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How to make every trading week profitable

  • #41
  • Nov 12, 2022 5:43pm Nov 12, 2022 5:43pm
FX is not something that can be predicted and measured with your money,

bullshit for anyone who calculates certainty in % ,

you can collect as much profit as possible, but you will not be able to control it with math like you say

Most FF readers, including myself, are dreamers because of the many opportunities in fx

they trade with many accounts, and even on all pairs,

my experience so far with 1 MT4 (1 account) and 1 pair I still can't control it

because FX is not for us to control,

but for us to follow for the profit we can achieve,

Of course with continuous practice and determination we can collect the maximum possible profit,

but not with numbers in certainty

don't be hurt,

you dare to open threads and convey your ideas,

you also have to be prepared to be opposed
  • #42
  • Edited 6:34am Nov 13, 2022 4:50am | Edited 6:34am
Quoting Darwati
FX is not something that can be predicted and measured with your money, bullshit for anyone who calculates certainty in % , you can collect as much profit as possible, but you will not be able to control it with math like you say Most FF readers, including myself, are dreamers because of the many opportunities in fx they trade with many accounts, and even on all pairs, my experience so far with 1 MT4 (1 account) and 1 pair I still can't control it because FX is not for us to control, but for us to follow for the profit we can achieve, Of course...
I know you from the Grogol system haha.
Not trying to start a heated argument but yes I think calculating "certainty" (win rate, gain, etc.) can be done.. BUT, it is not an absolute base data to act from.
60% win rate during Q1 of 2022 will certainly be different from the rest of the year.
But this 60% win rate during Q1 will give us a good image of how our system will likely perform for the next quarter.
During Q2, you collect a new set of data.. and so on until the end of the year where you get that year worth of data.

So yeah, certainty measured in percentage can absolutely be used, but it's a dynamic data.
Hope I made it clear.
  • #43
  • Nov 13, 2022 5:32am Nov 13, 2022 5:32am
Yes. What makes even more dynamic is that everyone is different.

1) How many consecutive losses could you have
2) your average +R
3) your average win rate

If you don’t know these 3 things, you are kinda flying blind.

The trading probabilities must factor in above 3 things.

Otherwise, how to determine risk per trade, per day, per week? How to determine when to lower risk, or increase it.

And it is also dynamic in terms our mental state. We can easily have bad or good day. But we should have a pretty good idea of what our average numbers are with above 3 things. If we don’t know, then we don’t really have any basis for assuming we even have an edge to prove successful and we are just gambling.

As example, I know my averages are:
1) worst case could be 5-10 on average
2) average is 4-7
3) average is 20-30%

So I can base many trading decisions on this. For example, if I have more than average consecutive losses, I know I need to adjust my approach, maybe I am misreading the PA or something else I’m doing wrong.

I can also determine risk, lot size to trade and also know if the trade is worth the risk. If I don’t see at least a +5R target, it’s not a good trade for me as I want to at least be average with TP target on every trade.
  • #44
  • Nov 13, 2022 6:48am Nov 13, 2022 6:48am
Quoting Darwati
FX is not something that can be predicted and measured with your money, bullshit for anyone who calculates certainty in % , you can collect as much profit as possible, but you will not be able to control it with math like you say Most FF readers, including myself, are dreamers because of the many opportunities in fx they trade with many accounts, and even on all pairs, my experience so far with 1 MT4 (1 account) and 1 pair I still can't control it because FX is not for us to control, but for us to follow for the profit we can achieve, Of course...
The only thing we can control is risk. Everything else is based on probabilities. With the proper approach those probabilities will work in our favor.
  • #45
  • Nov 13, 2022 8:31am Nov 13, 2022 8:31am
Quoting Darwati
FX is not something that can be predicted and measured with your money, bullshit for anyone who calculates certainty in % , you can collect as much profit as possible, but you will not be able to control it with math like you say Most FF readers, including myself, are dreamers because of the many opportunities in fx they trade with many accounts, and even on all pairs, my experience so far with 1 MT4 (1 account) and 1 pair I still can't control it because FX is not for us to control, but for us to follow for the profit we can achieve, Of course...
Have anybody said that we know exactly how much we will profit? Why are you spitting out this negativity. If you don't like the thread then you are most welcome to find another thread that you like better.

