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Hedging/averaging trades without prediction

  • #41
  • Oct 16, 2022 9:39am Oct 16, 2022 9:39am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} My interpretation of what Waveskierrob is proposing is offsetting 'bets', and waiting for a swing to an extreme position where he would close one of the bets while waiting for the price to swing back, taking his 'real profit' somewhere along the swing back. Just a guess.
...again this is not the thread for guessing or speculation, one thing I said on an earlier post, another point was "patience" if you are patient and wait until I've posted a few live trades then you can slate what I'm doing when it all goes tits up...
  • #42
  • Oct 16, 2022 9:41am Oct 16, 2022 9:41am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Hence this thread I will trade live real time when I can, I did post a day's LONG/SHORT trading some time ago 29th December 2020 if you are interested, yes I do get hit with charges but that's the price I pay for overall profits....paid £2400 in the last 60 days
Could you id the post you are referring to or post a new link to it?
  • #43
  • Oct 16, 2022 9:50am Oct 16, 2022 9:50am
Quoting Pat Chiko
Before we begin, just to let you know that "I come from the future." - PAT Chiko Lets start with very simple things first before getting deeper into discussion. Here's the chart. Simple chart. {image}
We are on the move...

Lets moved up the speed a bit.
Take on previous example GU.
For discussion purposes, just to focus on London Open.
( not to cherry pick example, but for clarity on the process first).

We can choose any time to enter ( Tokyo. London, NY, Moscow etc)

Three example with detail expalnation.
Not all are profitable, some are tricky, some with tight SL, some with wide SL.
NOTE : My SL reference is always based on swing point - Pivot point with 1.5ATR
You may choose other ways of putting SL as you wish

Here the three example.
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #44
  • Oct 16, 2022 9:51am Oct 16, 2022 9:51am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} Could you id the post you are referring to or post a new link to it?
It's many posts over the day, click my page click my posts then it starts on page 179
  • #45
  • Edited 11:55am Oct 16, 2022 11:36am | Edited 11:55am
Quoting Isabella_D
{quote} From my point of view, there are mostly unclear, long-term opportunities to hedge important news. Trading before news you have to have staying power - tp has to be far away (tp of the opposite too), - little profit in case of hidding tp because enormous widening spread - possibly af long wait for a win (oposite sidex2 and gamechanging of underlying Its not my recomendation to use hedge in case of red news.
I am a 30-200pips scalper, i dont move to a swing or long term trades, as the market risk gave me too much stress. I usually combined fundamentals with TA, and i got the right move quite a few times during a red news, but most of the time, when the micro is cloudy(i dont know what the market is expected), this reduced the win rate to 50/50 and i usually stay on the sidelines and watch 100-150 pip moves and i'm not on the ride.

So applying the direct hedging method in this scenario (particularly in the last 15mins prior the release), it might at least get me some pips instead of nothing as well as allowing me to keep my SL tight and at least a decent profit target to cover my SL of the wrong side and some few pips more for the account.

Well, it is just today i do really understand how exactly we placed a hedge trade. I will try to use it in a red news, and see whether it really works the wayt i thought or would backfired on me. Whether it worth it or not, i will know only by trying it.

But you do have a very good point, there are many times, on the red news released, the price go 25-30pips in the wrong side first, then the real direction starts. Mostly when there are mixed data. Either way, the risk management should remains priority. Cause both trades would be stopped out. (i never use more than 30pips SL)
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #46
  • Oct 16, 2022 12:07pm Oct 16, 2022 12:07pm
So far I have seen a lot of ideas from the great traders here in this thread. I will add my two cents by giving away some clues based on my experience regarding the hedge setup which works and also I will drop off some clues as to how you can tweak around various indicators to create variations of your strategies. I am talking about variations because I have seen a lot of people at FF and many other forums who believe that market makers always hunt them down, no matter what. Thus no strategy works with market makers. But I have substantial evidence to prove that even the market maker cannot hunt you down if you know how to play with hedging as a tool in your arsenal. Waveskie is right that "this tool solely cannot guarantee you success so you need to have at least a trading strategy" even if it works 20% of the times. If you have that then the next step is to add up this hedging tool to augment that strategy and turn losers to winners within a short span of time.

Waveskie has provided an opportunity for all those who really want to learn hedging. I never believed it works but since I have developed it into a robust methodology to deal with any kind of situation. The way I survived flash crashes couple of days back on GU on my challenge account (attached to my profile) is an evidence of the tool at work.

