every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
Volman meets Burke or My journey with PA
- #982
- Nov 20, 2022 6:33am Nov 20, 2022 6:33am
- Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Stop Pretending | 5,275 Posts
The lonely moving average. Much misunderstood. Often misaligned.
The MA dates back to the late 1800s most likely, with a firmer date of 1901:
In 1909 G. U. Yule (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 72, 721-730) described the “instantaneous averages” R. H. Hooker calculated in 1901 as “moving-averages.” Yule did not adopt the term in his textbook, but it entered circulation through W. I. King’s Elements of Statistical Method (1912).
Earliest Known Uses of Some of the Words of Mathematics (M) (tripod.com)
And of course, it was quickly adapted to financial instruments and trading as the use of charts and the data derived from them grew. A brief bit of history.
I learned a system (in its original form before it came to FF) that used many moving averages. It is one of the things I know. While learning and using that system I assimilated PA into my subconscious through watching the charts. Never, at the time, thinking to incorporate the theory as I am now.
That theory is how price moves in reference to the MA. Somewhat similar to using levels and other points of interest, only the MA takes a much more vibrant role. This brings me to how I define what a moving average is in relation to how I use it to trade. I started using the MA in this method because I was not very pleased with a lot of my entries and was barely at breakeven.
I am using the 20 period ema as per Brooks. The MA to me represents a projection of where price should be. This makes it a form of equilibrium. I look at the markets a lot through this lens. Setting aside what actually causes price to move, the market is in a constant state of flux as it attempts to reach that point of equilibrium. The concept of chaos theory fits financial markets perfectly.
the branch of mathematics that deals with complex systems whose behavior is highly sensitive to slight changes in conditions, so that small alterations can give rise to strikingly great consequences.
The concept of fractals comes from chaos theory. Also, the concept of order in apparent randomness comes from chaos theory. Both describe financial markets very well.
And that is why there are MAs on my charts. I view MAs as dynamic points of equilibrium that price is always moving towards and away from.
the 1-minute chart has the 20-period ema. A 100-period ema that represents the 5-minute MA. And a 300-period MA that represents the 15-minute MA.
The 5-minute chart is used to see the structure of the market as that was an issue I had when using only the 1-minute. It has a 20-period MA and a 60-period MA that represents the 15-minute MA.
Some random introductory musings on the method I am creating. The MAs are nothing more than an added framework that I understand in the process of reading PA. It all still comes down to the price action in the end. And how that price action pans out at the MAs, just as you would monitor it at other points of interest. In future posts I will go over the many things I have promised up to this point. Since this is the finalizing of a method it will be easier.
The MA dates back to the late 1800s most likely, with a firmer date of 1901:
In 1909 G. U. Yule (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 72, 721-730) described the “instantaneous averages” R. H. Hooker calculated in 1901 as “moving-averages.” Yule did not adopt the term in his textbook, but it entered circulation through W. I. King’s Elements of Statistical Method (1912).
Earliest Known Uses of Some of the Words of Mathematics (M) (tripod.com)
And of course, it was quickly adapted to financial instruments and trading as the use of charts and the data derived from them grew. A brief bit of history.
I learned a system (in its original form before it came to FF) that used many moving averages. It is one of the things I know. While learning and using that system I assimilated PA into my subconscious through watching the charts. Never, at the time, thinking to incorporate the theory as I am now.
That theory is how price moves in reference to the MA. Somewhat similar to using levels and other points of interest, only the MA takes a much more vibrant role. This brings me to how I define what a moving average is in relation to how I use it to trade. I started using the MA in this method because I was not very pleased with a lot of my entries and was barely at breakeven.
I am using the 20 period ema as per Brooks. The MA to me represents a projection of where price should be. This makes it a form of equilibrium. I look at the markets a lot through this lens. Setting aside what actually causes price to move, the market is in a constant state of flux as it attempts to reach that point of equilibrium. The concept of chaos theory fits financial markets perfectly.
the branch of mathematics that deals with complex systems whose behavior is highly sensitive to slight changes in conditions, so that small alterations can give rise to strikingly great consequences.
The concept of fractals comes from chaos theory. Also, the concept of order in apparent randomness comes from chaos theory. Both describe financial markets very well.
And that is why there are MAs on my charts. I view MAs as dynamic points of equilibrium that price is always moving towards and away from.
the 1-minute chart has the 20-period ema. A 100-period ema that represents the 5-minute MA. And a 300-period MA that represents the 15-minute MA.
