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  • #159,301
  • Oct 18, 2022 8:49am Oct 18, 2022 8:49am
We are in a rising wedge on 4hrs and rising wedges usually break down, i just got confirmation on 15mins. I sold on the current candle @0.98650 targeting 0.9500 till end of week
Risk comes from not knowing what to do
  • #159,302
  • Edited 9:31am Oct 18, 2022 8:49am | Edited 9:31am
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} i would expect bulls to last until the next FOMC meeting in November and then they will run away
I agree, I expect bull power to slowly lose its effect... Day of FOMC speeches sounds okay...

Meanwhile, I am noticing a megaphone structure slowly appearing on H1... It is always a mystery which side candles breakout... Too early to tell...

Best wishes
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #159,303
  • Oct 18, 2022 8:55am Oct 18, 2022 8:55am
Quoting Hamzalolo
Dear Ata If this pattern Bearish White Swan What is the landing target? {image}
Your bearish swan gives hope to bears... Interferes with my plans... I think it will soon kick in so I am now forced to keep it in my radars... Damn! I hate swans... even the real ones... arrogant ducks..that's what they are
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #159,304
  • Oct 18, 2022 9:09am Oct 18, 2022 9:09am
Let's start with price, then we'll look at the triggers.

Price was trying to push above the 200-SMA, currently at 0.986, down from the 0.9888 two days ago. The question now becomes, will price attempt another A1 move again in A2? We'll see. I'm expecting price to attempt the L0 level (261% Fib) in coming weeks. Prices are supported at L2, L3 and L4 levels. L2 is the 323% Fib, L3 is the 50-SMA and L4 is the dreaded desceding trend line.

There were two arrows I marked: one on Oct 5 and another Oct 13. They were the US dollar liquidity swap initiated by the Fed, to counterparties in Europe (two central banks, ECB included). They coincide with the swap lines: $3.3bn on Oct 5, and matured on Oct 13. I expect we'll see another similar dip (and bounce on EURUSD, or a dip on USD index), when the Oct 12 swap ($6.48bn) matures on Oct 20, and a bounce on EURUSD if another billion dollar swap line was to be extended/initiated.

I saw a comment earlier saying this FX market is a huge one. I agree on that. In fact, close to 50% of daily transactions are FX swaps, with spot trading accountng for about 30% and the rest made up of options and forwards. Now, unlike the daily FX swaps traded by commercial interests daily, central bank liquidity swap was different kind of an animal altogether. As I conject last week, US CPI data release did not warrant a -150 pips down and +200 pips up swing in 4 hours. Something else was going on, and now we know.
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  • #159,305
  • Oct 18, 2022 9:21am Oct 18, 2022 9:21am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Chances that we are going to see the price around here (with bold) today until expiry at least. EUR/USD: 0.9800 (EU938.7M), 0.9850 (EU718.8M), 1.0100 (EU695.1M)
EURUSD what else, in a range - 0.9800? and some pips lower, or a rise above the new high will lead the price at 0.9894.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #159,306
  • Oct 18, 2022 9:26am Oct 18, 2022 9:26am
There's high probability that the bull party has ended for now if what I am seeing on H4 is anything to go by, except there's at least a positive fundamental for EU or a negative one for US
  • #159,307
  • Oct 18, 2022 9:29am Oct 18, 2022 9:29am
Quoting dele5000
There's high probability that the bull party has ended for now if what I am seeing on H4 is anything to go by, except there's at least a positive fundamental for EU or a negative one for US
still bullish if the price stays near 0.985, but I'm bearish from higher levels on the daily chart, near 1.0
don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #159,308
  • Oct 18, 2022 9:29am Oct 18, 2022 9:29am
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  • #159,309
  • Oct 18, 2022 9:31am Oct 18, 2022 9:31am
Short 0.9837. TP 0.9712 a quick 25.
  • #159,310
  • Oct 18, 2022 9:32am Oct 18, 2022 9:32am
Sorry 0.9812 quick 25
  • #159,311
  • Oct 18, 2022 9:41am Oct 18, 2022 9:41am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Again: I ignore swans, but I could buy or sell based on other factors... Since you mentioned the pattern that would be your job brother... Oh wait a second, I just woke up to see that you are thinking wrong on what to do when price arrives at TP2... It is not a buy level.. It is a TP level.. Why would you buy there? You take profit at TP2... That's all... Good luck and best wishes

Many thanks dear
  • #159,312
  • Oct 18, 2022 9:44am Oct 18, 2022 9:44am
Quoting Hamzalolo
{quote} Many thanks dear
You're welcome... For now, it looks like swan traders are eager to push this towards TP1, BUT H1 situation provides still some significant amounts of support around 0.9825 roughly! Please note that there is also still no H1 candle close above 0.98665... It could also take some 6 to 8 hours until candles break out from circle. Let's see...

Best wishes and good luck
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #159,313
  • Oct 18, 2022 9:47am Oct 18, 2022 9:47am
I think this is a good place for a longer-term short, and I base that on the 4h chart with the 200ma and a simple trendline.
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  • #159,314
  • Oct 18, 2022 9:51am Oct 18, 2022 9:51am
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  • #159,315
  • Oct 18, 2022 9:52am Oct 18, 2022 9:52am
Bullish MACD diversion on 1H
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  • #159,316
  • Oct 18, 2022 9:57am Oct 18, 2022 9:57am
Quoting Hamzalolo
{image}{image}
Yep.. It's the megaphone structure I was talking about... Both sides have to be patient!

Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} I agree, I expect bull power to slowly lose its effect... Day of FOMC speeches sounds okay... Meanwhile, I am noticing a megaphone structure slowly appearing on H1... It is always a mystery which side candles breakout... Too early to tell... Best wishes
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #159,317
  • Oct 18, 2022 9:59am Oct 18, 2022 9:59am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} EURUSD what else, in a range - 0.9800? and some pips lower, or a rise above the new high will lead the price at 0.9894.
Bulls are coming very strong! 0.9860 could be the last line to break at the road up.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #159,318
  • Oct 18, 2022 10:03am Oct 18, 2022 10:03am
Bullish bias for me, still learning. 0.99230, if not, then we could see 0.97650
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"Your Habits Will Determine Your Future"
  • #159,319
  • Oct 18, 2022 10:15am Oct 18, 2022 10:15am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Bulls are coming very strong! 0.9860 could be the last line to break at the road up.
bulls are weak on the daily chart and I sense that intraday traders can be trapped easily
don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #159,320
  • Oct 18, 2022 10:22am Oct 18, 2022 10:22am
red fish, blue fish. white fish...
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always shorting eu All Time Profit: $1,476
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