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MA Crossover System that works for me

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  • Post #41
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  • Nov 24, 2022 9:47am Nov 24, 2022 9:47am
  •  AlistairC
  • | Joined Nov 2022 | Status: Member | 202 Posts
Quoting AlistairC
Disliked
Just realised - its Thanksgiving weekend in the USA. Markets will be very slow.
Ignored
Maybe not such a good time for this trade to trigger. Holding thumbs for a quick breakout below this small consolidation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • Post #42
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  • Nov 25, 2022 1:36am Nov 25, 2022 1:36am
  •  AlistairC
  • | Joined Nov 2022 | Status: Member | 202 Posts
Quoting AlistairC
Disliked
{quote} Maybe not such a good time for this trade to trigger. Holding thumbs for a quick breakout below this small consolidation. {image}
Ignored
This USDCAD trade still on, but going nowhere. With the US Thanksgiving weekend now on, everything will be slow, and almost no news events in the calendar. Go out and have a picnic, be thankful.
 
 
  • Post #43
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  • Nov 25, 2022 2:51am Nov 25, 2022 2:51am
  •  AlistairC
  • | Joined Nov 2022 | Status: Member | 202 Posts
Quoting josi
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Quoting AlistairC
Disliked
{quote} This USDCAD trade still on, but going nowhere. /quote] I still think this is an interesting trade, and it is still unclear which way it will turn. (I hope you don't regard the gray line and LH/LL etc as extra indicators - but if you do, just delete my post) If you only take MMO (measured move objective) as criterium it only has another 10 pips to go before it will retest the upper part of the gray area (but everything can - and does sometimes - happen). Maybe - if you can find the time - you could at some point
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...
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Hi josi

As my aim with this thread is for us to develop expertise using naked MAs, I would prefer it if you remove those indicators when you next post, but use them at home, by all means!

My problem (maybe not your problem, and that's ok) with indicators is that we start trusting them / being misled by them (take your pick!), which means we are no longer using our eyes and our mind to the same extent. I have been though this many times before - divert off my path to try greener pastures, get frustrated, and come back to where I feel most comfortable. Ultimately, I am my own holy grail of trading. That's not meant to sound arrogant, just a different perspective on what I should rely on for success.

So for me, I want to stick to just two MAs, nothing else, and this thread is part of that commitment.

To answer your questions, firstly, I've never heard of MMOs before, but my answer would likely be as written above. Then the issue of fakeouts. Could you clarify what you mean by this in our context here? It might mean one thing to you and another to me!
 
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  • Post #44
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  • Nov 25, 2022 3:11am Nov 25, 2022 3:11am
  •  josi
  • Joined Aug 2019 | Status: Member | 541 Posts
Quoting AlistairC
Disliked
{quote}{quote} ...I've never heard of MMOs before....Then the issue of fakeouts. Could you clarify what you mean by this in our context here?
Ignored
MMO: you tend to have a first trend move (1-2), then a retracement (2-3), then a second trend move (3-4):
1-2 and 3-4 tend to be of the same/similar length
Fakeout: as you enter with buy stop or sell stop, your trades get filled once an imaginary line is crossed. Oftentimes price tests a new low/high only to return to a range etc. Later on it will move against you: Do you wait for your SL to be hit or do you get out of the trade early once you realize there may not be a follow through?
 
 
  • Post #45
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  • Nov 25, 2022 3:49am Nov 25, 2022 3:49am
  •  AlistairC
  • | Joined Nov 2022 | Status: Member | 202 Posts
Quoting josi
Disliked
{quote} MMO: you tend to have a first trend move (1-2), then a retracement (2-3), then a second trend move (3-4): 1-2 and 3-4 tend to be of the same/similar length Fakeout: as you enter with buy stop or sell stop, your trades get filled once an imaginary line is crossed. Oftentimes price tests a new low/high only to return to a range etc. Later on it will move against you: Do you wait for your SL to be hit or do you get out of the trade early once you realize there may not be a follow through?
Ignored
On your fakeouts question, if I have correctly identified the dominant trend and followed my safety checks, then I have learned to have faith in the "system". This means that I tend to leave trades to run even if they do go the wrong way because eventually the dominant trend will (should / might ) see them right again. But as my stops tend to be fairly large, I will reduce risk as described earlier by closing 25% of my lot size at about halfway into loss and maybe another 25% after that, depending on what I think is happening. Then, if price does come back I can use what remains of my trade to pull back some profits to cover what I have closed. That's the theory. As I said previously, I don't know if this is best practice (probably not) but it has some clear benefits for me, mainly the psychological one of reducing the fear of losing an entire trade in one big hit.

What do you do in such situations?
 
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  • Post #46
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  • Nov 25, 2022 4:21am Nov 25, 2022 4:21am
  •  AlistairC
  • | Joined Nov 2022 | Status: Member | 202 Posts
This pair chosen randomly for an "enter on every crossover" experiment. I have a crossover arrow indicator that I use for convenience. I set it on Shift -1, so it helps me pick up the EMA crossover as that bar closes, which is 1 bar earlier than the usual crossover indicators.

The results are surprisingly good, as with the previous such experiment I did. Can't be right, but I think it is. Does that mean that with all our brain power and safety checks, we aren't doing any better than following the arrows blindly? I use an EA to move the stop to B/E at 50 pips and set the TP to 100 pips. I think a lot of the success of what is shown here is helped by these parameters.

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  • Post #47
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  • Nov 25, 2022 4:22am Nov 25, 2022 4:22am
  •  josi
  • Joined Aug 2019 | Status: Member | 541 Posts
Quoting AlistairC
Disliked
{quote} What do you do in such situations?
Ignored
When in doubt, I am out...
 
 
  • Post #48
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  • Nov 25, 2022 4:42am Nov 25, 2022 4:42am
  •  AlistairC
  • | Joined Nov 2022 | Status: Member | 202 Posts
Quoting josi
Disliked
{quote} When in doubt, I am out...
Ignored
Could you explain how you get to a point of being in doubt? That would be helpful.

With my stops at recent swing points the logic is that if price goes beyond that recent high or low that a trade in that direction is no longer valid. So that would be the only logical time to close, if I am not mistaken. My strategy of reducing risk along the way is psychological rather than objective, as I know I have a weakness with taking losses, and hence it is entirely logical .
 
 
  • Post #49
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  • Nov 25, 2022 4:49am Nov 25, 2022 4:49am
  •  AlistairC
  • | Joined Nov 2022 | Status: Member | 202 Posts
Quoting AlistairC
Disliked
I'm in this GBPJPY trade now (the USDCAD one has still not triggered). This is a useful example of the emergency exit procedure I use - I deleted 25% of the lot size a while back, and was going to close down more but when I looked again, it had recovered. It also shows that by placing the stop at a previous swing point, a logical place, it gives extra protection than if it's just a set number of pips away. In this case that previous swing point was rather weak, not really a swing, so I went a bit further down, not quite to the next swing low, but...
Ignored
This is a useful example of my risk reduction strategy. The trade has recovered (and moved to B/E) so as it stands now with just less than half of the original lot size remaining, I have almost recouped all of those losses caused by my manual partial closes. This example also reinforces my faith in the "system". Next time it wil probably come back to bite me.

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  • Post #50
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  • Edited 6:01am Nov 25, 2022 5:06am | Edited 6:01am
  •  josi
  • Joined Aug 2019 | Status: Member | 541 Posts
Quoting AlistairC
Disliked
{quote} Could you explain how you get to a point of being in doubt?
Ignored
In the example we discussed (your system, USDCADH4) my SL would have been above the last LH
but
the situation being what I think it was I would have been out the moment the upward candle closed above EMA8
(because for me that establishes a HL; with reentry always being possible, if the situation changes fundamentally)
[If you compare yesterday's daily open line with today's you see that both are more or less at the same level, which - I think - indicates a range instead of a trend; and the range at the moment is defined by yesterday's high/low]
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  • Post #51
  • Quote
  • Nov 25, 2022 6:01am Nov 25, 2022 6:01am
  •  AlistairC
  • | Joined Nov 2022 | Status: Member | 202 Posts
Quoting josi
Disliked
{quote} In the example we discussed (your system, USDCADH4) my SL would have been above the last LH but the situation being what I think it was I would have been out the moment the upward candle closed above EMA8 (because for me that establishes a HL; with reentry always being possible, if the situation changes fundamentally) {image}
Ignored
Thanks, josi, a useful insight.

I have been asked about the MA crossover signal that I use. You need to get it from the source website because you have to copy three folders and drop them into your MQL4 folder, not the indicators folder. The instructions are on the website https://www.earnforex.com/metatrader...ossover-alert/

I have also posted a screenshot of the settings I use.

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Name: MQLTA MA Crossover signal.png
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  • Post #52
  • Quote
  • Nov 28, 2022 4:21am Nov 28, 2022 4:21am
  •  AlistairC
  • | Joined Nov 2022 | Status: Member | 202 Posts
Quoting AlistairC
Disliked
{quote} Thanks, josi, a useful insight. I have been asked about the MA crossover signal that I use. You need to get it from the source website because you have to copy three folders and drop them into your MQL4 folder, not the indicators folder. The instructions are on the website https://www.earnforex.com/metatrader...ossover-alert/ I have also posted a screenshot of the settings I use. {image}
Ignored
I owe you all an apology. It's that saying "If it's too good to be true, it probably is". And I should have known that when backtesting results show consistently good profits, then something isn't right. I did some more backtesting over the weekend and realised that the Shift -1 setting gives false results. This attempt to predict the future by shifting the signal one bar backwards just does not work, very sadly, if only it did .