The 5-minute chart is used to see the structure of the market as that was an issue I had when using only the 1-minute. It has a 20-period MA and a 60-period MA that represents the 15-minute MA.
Some random introductory musings on the method I am creating. The MAs are nothing more than an added framework that I understand in the process of reading PA. It all still comes down to the price action in the end. And how that price action pans out at the MAs, just as you would monitor it at other points of interest. In future posts I will go over the many things I have promised up to this point. Since this is the finalizing of a method it will be easier.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
- #984
- Nov 20, 2022 2:00pm Nov 20, 2022 2:00pm
- Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Stop Pretending | 5,275 Posts
Hi Mark, Our Journeys are a joy. Wishing you a great Journey. Love your work pal. Pete
As everything it's a work in progress
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
- #985
- Nov 20, 2022 2:35pm Nov 20, 2022 2:35pm
- Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Stop Pretending | 5,275 Posts
My method is essentially everything that I understand put together. The best description would be the Goulash method. 
Levels as laid out in SBurke's method (along with numerous others as there is nothing new under the sun), MAs from my previous trading incarnation, the main MA period and in the process of learning ABrook's take on intraday trading, some of BVolman's looking for the breakout from a range or retrace. And untold bits and pieces picked up here and there. I have settled into only two instruments, the GBP_USD and the micro e-mini S&P500. They both trade basically the same (these two look identical) as all instruments that have decent liquidity do. I stick with only two because I am a short term trader and I have come to the conclusion that to be more efficient I need to focus on very little (The muti tasking thing is BS if you want to have decent outcomes. If you just want the same old mediocrity then continue on).
Enough of the drivel...
This is the best order to describe how my charts are set up.
1- The first thing is the session boxes and the times. I have changed mine from SBs. Asia is from 00:05 GMT to 03:55 GMT. 4 hours. The time and extension are mostly for my benefit. The start time is after the spreads return to normal and the time extension is because I sometimes trade the Asian session. Other than my session box and the Tokyo Stock Exchange morning times being the same I do not give much credence to the overnight movements of the TSE as I would during the US session and the NYSE.
The London session is the same, from 07:00 GMT to 09:55 GMT. I do not trade this session, but its boundaries are the basis for the US session. Still very important.
The US session is from 13:00 GMT to 16:55 GMT. I extended this session an hour to account for the London close. The NYSE open is 14:30 GMT.
2- The levels. There are two sets of levels. One is the price levels of the BRN00, RN50, and Q25 and Q75. The other set contains the Open for the current day, week, and month. The high and low for each of these and the previous day, week, and month. For the SP500 I also have the 16:00 NYSE close (21:00 GMT).
3- The moving averages. I am using the 20-period ema as per Al-B. I have multiples of this MA to represent the 5-minute MA and the 15-minute MA. These are just multiples of the MA based on time. M1 would have a 20, 100, and 300 ema while the M5 would have a 20 and 60 ema. These MAs work as dynamic S/R and as the price equilibrium for the particular time frame. [There will be examples of how I use all this soon.]
Levels as laid out in SBurke's method (along with numerous others as there is nothing new under the sun), MAs from my previous trading incarnation, the main MA period and in the process of learning ABrook's take on intraday trading, some of BVolman's looking for the breakout from a range or retrace. And untold bits and pieces picked up here and there. I have settled into only two instruments, the GBP_USD and the micro e-mini S&P500. They both trade basically the same (these two look identical) as all instruments that have decent liquidity do. I stick with only two because I am a short term trader and I have come to the conclusion that to be more efficient I need to focus on very little (The muti tasking thing is BS if you want to have decent outcomes. If you just want the same old mediocrity then continue on).
Enough of the drivel...
This is the best order to describe how my charts are set up.
1- The first thing is the session boxes and the times. I have changed mine from SBs. Asia is from 00:05 GMT to 03:55 GMT. 4 hours. The time and extension are mostly for my benefit. The start time is after the spreads return to normal and the time extension is because I sometimes trade the Asian session. Other than my session box and the Tokyo Stock Exchange morning times being the same I do not give much credence to the overnight movements of the TSE as I would during the US session and the NYSE.
The London session is the same, from 07:00 GMT to 09:55 GMT. I do not trade this session, but its boundaries are the basis for the US session. Still very important.
The US session is from 13:00 GMT to 16:55 GMT. I extended this session an hour to account for the London close. The NYSE open is 14:30 GMT.
