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  • #160,401
  • Nov 4, 2022 1:52am Nov 4, 2022 1:52am
A first decision is due at the 0.9795/0.9810 area. Below 0.9732 and below 0.9707. Above, the next target range is 0.9839 to 0.9853.
The most important date of the day is likely to be the publication of the US jobs report at 1:30 p.m. The market is currently assuming that the number of newly created jobs will fall to 190,000.
carpe noctem
  • #160,402
  • Nov 4, 2022 1:56am Nov 4, 2022 1:56am
Let's see where EURUSD stands as we enter another NFP today.

Since Wed, 75 bps has become the norm. It looks likely for Fed to raise 75 bps in Dec, and for ECB to do the same too.

Price had been falling, and there's always expectation where it could fall to. Let's just say 0.953-ish, the previous low. Not saying it'll go there, but market could push it there if it wants to. I'm looking for a consolidation arounnd my 323% and 361% Fib band in coming weeks, after NFP. If NFP disappoints, unlikely though, then an upper band is probably where price could linger around for days.

There were spikes (in arrows) that propel the bullish and bearish trends for past two weeks. Bullish ones don't last though.. Could be the same for bearish one registered during FOMC. We'll see.

Just out of curiosity, who in the market spreaded the rumour that Fed was to pivot? I don't see why they need to. They could raise rates all the way into a recession, and then cut rates as quickly as they raised them. Slowing down, say to 50 bps then 25 bps, may be in 2023. Stopping rate hikes? Pipe dream at this stage.
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  • #160,403
  • Nov 4, 2022 2:12am Nov 4, 2022 2:12am
Quoting cchin
Let's see where EURUSD stands as we enter another NFP today. Since Wed, 75 bps has become the norm. It looks likely for Fed to raise 75 bps in Dec, and for ECB to do the same too. Price had been falling, and there's always expectation where it could fall to. Let's just say 0.953-ish, the previous low. Not saying it'll go there, but market could push it there if it wants to. I'm looking for a consolidation arounnd my 323% and 361% Fib band in coming weeks, after NFP. If NFP disappoints, unlikely though, then an upper band is probably where price...
Really like your insights and this in a proper quality. It shines out of all the fancy posts. So focused to the thema. Nowadays many must turned in laughs. The operator and few others here have also on the point ideas.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #160,404
  • Nov 4, 2022 2:19am Nov 4, 2022 2:19am
Today the price may range inside this area with blue until the NFP release later. The volatility is 104 pips.

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Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #160,405
  • Nov 4, 2022 2:30am Nov 4, 2022 2:30am
Quoting cchin
Let's see where EURUSD stands as we enter another NFP today. Since Wed, 75 bps has become the norm. It looks likely for Fed to raise 75 bps in Dec, and for ECB to do the same too. Price had been falling, and there's always expectation where it could fall to. Let's just say 0.953-ish, the previous low. Not saying it'll go there, but market could push it there if it wants to. I'm looking for a consolidation arounnd my 323% and 361% Fib band in coming weeks, after NFP. If NFP disappoints, unlikely though, then an upper band is probably where price...
whoever is losing the margins spreaded the rumor .
  • #160,406
  • Nov 4, 2022 3:46am Nov 4, 2022 3:46am
Meanwhile, on M30..

Today I keep it simple: Bears are resting and catching a breath... Bulls will try to make use of this opportunity!

Based on M30, previous resistance turned into support and I keep buying dips as long as we are above 0.9769.... Target is probably 0.9826 area...

*The thin black trendline on chart is sort of a bottleneck for now.. I think bulls will break it soon.. Let's see..

Happy NFP day to all
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #160,407
  • Nov 4, 2022 3:56am Nov 4, 2022 3:56am
Quoting MichaelSch
{quote} Really like your insights and this in a proper quality. It shines out of all the fancy posts. So focused to the thema. Nowadays many must turned in laughs. The operator and few others here have also on the point ideas.
I was thinking the same.. @cchin is truly a disciplined member.. I highly appreciate the quality of his posts..