This morning I placed three different arrow signals on some 1-minute charts so I could speed up my observations. They all behave differently. Two of them sometimes disappear AFTER the current candle has closed if the EMAs go back up/down on the next candle. So what we see on the charts during backtesting is only those signals that did not disappear, in other words, the ones that worked. The third one seems to behave predictably and dependably, but I still need to watch it a bit more before I make a decision about using it.

So apologies again for misleading you. I should have known better.
 
 
  • Post #53
  • Quote
  • Nov 28, 2022 4:29am Nov 28, 2022 4:29am
  •  Hopper
  • | Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Member | 3 Posts
This is nearly the exact system I use. A simple 8 & 20 ema cross with the exception of a 200ema to determine trend direction. I then simply wait for engulfing and inside bars early after the crossover. Stop on the other side of the signal bar. TP I generally set for the nearest support or resistance. Aim for a minimum 2:1
Keeps things pretty simple. Good luck to you all!
 
 
  • Post #54
  • Quote
  • Nov 28, 2022 7:43am Nov 28, 2022 7:43am
  •  AlistairC
  • | Joined Nov 2022 | Status: Member | 202 Posts
Quoting Hopper
Disliked
This is nearly the exact system I use. A simple 8 & 20 ema cross with the exception of a 200ema to determine trend direction. I then simply wait for engulfing and inside bars early after the crossover. Stop on the other side of the signal bar. TP I generally set for the nearest support or resistance. Aim for a minimum 2:1 Keeps things pretty simple. Good luck to you all!
Ignored
That's interesting. Could you post a chart marked up to show how you use it?
 
 
  • Post #55
  • Quote
  • Nov 28, 2022 2:45pm Nov 28, 2022 2:45pm
  •  neilpryde
  • | Joined Dec 2009 | Status: Member | 46 Posts
Hi,
What do you think abut this setup? A think it was perfect. Unfortunatly I missed itt.
Hope next time I will be next to my computer. I have a full time job so it is not so easy to be next to my computer evrey 4 hours.
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  • Post #56
  • Quote
  • Nov 28, 2022 2:47pm Nov 28, 2022 2:47pm
  •  neilpryde
  • | Joined Dec 2009 | Status: Member | 46 Posts
Sorry, I forgot to mention: AUD/USD, 4h chart
 
 
  • Post #57
  • Quote
  • Nov 28, 2022 2:51pm Nov 28, 2022 2:51pm
  •  neilpryde
  • | Joined Dec 2009 | Status: Member | 46 Posts
An other perfect setup. Also missed. GBP/JPY, 4 h. After the pull back thers was the setup !
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  • Post #58
  • Quote
  • Nov 29, 2022 7:11am Nov 29, 2022 7:11am
  •  Hopper
  • | Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Member | 3 Posts
Quoting AlistairC
Disliked
{quote} That's interesting. Could you post a chart marked up to show how you use it?
Ignored
Here is a quick visual of what I look for. As you have mentioned earlier, the best entries are early after the ema cross. I only trade the 4hr, but will work on any timeframe- the sign of a decent strategy imo.
When they come off, they can provide some pretty decent winners.
All the best
Hopper
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  • Post #59
  • Quote
  • Nov 29, 2022 12:42pm Nov 29, 2022 12:42pm
  •  AlistairC
  • | Joined Nov 2022 | Status: Member | 202 Posts
Quoting neilpryde
Disliked
Hi, What do you think abut this setup? A think it was perfect. Unfortunatly I missed itt. Hope next time I will be next to my computer. I have a full time job so it is not so easy to be next to my computer evrey 4 hours. {image}
Ignored
Hi neilpryde

It does look good, although I think you are using Heiken Ashi candles, so it's difficult for me to assess it without also looking at my own charts. As we are trading "naked MAs" could you remove the other indicators you are using when you post here? The purpose of this thread is to improve our skills using just MAs on their own.

I didn't enter this because the daily chart shows a clear uptrend and I didn't want to be caught going short when price might actually be long on the next higher time frame. As things turned out, from the entry level price dropped 53 pips so I would have been stopped out at breakeven by the EA I have running on a VPS that is set to move to B/E at 50 pips. It will be interesting to watch this and see how far down it does go.

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  • Post #60
  • Quote
  • Edited 1:29pm Nov 29, 2022 1:10pm | Edited 1:29pm
  •  AlistairC
  • | Joined Nov 2022 | Status: Member | 202 Posts
I'm enjoying trading with just the MAs, no indicators. I feel free of clutter and confusion and it seems to be helping. Yesterday I made 0.66% profit, so it was an OK day, but today, if a trade I still have running can move the last 10 or so pips to the target, I will bank 3.4% growth on account balance for the day [DONE ]. I'm very happy with that!

I've known for a long time that this is the way I should be trading, but I keep being pulled towards other systems, or adding things to the EMAs to try to improve them. This public forum is helping me stay focussed, thank you for that quality control you are providing!
 
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