 2:02pm
Quoting josh1111
{quote} I am not confused at all quite the contrary. The video is going over KOF #1 strategy versus his EMA strategy that we are reviewing in this thread. I felt it was pertinent as the author of the video does briefly discuss both strategy's. I regrettably bought the number 1 strategy. Both seem bogus to me after much review, experimentation and even learning to program EA's to implement it with great precision. I think what the other people in this forum are adding to it could make the EMA strategy viable. Cpfleger seems to have it working for...
Post-mortem analysis:

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The aftermath:

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I don't recommend any EA as this is not a mechanical strategy, you have to use discretion and knowledge of market structure to make it work.
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