You cannot control FX - but you surely can controle yourself. When will you take a trade and how much will you risk and what is your target. Having experiance, plans and tools you will be better at finding the right trades. This is what makes some people winners and other loosers. So don't say that you cannot control FX. Because You can by taking the trades that are most likely to gain profit. No, you will not succeed every time, but mathematics based on your results are a very fine tool to foresee future results.
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #46
  • Edited 9:48am Nov 13, 2022 9:15am | Edited 9:48am
Quoting Darwati
FX is not something that can be predicted and measured with your money, bullshit for anyone who calculates certainty in % , you can collect as much profit as possible, but you will not be able to control it with math like you say Most FF readers, including myself, are dreamers because of the many opportunities in fx they trade with many accounts, and even on all pairs, my experience so far with 1 MT4 (1 account) and 1 pair I still can't control it because FX is not for us to control, but for us to follow for the profit we can achieve, Of course...
Then let us talk math. You take a trade. Put the result at a spread sheet. Take one more trade. Take the average of the profit. Well - now you have your very first forecast. Most unuseable because of only 2 cases. But go on. Over time the cases will grow and you will get a result that you may rely on. Your daily results might differ a lot from the average, but you can foresee the average of the coming n trades. You can make a nice XY diagram over the results.

Or you may even make an uncertainty curve like the picture below. On the Y-axis you could have percentage gain. And the uncertainty is Max-2*Ro / Max+2*Ro. Normally you would say that the far right/left cases must lie within 2% of the total amount of cases.

X axis is the percentage profit and Y axic is the counts. The µ value is the percentage where you have the biggest number of cases in the batch.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 27 KB
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #47
  • Nov 13, 2022 9:31am Nov 13, 2022 9:31am
Yeah, that’s the idea. And yes you could build a tool for analysis and customize it how you want.

I’ve built some relatively simple ones myself using MS excel.

But for the main analysis to get the most important numbers and percentages, I currently use the trade explorer provided here at FF.

There is also myFXbook I’ve used before. And depending on your platform, OS, and broker, they might provide something as well.
  • #48
  • Nov 13, 2022 9:50am Nov 13, 2022 9:50am
Taking one of my accounts current stats as an example, my max consecutive loss rate is high, and my win rate is below average.

My +R rate is above my average, and I’m in profit. But max loss rate and win rate tells me I’m being a bit sloppy and need to clean some things up.
  • #49
  • Nov 13, 2022 9:52am Nov 13, 2022 9:52am
Quoting benaiah
Yeah, that’s the idea. And yes you could build a tool for analysis and customize it how you want. I’ve built some relatively simple ones myself using MS excel. But for the main analysis to get the most important numbers and percentages, I currently use the trade explorer provided here at FF. There is also myFXbook I’ve used before. And depending on your platform, OS, and broker, they might provide something as well.
And I only use Excel. The post above was just to show, that math can be very usefull in trading Forex.
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #50
  • Nov 13, 2022 9:52am Nov 13, 2022 9:52am
Another example of the advantage of multiple accounts is you can compare stats between them, and when the stats are better on one verses another, it could reveal something that works or doesn’t work for you and help you improve.
  • #51
  • Nov 13, 2022 9:53am Nov 13, 2022 9:53am
Quoting benaiah
Another example of the advantage of multiple accounts is you can compare stats between them, and when the stats are better on one verses another, it could reveal something that works or doesn’t work for you and help you improve.
Very spot on!!
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #52
  • Nov 13, 2022 9:54am Nov 13, 2022 9:54am
Quoting RiskFighter
{quote} And I only use Excel. The post above was just to show, that math can be very usefull in trading Forex.
oh, sorry, I took it as a question. So you are probably more advanced than I am
  • #53
  • Nov 13, 2022 9:55am Nov 13, 2022 9:55am
Quoting benaiah
{quote} oh, sorry, I took it as a question. So you are probably more advanced than I am
he he!
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #54
  • Nov 13, 2022 10:17am Nov 13, 2022 10:17am
Regarding the multi-account approach in general…

Multiple ways of approach, and an endless learning/reward potential.

