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vsa with Malcolm

  • #35,841
  • Sep 29, 2022 8:49am Sep 29, 2022 8:49am
I see distribution since new york open, at the moment we are close to london close.
I see it in EU, GJ and GOLD, likey a retracement or major down move from here, tonight or tomorrow.
IMHO
Holy Grail - Patience and Acceptance
  • #35,842
  • Sep 29, 2022 8:55am Sep 29, 2022 8:55am
Quoting Anotan
{quote}
Great swing capture.

Can you please share some tips on holding trade overnight/weekends. I close all trades by ends of the day. although sometimes its clear that Price isn't coming back soon.
Secondly what is your scale in criteria? please share if you feel comfortable sharing these. :-)
Holy Grail - Patience and Acceptance
  • #35,843
  • Sep 29, 2022 8:57am Sep 29, 2022 8:57am
Quoting bluesoul
I see distribution since new york open, at the moment we are close to london close. I see it in EU, GJ and GOLD, likey a retracement or major down move from here, tonight or tomorrow. IMHO
Most likely trap up move on gold
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Holy Grail - Patience and Acceptance
  • #35,844
  • Sep 29, 2022 10:43am Sep 29, 2022 10:43am
Quoting bluesoul
{quote} Great swing capture. Can you please share some tips on holding trade overnight/weekends. I close all trades by ends of the day. although sometimes its clear that Price isn't coming back soon. Secondly what is your scale in criteria? please share if you feel comfortable sharing these. :-)
I entered this trade because price rejected the the close of the Sept 13th CPI bar, and I held the trade because of how climatic the spread of the bar was. It's usually worth holding trades longer when you see price clearly rejecting HLC on bars with spreads/volume that are larger than the previous few days. There will be times though when price will tag the climatic volume bar for multiple days before eventually entering into the trend. Not much you can do besides taking partial profits so you can at least walk away with something.

I tend to enter as price rejects high volume closes, I've gone over this extensively in my posts over the past 3 years. On these longer trades once you realize that price is in a trend you can pad your account with scalp trades. Head fakes work well in trends as price tries to trap traders into the wrong side.
  • #35,845
  • Sep 29, 2022 10:56am Sep 29, 2022 10:56am
thanks man,

now question is how to develop the patience for holding trades over days :-)
Holy Grail - Patience and Acceptance
  • #35,846
  • Sep 29, 2022 11:10am Sep 29, 2022 11:10am
Timing is very difficult - most Traderz cant wait on the sideline ...
If I see something on timebased charts H1 or higher i will hold the trades with R/R 1:5 to 1:20 and yes - over night... for me are the news very important because CM like to hunt SL ... for a simple reason. They want to buy his shorts/long without that price move agianst them.

I try to move SL on BE as fast as possible. Trail my SL down and If I see weakness before my planed exit - I leave the market. But usally I accept no profits or losses aslong my RR 1:5 or higher isnīt hit. "Trading in the Zone" is a gr8 Book which I red several time and a big learning from this book for me was: "trading is game of chances" so losses is part of he game... in the end of the day you need to make money and to be right always... thats why R/R Ratio is very important for me.

However, if I see something on H1 or higher I luv to play my entry on M1. M3 or M5 and look for Exits on the timeframe where I saw my opportunity.
In EURGBP I look for an exit on H1 with R/R 1:10. So yes I willhold it overnight because I saw the opprtunity on H1...

Lets see, the market will show me If Iīm right or wrong. I move my SL on BE ... so it is free beer now for me. I like to see it fast if Iīm wrong or not.

Anyway EURGBP is looking southside and I expect more lows tommorow. But who knows.

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best
Steph
  • #35,847
  • Sep 29, 2022 11:13am Sep 29, 2022 11:13am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} Closed EU out today. Today in mid Asia there was a massive 170 pip drop on EU on, well climatic volume is almost an understatement for this time of day. Probably not today but in the next coming days/weeks watch how price reacts to today's PA. The time of day and the amount of volume of today's PA should have your trader sense tingling. This big drop was foreseeable, but I'm a little surprised about how intense it was. If you see climatic volume created by a big news event and you can clearly see price is reacting to the HLC, then set yourself...
Nice Trade - I took nearly the same ... and left it on 26 after I saw the climatic action. LOL U are doing great
  • #35,848
  • Oct 6, 2022 7:21am Oct 6, 2022 7:21am
Perfect day for AU.

Late Asia price just kissed a HVC and came off immediately. Plus yesterday there was loads of weakness during Asia and London, granted the highest volume bar from US session looks like a bullish shakeout. But with price reacting to a HVC on the highs plus an obvious UT yesterday during Asia you don't want to be long. It's important to read PA during a currencies home session.

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Go up to the Daily timeframe, and we have a pin bar that will obviously fail with all of the intra day weakness. How is this helpful? Failed pin bar = look for price to close well below the low of the failed pin bar.

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  • #35,849
  • Edited 9:29am Oct 6, 2022 9:14am | Edited 9:29am
Quoting Anotan
Perfect day for AU.
Price is stalling a bit at the low of yesterday's shakeout, though I'd be completely astounded if price is able to find footing here and rallies.

I did close out a couple of trades in the slim chance it does. The last year or so I've gotten away from multi entries which wasn't a great idea. With multi entries as long as you don't add to losers, get your previous set of entries to BE before adding a new set it will greatly reduce your risk to the market.

