Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

Be careful!

Dude, you're keeping this train rolling. What a long strange trip it's been. I hope all of our FL brothers and sisters are okay and getting things cleaned up following Hurricane Ian.

I hope everyone who has come and gone from this thread and idea over the years are well!

As is true for about, oh, I don't know, 100% of us, there is no such thing as 'trading perfectly'--no secret sauce-- but there is more to fibs than self-fulfilling prophecies.

What is a fib anyway? Put simply: It's a framework for measuring the field of play. It's not a perfect framework, but the heart of fibs as applied to trading is all about proportionality. Fibs are like the yard lines on a football field; they make sense of the state of the game and the positioning of each team.

Trading is a game that is played with orders. Order warfare, order flow, market dynamics, whatever you want to call it, causes ever changing positioning of the bid and ask. Each new tick and trade cause ripple effects within the market and paints the oscillations and waves we see on price charts.

Fluffy words, but let's frame this with an early idea that came out of this thread. What does it mean when a trading range is broken out of? Some of the fib crowd would call this a 'trigger.' And since we know trading is a game played with orders, how would we understand a 'trigger' through the order game lens?

Imagine we look at a swing low to swing high and we draw a fib retracement. Price pulls back from the swing high, finds support at the .618 inner fib, then moves back up and breaks through the swing high. Behind the scenes we have a group of traders who are currently long, who likely have floating profits. They very likely got long down at the swing low, and perhaps slightly below it. The swing high we have our fib anchored on was created by the long's inventory at the ask. The inventory at the ask is the open interest of the current longs. Oftentimes 'resistance' is composed of profit-taking orders. When price moves up and breaks through the original swing high, it suggests that the profit taking orders and volume at that swing high have changed hands. Of course it's never this simple or straightforward. When price pulled back to the .618 level and found support, that support was created by volume at the bid. Current longs or new short sellers could have filled those bids, but we have a general situation where buyers are assuming inventory both at the bid, they are also issuing market orders at and above that original swing high. Just like before, all the inventory the buyers hold in open positions will be moved higher up the price ladder, likely in proportion to the current volume and inventory which has painted the original trading range we fibbed. So we'd expect something near the original trading range to develop from the .618 inner fib level up to the outer 1.382 fib level. It's as if the original range is still operational, but the base has moved up to the inner .382 level.

But have you ever noticed that trading ranges grow? Meaning if the original buying range we measured was, say, 150 pips, the 2nd wave might swell to 200 pips or more. Many traders follow heat maps and momentum. Buying begets more buying: the loudest pit in the exchange draws other trader's attention. So you don't just have the current open interest to think about, you have the possibility of new participants entering the market and exacerbating demand. If this demand is heavily weighted to one side, things can quickly go parabolic. Now plug in Elliot Wave: Which wave is usually biggest? That's right, wave three usually runs hard. The real winners are the buyers who got a great price at the bid at the bottom of wave 1. Wave 1 is created by market orders and is the 'marketing wave' in my view. It creates some noise in the market. Wave 3 is the crowd rushing in and creating the momentum. Wave 5 is made of patsies- the last group of buyers. They assume the bulk of the inventory which was picked up for cheap at the original base of wave 1. All of a sudden this group of patsies now hold all the hot potatoes.. No more buyers available, bids cancel, asks go stale and melt into market-sell orders. Price cascades down into new depth at the bid far below and the inventory flows back into a new base before Elliot Wave 1 appears once again on the chart. And the eternal cycle repeats.

And the above is just one way the trading range can play out. Where are all the stops of the new group of buyers at the .618 inner pullback? That's right, probably not far below that support. And all the buying volume that was opened at or near the .618 inner fib will melt into market sell orders if sellers have the current majority in the market and can push into those stops. The trading range can then descend down somewhere near that outer 1.382 fib or close to it where it'll encounter the take profit orders of the sellers down at the bid.

Again, the real market is far more complex and not this straight forward. But painting price charts is very expensive and worth measuring with a fib retrace tool.

ALL RISE!

JUDGE!!! 62!!!

The Great Yankee from NY has it all! Triple Crown was right there for the taking as well!

SINGLE SEASON HOME RUN KING HERE!

The King!



MUST SEE>>>

dagoods thinks that's a good practice>>>

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la la la "In the right measure" la la la "In the right measure" la la la

lol

Happy Thanksgiving all you Turkeys and Chickens! lol


Gobble Gobble Gobble!

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Life is just a series of opportunities to get over yourself.

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The Song of the ever free!

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What a feel good story!

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My wife sent me an awesome link! Brightline will be here in time for Christmas!!!!

Love this. Can go visit the family whenever we wish now!

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My Wife informs me that the railway is not quite ready for us yet. I'm more than ready, but there are few finishing touches to be put on the Brightline. We are basically there though... I didn't want to leave you all with half truths which of course can be the most harmful and therefore the worst sort of lies, so I Am correcting the omission(s). Stay tuned!

Love to share this story with everyone & everybody! So many prayers now answered!!! Thank Goodness!!!


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The bills don't have to worry about it either. What a relief!

He even facetimed with the team! Imagine That!

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What a wonderful teacher/teaching...

The Owl has shown up!!!

"The inauspiciousness of the owl is nothing but the inauspiciousness of the man who thinks that owl is inauspicious!"
~ Mehmet Murat ildan


"Owl spirit animals as messengers of change
Owl spirit animals are symbolic of death in many traditions. In most cases however, it should not be taken literally: If the owl is associated with death, it can be viewed a symbolic death, meaning a transition in life, important changes that are taking place or about to happen.
When the owl shows up in your life, pay attention to the winds of change. Perhaps you are about to leave some old habits, a situation that no longer serve you or bring something new in your life."

Scotty. WHY do trading ranges grow? WHY? Do they always grow? Or do sometimes they contract. WHY?

"What is a fib anyway" is a good question?

Another question: What is a "trigger'? Why would price be obligated to do something? What, precisely, are those circumstances?

If WE can't explain the who what when where Why & How.... then what am we doing, right?

I can tell you this: There are good fibs and bad fibs. Everyone should know that. The Thread Operator could have and should have explained the difference. It isn't as obvious as one would like to think. Otherwise, it generates 1 step then no further steps up.

But one should also recognize that a good fib, yes even a good one, can hurt or even destroy a little one. So what appears to itself as a good fib, a really good one, can actually do harm. That is obvious. We all need to stay away from doing that!

If you view your fibo instrument as the rod or a magic wand or whatever else you dream up, in any case, The rod is for gentle nudges not violently bashing the little ones into submission. Trying to vie for power and control (over every little fibo) is going in the wrong direction, even at the highest level or timeframes if you catch my drift.
Following price action is not the same as controlling price actions. Anyway, FWIW, just some pointers for your consideration!

I've learned though, that what we were taught, namely, "Going with the flow" is better! WE have to do better!

Happy to share!

A Better explanation of the Golden Ratio. >>>

https://betterexplained.com/articles...tio-intuition/