Here is one way.

Work toward having 5 funded accounts (assuming you trade M-F).

Trade each account only one day per week.

This approach would implement some structure/discipline by nature of only trading 1 account each day.

And also probably good to assign each account to a particular day/time.
  • #55
  • Nov 13, 2022 10:49am Nov 13, 2022 10:49am
Quoting benaiah
Regarding the multi-account approach in general… Multiple ways of approach, and an endless learning/reward potential. Here is one way. Work toward having 5 funded accounts (assuming you trade M-F). Trade each account only one day per week. This approach would implement some structure/discipline by nature of only trading 1 account each day. And also probably good to assign each account to a particular day/time.

hello,

I am not allowed to create a thread.

I have a question for you, and any one else who claims to be consistently profitable:

if you are consistent profitable, week after week, month on month and Yoy, what is stopping you from exponentially increasing wealth?

surely if you are profitable , without fail , every week, you must now be a multi billionaire?

im sorry if this seem facetious, it’s a genuine question. Why aren’t you trading 100lots? Or 1000?



I’ve been dedicated to trading now for just over 2 years. For the last year, I’ve been breakeven. It’s really difficult to keep going and I tell myself they’re must be people who have found a way…but then if that’s the case , what stops you making a million a week? It’s just another couple “0”s where the lot size is, right?

If you check out one of those compounding calculations, you will see what I mean.

If there is a consistently profitable trader who can answer this I’d love to know?
  • #56
  • Nov 13, 2022 2:53pm Nov 13, 2022 2:53pm
Quoting PippityPips
{quote} hello, I am not allowed to create a thread. I have a question for you, and any one else who claims to be consistently profitable: if you are consistent profitable, week after week, month on month and Yoy, what is stopping you from exponentially increasing wealth? surely if you are profitable , without fail , every week, you must now be a multi billionaire? im sorry if this seem facetious, it’s a genuine question. Why aren’t you trading 100lots? Or 1000? I’ve been dedicated to trading now for just over 2 years. For the last year, I’ve been...

It appears from your questions, you have not read this thread from the beginning. All your questions have already been answered in prior posts. If anyone has a different answer they want to present, they can start their own thread and answer there.
  • #57
  • Nov 13, 2022 4:31pm Nov 13, 2022 4:31pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Why 4%? Why not 4.2%? Why not 0.3%? Do you know how much you have to earn back if you have 4% loss? Do you understand that you have to earn MORE than that number? Much more. Do you know how many "tries" you have with your 4% loss and where is the point of no return then? I think not. Because if you say that that mean you don't understand basic math.{quote}
Quoting benaiah
I said “for me”, it is 4%. For someone else it might be more or less. My max DD is 12% on each account. If I only allow 4% daily DD, that gives me 2 additional days to recover. And since I can easily Gain 4-12% on a single trade and risk a tiny fraction of 1% on each trade, it is plenty of room for recovering 4%
I think Ryu means that if you lose 4%, then you need to earn 4.1667% to recover. For 50% is 100%, etc.
  • #58
  • Nov 13, 2022 4:44pm Nov 13, 2022 4:44pm
Quoting Viktor
{quote} {quote} I think Ryu means that if you lose 4%, then you need to earn 4.1667% to recover. For 50% is 100%, etc.
You want bring up ryuryu? You can join him on my blocked list. Bye
  • #59
  • Nov 21, 2022 10:10pm Nov 21, 2022 10:10pm
Has this thread ended?
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #60
  • Edited 10:07am Nov 22, 2022 9:20am | Edited 10:07am
Quoting RiskFighter
Has this thread ended?
Heres a funny story.

After I started a 100k eval I made a mistake and selected a 5K live account thinking I was trading the 100k eval, and ended up in a trade with 20x my acceptable risk.

That mistake led to a 6% overall DD. However because it wasn’t my only account, I wasn’t really effected by it and today recovered that live account which is now in the green 1.5%

I had one 21R trade and added 2 positions as it moved in my favor, leading to an overall 7.5% gain on the setup. I don’t think I would have had the mindset to manage that trade setup, with the 2 added positions if it was my only account. Edit: and I also did not over-leverage and kept risk well within my acceptable range.
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