Best wishes
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #160,408
  • Nov 4, 2022 3:57am Nov 4, 2022 3:57am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Meanwhile, on M30.. Today I keep it simple: Bears are resting and catching a breath... Bulls will try to make use of this opportunity! Based on M30, previous resistance turned into support and I keep buying dips as long as we are above 0.9769.... Target is probably 0.9826 area... *The thin black trendline on chart is sort of a bottleneck for now.. I think bulls will break it soon.. Let's see.. Happy NFP day to all {image}

Yes looking at Daily Pivot 9772 still it is above that level Buy is good but H4 close below that level i will sell and target 9706
PaRaM
  • #160,409
  • Nov 4, 2022 3:59am Nov 4, 2022 3:59am
Hello folks. I am still keeping my yesterday's short alive. I guess there's been some market intervention again, and suppose the price will fall towards .9700.
  • #160,410
  • Nov 4, 2022 3:59am Nov 4, 2022 3:59am
Today is NFP DAY!!!
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  • #160,411
  • Nov 4, 2022 4:17am Nov 4, 2022 4:17am
I share some big expiries to watch today - only the biggest:

0.9790-00 1.62b
0.9825-35 902m
0.9900 1.28b
1.0000 2.48b

More:

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fx-opt...t-202211040849
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  • #160,412
  • Nov 4, 2022 4:18am Nov 4, 2022 4:18am
H4 Outlook

  1. Today I didn't want to draw a classic channel because I am noticing that different dynamics are at play... The long wick from that recent candle is distorting the general picture... Keep that in mind!
  2. The thick black line is the rough pivot.. Price doesn't care much to rise above or drop below it.. Therefore, it would be wise to see 0.9780 as breakable.. Bulls can easily reach above it without ending the bearish trend!
  3. During NFP, if momentum rises up, the only levels I care are the nearby levels: 0.9840 for bulls and 0.9738 for bears...
  4. For bears, I also have 0.9718 floor level in case momentum comes out a little bit stronger than I anticipate...
  5. The overall trend is obviously still bearish BUT please notice how my GREEN/RED wma line has flattened... It could reflect choppiness! So we must beware... I will stick to my M30 plans..

I hope it helps

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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #160,413
  • Nov 4, 2022 4:40am Nov 4, 2022 4:40am
perpetually shorting while in the right lane
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always shorting eu All Time Profit: $1,476
  • #160,414
  • Nov 4, 2022 4:45am Nov 4, 2022 4:45am
This is what I see on the High TimeFrame but doesn't match the fundamental data...
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  • #160,415
  • Edited 7:01am Nov 4, 2022 5:15am | Edited 7:01am
Sell Grid 0.9839 - 0.9834
edites
Holy Betting Grail strategy
  • #160,416
  • Nov 4, 2022 5:52am Nov 4, 2022 5:52am
Quoting fxcontest
Sell Grid 0.9865 - 0.9860
I have 9815 as the next major level.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #160,417
  • Nov 4, 2022 6:03am Nov 4, 2022 6:03am
Quoting yvestrcz
Hello folks. I am still keeping my yesterday's short alive. I guess there's been some market intervention again, and suppose the price will fall towards .9700.
Hmmm, almost got stopped just like yesterday, but it is not over till the fat lady sings.
  • #160,418
  • Nov 4, 2022 6:27am Nov 4, 2022 6:27am
Quoting johncen
{quote} I have 9815 as the next major level.
have missed my tp by a few pips. Learnt from the mistakes from earlier this week, protect my profit. Closing most of my longs. Remaining sl @ be now sot back and relax
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #160,419
  • Nov 4, 2022 6:28am Nov 4, 2022 6:28am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
Today the price may range inside this area with blue until the NFP release later. The volatility is 104 pips. {image}
That bounce above 0.9796 is not too strong and price is coming back to test the range. I most believe we will see a drop at the NFP but the drop may also come later from around 0.9840. 0.9786 is the decision point at the 15 min chart.

Quoting johncen
{quote} have missed my tp by a few pips. Learnt from the mistakes from earlier this week, protect my profit. Closing most of my longs. Remaining sl @ be now sot back and relax
Thats the spirit, well done!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #160,420
  • Nov 4, 2022 6:33am Nov 4, 2022 6:33am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Thats the spirit, well done!
Thank you my friend, have been too greedy during Fed. Give away 100pips of profit.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
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