I hope my next posts in this thread will elaborate in detail the mechanics of direct hedge and a covered hedge. Till then sit tight and I will serve you oven hot ideas where you can tweak them to your taste. IT WILL WORK FOR YOU.

Catch you in couple of hours with another post in detail.
WARNING: This post warps space and time in its vicinity.
  • #47
  • Oct 16, 2022 12:32pm Oct 16, 2022 12:32pm
Quoting WizardTrade
So far I have seen a lot of ideas from the great traders here in this thread. I will add my two cents by giving away some clues based on my experience regarding the hedge setup which works and also I will drop off some clues as to how you can tweak around various indicators to create variations of your strategies. I am talking about variations because I have seen a lot of people at FF and many other forums who believe that market makers always hunt them down, no matter what. Thus no strategy works with market makers. But I have substantial evidence...
I did wish this thread to have no predictions or use of indicators etc but realise that it would be a tall order as mostly everyone except me has some sort of trigger, I will still enter my trades randomly 50/50 just to show how it works for me, this starting a new thread is harder than I thought was on the back of too many PM's, answering questions in one place seem to be the way to go, hopefully my live trades will answer most of you questions and give me an easy time of it...thanks for the post Wizard....
  • #48
  • Oct 16, 2022 12:34pm Oct 16, 2022 12:34pm
[quote=Fardeen1209;14182198]{quote} Ich bin ein 30-200-Pips-Scalper, ...
What I wanted to point out concerning red news:
assuming one of the two (short or long) tp is hit, it may be you get little money only (spread+slip) and maybe the course goes much further than you could use with your tp in win. While the opposite tp is remunerated on the broker's normal terms. Your chance risk ratio is fully destroyed.
There are fans of newstrading, I'm not one of them. Exceptions for instance interest rate hike AUD is accepted positively by the market, NZD was at a normal level before, then I trade AUDNZD promptly, i.e. not the main currency pairs.

You will make your own experiences. Lets see. It would be interesting too hear from you.
And sorry Wellenskirrob if that doesn't hit your topic. I'm waiting now for what you want to draw our attention to.
  • #49
  • Oct 16, 2022 12:49pm Oct 16, 2022 12:49pm
Quoting Isabella_D
Quoting Fardeen1209
{quote} Ich bin ein 30-200-Pips-Scalper, ... What I wanted to point out concerning red news: assuming one of the two (short or long) tp is hit, it may be you get little money only (spread+slip) and maybe the course goes much further than you could use with your tp in win. While the opposite tp is remunerated on the broker's normal terms. Your chance risk ratio is fully destroyed. There are fans of newstrading, I'm not one of them. Exceptions for instance interest rate hike AUD is accepted positively by the market, NZD
...
Best time to trade when markets are ranging, I would personally avoid news and opening times as spreads widen, however markets can spike or crash out of the blue, so I will trade in all conditions just to show what I do when things do go tits up
  • #50
  • Oct 16, 2022 12:58pm Oct 16, 2022 12:58pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} I did wish this thread to have no predictions or use of indicators etc but realise that it would be a tall order as mostly everyone except me has some sort of trigger, I will still enter my trades randomly 50/50 just to show how it works for me, this starting a new thread is harder than I thought was on the back of too many PM's, answering questions in one place seem to be the way to go, hopefully my live trades will answer most of you questions and give me an easy time of it...thanks for the post Wizard....
I am sorry I forgot about the No Indicator Policy What's the way forward? Should I post my views here without indicators or what? I will keep it civil and organized regardless we opt out of indicators or triggers.
WARNING: This post warps space and time in its vicinity.
  • #51
  • Oct 16, 2022 1:00pm Oct 16, 2022 1:00pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote}{quote} Best time to trade when markets are ranging, I would personally avoid news and opening times as spreads widen, however markets can spike or crash out of the blue, so I will trade in all conditions just to show what I do when things do go tits up
Honestly, the ideas which I have in mind never care about such things. Like ranging markets, trending markets etc. These ideas work in any situation but the money management part is clearly the headache for the man or woman behind the method. That is a whole universe in itself
WARNING: This post warps space and time in its vicinity.
  • #52
  • Oct 16, 2022 1:06pm Oct 16, 2022 1:06pm
Educational Post 1:

I have a couple of questions to test the waters. If the readers of this thread may answer these:

1. What is a direct hedge? What do you know about it?
2. Have you ever applied hedging in your trading? If yes, then how did you do it? What were the challenges you faced while keeping the trades hedged?
3. Did you leave the hedge midway and lost all trades involved in the hedge? A visual example will be a plus to understand how you played it out in your trading?

More questions to follow. I will give you the clues retrospectively so that it becomes a tailored methodology and may help other traders as well.
WARNING: This post warps space and time in its vicinity.
  • #53
  • Oct 16, 2022 1:06pm Oct 16, 2022 1:06pm
Quoting WizardTrade
{quote} I am sorry I forgot about the No Indicator Policy What's the way forward? Should I post my views here without indicators or what? I will keep it civil and organized regardless we opt out of indicators or triggers.
Yes please post indicators or any triggers as you wish, never know you might convert me into using some of them ..., but I will post with no prediction
  • #54
  • Oct 16, 2022 1:08pm Oct 16, 2022 1:08pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Yes please post indicators or any triggers as you wish, never know you might convert me into using some of them ..., but I will post with no prediction
Got it Hope to add value to your thread and to this august community of pure learners.
WARNING: This post warps space and time in its vicinity.
  • #55
  • Oct 16, 2022 1:18pm Oct 16, 2022 1:18pm
Quoting WizardTrade
Educational Post 1: I have a couple of questions to test the waters. If the readers of this thread may answer these: 1. What is a direct hedge? What do you know about it? 2. Have you ever applied hedging in your trading? If yes, then how did you do it? What were the challenges you faced while keeping the trades hedged? 3. Did you leave the hedge midway and lost all trades involved in the hedge? A visual example will be a plus to understand how you played it out in your trading? More questions to follow. I will give you the clues retrospectively...
No idea but im willing to learn
Lou Vincii Code
  • #56
  • Oct 16, 2022 1:21pm Oct 16, 2022 1:21pm
Quoting RemyLou
{quote} No idea but im willing to learn
Great. Learners are always welcome These questions are just to get started with some initial knowledge at hand and then build upon it and create something meaningful for the whole community so that it can be used in the years to come. This is a pure educational material. Keep this thread bookmarked and you will enjoy whole new dimension of trading and that too without any hassle of emotions
WARNING: This post warps space and time in its vicinity.
  • #57
  • Oct 17, 2022 12:09am Oct 17, 2022 12:09am
TEST 1

GU
LONG Bias.

Set up as per chart.
Open Long/Short 1.12308
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #58
  • Oct 17, 2022 12:27am Oct 17, 2022 12:27am
Quoting Pat Chiko
TEST 1 GU LONG Bias. Set up as per chart. Open Long/Short 1.12308 {image}
GU

Short position stopped out.
Long position building up.

Add position as price pullback along the way.
Move SL slowly as it progress with minor pullback
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #59
  • Edited 1:11am Oct 17, 2022 12:31am | Edited 1:11am
Great thread, hope to learn from the different ideas here. Although you strictly say 'Trade without Prediction', I could offer you a theoretical way of hedging with some prediction.

1. Buy on support
2. Replace stoploss with a sell order below support
3. TP (2) next level support
4a. Buy if price bounces off support to TP original (1) trade (either (4) TP at (1) and (1) keeps original TP, or (1) & (4) are TP together at (1) entry (so (1) is BE trade)).
4b. Price continues going down and therefore open sell trade (therefore (1) is still opened)
5. Repeat trades 3 and 4a.

I've tried so hard to make this work, but it ended up in failure...largely because of me - I had trades lasting weeks long and my drawdown was getting larger and larger. Imagine the picture - I bought at multiple supports, but price kept going down. I may have won 1 sell trade each time price went down, but I added on additional buys every time it went down, so I ended up have more open buys than my winning sell trades, therefore increasing drawdown.

Of course a few days after I SL all the buy trades and to start fresh, price goes back up again <emoji mad>. I could've added 2 sells to even out the buy and sell trades, but then again it increases drawdowns and stuff.

Does anyone have an input into this type of hedging strategy? Alternatively this direct hedge does sound pretty intriguing after seeing some examples in this thread. I might consider using your method instead. Looking forward to more examples of trades!

(btw, image I just got off the Internet, not mine)
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  • #60
  • Oct 17, 2022 12:46am Oct 17, 2022 12:46am
let us exercise patience until the threadstarter shows us his live trades.
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
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