2- The levels. There are two sets of levels. One is the price levels of the BRN00, RN50, and Q25 and Q75. The other set contains the Open for the current day, week, and month. The high and low for each of these and the previous day, week, and month. For the SP500 I also have the 16:00 NYSE close (21:00 GMT).
3- The moving averages. I am using the 20-period ema as per Al-B. I have multiples of this MA to represent the 5-minute MA and the 15-minute MA. These are just multiples of the MA based on time. M1 would have a 20, 100, and 300 ema while the M5 would have a 20 and 60 ema. These MAs work as dynamic S/R and as the price equilibrium for the particular time frame. [There will be examples of how I use all this soon.]
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
- #986
- Nov 20, 2022 4:57pm Nov 20, 2022 4:57pm
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Naked Chart Samurai | 3,480 Posts
The power of a simple horizontal line : (Which line??? mentioned many times in this thread 
)
refer to the EU, GU, and AU charts. The 1st-hour of the ASIA price was pushed away from the line and the 2nd hour was used to bring the price back to the line. Little pips but precise and repeatable setups.
) refer to the EU, GU, and AU charts. The 1st-hour of the ASIA price was pushed away from the line and the 2nd hour was used to bring the price back to the line. Little pips but precise and repeatable setups.
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
- #987
- Nov 20, 2022 5:03pm Nov 20, 2022 5:03pm
- Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Stop Pretending | 5,275 Posts
The power of a simple horizontal line : (Which line??? mentioned many times in this thread
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
- #988
- Nov 20, 2022 5:09pm Nov 20, 2022 5:09pm
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Naked Chart Samurai | 3,480 Posts
{quote} That is the secret sauce.
.
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
- #990
- Nov 20, 2022 5:56pm Nov 20, 2022 5:56pm
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Naked Chart Samurai | 3,480 Posts
They gotta fill up (again) lol. Even the Market Profilers can give us common folk clues (for entries AND exits). In the end we see our own lines (ma's also, do this function), just not all the time. Shabs' Structure Trading, line-break of line-retest-continue, all fits in with Wyckoff, all over the charts Here's the schematic again from shabs https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post14179182
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
- #991
- Nov 20, 2022 6:40pm Nov 20, 2022 6:40pm
- Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Stop Pretending | 5,275 Posts
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
- #992
- Nov 20, 2022 6:51pm Nov 20, 2022 6:51pm
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Naked Chart Samurai | 3,480 Posts
{quote} Seems a good bit of everything is based on his theories.
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
- #994
- Nov 20, 2022 7:27pm Nov 20, 2022 7:27pm
- Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Stop Pretending | 5,275 Posts
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
- #995
- Nov 20, 2022 8:44pm Nov 20, 2022 8:44pm
- Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Stop Pretending | 5,275 Posts
A quick example of why I do not overly concern myself with the "need" to always check higher time frames for S/R.
This is the HoW from last week, established on Tuesday. The high was 4051.00 or RN50.
When was price last at that point? The 13.Sep Funny thing though, when you go back to that date price is in the middle of a huge news bar. There is no specific point. And that is my point why I do not worry that much about "have to check the higher time frame".
This is the HoW from last week, established on Tuesday. The high was 4051.00 or RN50.
When was price last at that point? The 13.Sep Funny thing though, when you go back to that date price is in the middle of a huge news bar. There is no specific point. And that is my point why I do not worry that much about "have to check the higher time frame".
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
- #996
- Nov 20, 2022 8:45pm Nov 20, 2022 8:45pm
- Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Stop Pretending | 5,275 Posts
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
- #997
- Nov 20, 2022 8:50pm Nov 20, 2022 8:50pm
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Naked Chart Samurai | 3,480 Posts
A quick example of why I do not overly concern myself with the "need" to always check higher time frames for S/R. This is the HoW from last week, established on Tuesday. The high was 4051.00 or RN50. {image} When was price last at that point? The 13.Sep Funny thing though, when you go back to that date price is in the middle of a huge news bar. There is no specific point. And that is my point why I do not worry that much about "have to check the higher time frame". {image}
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
The power of a simple horizontal line : (Which line??? mentioned many times in this thread
Some days provide great setups. There's more to it than the open line but it is a part of the puzzle.
- #1,000
- Nov 20, 2022 9:48pm Nov 20, 2022 9:48pm
- Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Stop Pretending | 5,275 Posts
{quote} A VERY tradeable Chart with Ema's Mark, nice, are they the 20,100,300 ema's that would be on a 1MIN chart ?
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE