Volman meets Burke or My journey with PA

I have been working on trading the MES during the Asian period (not just the session). This is my evening, roughly 6 pm to 10 pm/midnight. For the most part the moves are slower. Granted the range is often not very large, but with tight MM it is no problem. Spread is only 0.25/0.50. One tick, the smallest unit, is 0.25 A point is 4 ticks. The value of the micro future is $1.25/tick or $5/point.

What kept me from this was I was under the assumption that there was not enough liquidity during that time. If you have an assumption, investigate it before giving validity. I am not talking about volume to be quant manipulated. Just actual volume of sufficient size. Since I trade at such a small level, the amount of volume is sufficient enough that someone will take the other side.

Just last night (morning or afternoon) there were enough entries to give about 40 points. The magic number. Does it give 40 points every day at that time. No. Does it give sufficient points on a regular basis to be worthwhile? Oh yeah.

I have taken SBs mantra and made it my own when trading - Repeatable. Scalable.

The entire purpose of all this is to identify repeatable entries that can become scalable in trade size.

I have mentioned that the MES has the potential to be a cash machine. I am going to tickle the greed a bit (this becomes a completely separate discussion, especially since the purpose of trading is to make money in the first place).

Need to scale up to 5 contracts. This should be easily done. That results is $25/point. At 40 points = $1000.

That should be easily doable (or close to it) on a regular basis during that time period.

I admit I have all over the place with time to trade. When you are new to a method as I am to PA trading you need to find where you fit. Slower market moves at this point are what I need the most as I continue my studies and trading all at the same time. In due course I plan to figure out how Al Brooks does his thing. This is the main rabbit hole I have chosen. So far it has been an enjoyable learning experience. I want to make it a combination of learning and earning.

I swear I have seen that phrase on a billboard somewhere.

I sometimes wonder if Al Brookes is into "Momentum" trading when he talks of inside, inside bars etc. You often see him point to a down bar and drop an entry order under it to pick up a couple of points caused by momentum. Does he mention swing trading at all?

I have promised this a few times and not delivered to any satisfaction. I will be posting what I look for when I sit down to trade. It is very simplistic. It may or may not suit anyone else. I will have something by the end of the weekend.

To learn more about (sound like a commercial) the various futures instruments offered check out the CME.

He does. It is not his main focus.

The 3 volume set is easier to read. Still dry. Will need to watch some videos of him trading. The purpose is to try and learn how price moves bar to bar or at least as much as I can.

There was one good entry today on the MESZ22

Perhaps I should have stayed out. Finished for the day.
Made small trades via channel ( tiny yellow rectangles) but missed Stacey Burke Bottoms/Tops/Pin through high of day which would have been more rewarding. Shows I am still having mixed fortunes trying to combine the two approaches. One presses on however.

Yes it was
See my post above.
I kin missed it

That is a challenge right there. I may give it a shot after I stabilize my stuff. Always up for a challenge.

The GBP_USD entry for today.

Getting the entries is a major part of my method. Can't be too shy. Only in the middle. Do not trade in the matrix. Unless you get good at scalping.

Just those two trades 35 points MES 45 pips GU

edit: and those are very repeatable entries

One Minute MindSet ReSet (good branding)

Yours or mine ?

Mine. They could be yours.

Both good points for discussion, Mark. Real discussion.

And while I love maths, when it is only used to throw a blanket over the whole shebang which then just glorifies the largest data profile (smart, correct use)
BUT often then ignores the smallest data profile (imho, incorrect use). Of course no one wants to discuss this impartially as then set in concrete maths minds
can implode.

While I cannot-will not do this anymore, but when casino's first arrived in Australia (putting another dent in the attractiveness of the masses from my dear old horseracing) I would frequent them and play blackjack in the most simplistic version of card counting I could employ.

But I was attracted to the Roulette table. Especially AFTER I read somewhere the inventor of that Wheel, anecdotally, suicided after being unable to find a solution to winning at his own invention. Shows us an interesting insight into the minds of gamblers maybe (OR maths whizzes ) if true.


In my attraction I found from just pure observation that players at the wheel had what I can only conlude as their favourite numbers.

I won't go into the psychology of that as I don't know the reason BUT then I observed one strange thing. To use that observation somehow was SO time consuming AND it then took away the simple escape pleasure lol of just using roulette as entertainment, so it was unsustainable for me.

After that first observation (punters with favourite numbers) I THEN noticed that the Casinos themselves may have observed this also and took measures to alleviate a cut into their overall profits, as they were ALWAYS going the be the overal profiter (mathematically) but just not always as you alluded to with such things as hot or cold tables.

My observation was that the physicality of how the croupier spun the ball in reverse to drop into the wheel within a period of their time running their wheel had the ball falling into 'repeateable" SECTORS on the wheel.

As the wheel does not have continuous numbers like 1-2-3-4 (forget the red/black aspect) you could not just split consecutive numbers (tho with 28/29 you could).
So once you could memorise (casinos for some reason dont like to see people pull out pieces of paper from their pockets hahaaa) these SECTORS might allow certain croupiers to be followed on "alternate" spins with a greater chance than maths probability would allow to have the ball maybe land in one of those sectors
(I had 5-7 number sequence sectors in my head). And 35/1 is a big payout so it was a worthwhile opportunity IF the croupier was "in the zone".

Which later I realised was the likely reason why the House switched croupiers during periods of 'hot runs' (ie above the average) by the punters at one particular wheel.

Why so. Who knows, but in the end I assumed that towards the end of a session for that croupier they just got lazy or tired and couldn't be bothered mixing up the dynamics of their arms & wrissts to throw the ball in a different arc or velocity on each separate & subsequent spin. But for a period in there session you COULD beat the house. NOT from maths of course but by youself AND your OWN observations.

This all but dissapeared of course when the casinos introduced the additon of a mind-numbing banal existance of a Computer Screen Generated Wheel Spin


A quiet day for me ahead, I guess, with all the tentative timing announcements of the BoJ stuff.
All the best, I might sneak out and replenish with some VitD sunshine.

(we can revisit entries later should you wish)

DAX UPDATE

Good day Pete (7:46 pm Central Time US (Chicago time zone. Hell no I do NOT live in Sh!tcago.).

First let me say that I would never play roulette without a live dealer nor play craps without live dice throws.

Even though the long term is a loser, short term can be beat. With the best odds in roulette being 48.65% for the European table and 47.37% for the American table (see they always take advantage of us yanks ). For craps the best odds are 48.59% or something of that sort.

They replace the ball spinner because of the nature of randomness in that when a streak starts to go against you it could go for an undefined period. To stop this potential occurrence the casino changes out ball spinners. Anything to keep the edge.

Craps is different in its hot warm and cold tables. These are a result of the individuals at the table. Craps is a hands-on game in that the players throw the dice. This is a random roll to determine a number from a defined range. What betting method you use becomes determinant on the types of rolls that come up, which is how you determine the level (hot, warm, cold). If that comes across as convoluted it is not meant to be.

Games with defined ranges for the outcome, but with random chance on any given turn. You use probabilities to determine what the most possible outcome will be. One would think the maths folks would be all over this.

I use something similar in my trading. I look for "patterns" with what I think (believe) have a higher probability to be profitable. There is no definitive proof either way to know if this is valid. My experience to this point is that there is validity to my hypothesis and that I need to continue with my work.

Until next time Take care

Hi Mark,

Brilliant, great post pal.

Some maths guys should be all over it, but they will look at large numbers (the largest) to obtain edge and may therefore miss the opportunities hidden inside the
small number assessments, I call it the here & now and why if using an MA the Linear Weighted helps more (well imo, thats what I compare on a 1hr to 1dy chart).

I use something similar in my trading also, and more from observing the craps shooters themselves instead of mathematically enumerating the amount of times they have or haven't rolled a 7 for example.

Such wonderful discussions are buried in amongst a lot of these off-the-cuff chats that turn up (unnanounced lol) in threads, by surprise sometimes.

All the best pal.

I remember Chicago as the home of music and the modern BLUES.
Calling it Blues Town now clearly has another meaning again

Chicago memory ...
When my brother graduated from high school , for some reason we decided to take a trip to Chicago. I am 2 years older. We took the train from St. Paul. Enjoyed several days of sightseeing all over the city, going to the Science and Industry museum seeing the U Boat, eating at the Pump Room and stayed at The London House. A year or so after our trip we watched the Chicago 1968 Riots on TV . Would exclaim..' hey we were right at that spot just a year ago ' !
Now I can watch reruns of M Squad TV series and see some of the same spots. Not interested in returning.