If price goes against you immediately after your first set of entries, then who cares? You take a partial loss compared to going all in at once.

If price goes your way, then great! Get your first set of entries to BE then add to your position. It kinda sucks mentally when you get stopped out after adding a 2nd set of entries. You take a small loss when instead you could be BE if you had just gone all on the first entry. But you have to keep in mind when trades go your way, your profits will snow ball compared to your risk at any given point during the trade. Hence I never risked more than 2% on this trade and at one point in this trade I was up 12%.

If you go this route, when looking to add to your position keep it simple and look for head fakes.
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  • #35,850
  • Oct 6, 2022 11:40pm Oct 6, 2022 11:40pm
EA long.

EA is more or less the inverse of AU, so today took advantage of the continued weakness of AUD.

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AU looks to be range bound at the moment, we might see a bounce off .6360.

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  • #35,851
  • Oct 7, 2022 12:02am Oct 7, 2022 12:02am
Quoting Anotan
EA long. EA is more or less the inverse of AU, so today took advantage of the continued weakness of AUD. {image} AU looks to be range bound at the moment, we might see a bounce off .6360. {image}
Agree with you on EA long
  • #35,852
  • Oct 9, 2022 1:55pm Oct 9, 2022 1:55pm
If EU Holds 0.97 there is a good chance for reversal to 1.0, off course there are some resistances on the way as in attached image; Levels.
0.9663 to 0.97 is critical area, if it goes there, then supply may move it further down.

EU Levels to watch: attached image.

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On the left and right of non-farm emp change bar on m1, we have strong demand, followed by markup to the top of large spread news bar. And then we have very low volumes on dowmove to 9750 are, so chances are that we will either move above 0.98 today or spend a day or two in 0.9660 - 0.98 range for more accumulation.

On the other hand break of 0.9660 will possibly collapse it to bottom of the range.
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Holy Grail - Patience and Acceptance
  • #35,853
  • Oct 9, 2022 3:59pm Oct 9, 2022 3:59pm
Quoting bluesoul
If EU Holds 0.97 there is a good chance for reversal to 1.0..
Bar 3 that ultra wide spread down bar, until the high is taken out I'd treat that bar as selling. In Forex anyways, 9 out of 10 times those crazy wide spread bars are usually absorption bars.

The only exception I'd make to that rule is if there is absolutely no PA to the left of the bar, which in this case you have bars 1&2 to the left of the high so I'd still treat that bar as selling.
  • #35,854
  • Oct 10, 2022 1:03am Oct 10, 2022 1:03am
Quoting Anotan
EA long. EA is more or less the inverse of AU, so today took advantage of the continued weakness of AUD. {image} AU looks to be range bound at the moment, we might see a bounce off .6360. {image}
Interesting day.

Today being a holiday for US/CA/JPY, price took advantage of marking through the previous low from Sep 28th with very little effort.

I think AU is in fresh new ground so I'm not sure when I'll close this position, sell the rallies for now I guess.
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  • #35,855
  • Oct 11, 2022 5:12pm Oct 11, 2022 5:12pm
Damn, this thread is back to the times of me posting to myself again.

AU.. Another day another sell.

Notice the weird spike in volume late yesterday, today in early Asia sellers rejected the HVC. Yesterday I took a 20 pip loss and some BE trades as price rallied a bit.

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I'm thinking AU has room to drop another 130 pips went up to a monthly chart and found my target.

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  • #35,856
  • Oct 13, 2022 6:16am Oct 13, 2022 6:16am
Finally closing out AU shorts, price is about 70 pips shy of that monthly target but with the wide spread down bar from today's CPI its better to bank the profits. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, or something like that.

Past couple of days have been annoying, a lot of BE trades and some losses, but the losses were absolutely nothing compared to the gains. Today in Asia price rejected 8245 which was the HVC off the highest volume bar from Oct 11th, which was a sign that CPI was going to be bearish.

Obviously this was an exceptional trade aided by the trends the market is currently in, not all the time will you be able to stack trades across multiple days and build up a massive position. Daily charts can be a huge help though with identifying whether price is currently ranging or trending. Either throw up some MAs or train your eyes to see market structure i.e. HHs/HLs and identify whether price is ranging or trending.

I think there was a trader that use to be active on this thread.. Teb maybe? He used a 5 EMA channel to determine if immediate price was trending.

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  • #35,857
  • Oct 13, 2022 2:22pm Oct 13, 2022 2:22pm
Quoting Anotan
Finally closing out AU shorts, price is about 70 pips shy of that monthly target but with the wide spread down bar from today's CPI its better to bank the profits. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, or something like that. Past couple of days have been annoying, a lot of BE trades and some losses, but the losses were absolutely nothing compared to the gains. Today in Asia price rejected 8245 which was the HVC off the highest volume bar from Oct 11th, which was a sign that CPI was going to be bearish. Obviously this was an exceptional trade...
your posts are good for readers, so keep posting. and don't worry you are not alone, will join you from next week.
Holy Grail - Patience and Acceptance
  • #35,858
  • Oct 13, 2022 10:54pm Oct 13, 2022 10:54pm
5 EMA channel with a 50 EMA as reference.

The grey box do you think you would want to try and build positions here? Or hit and run trading?

What about the blue box?

Notice how wide the 5 EMA channel is in the grey box and how narrow it gets in the blue box.

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Also doesn't daily seem like its worth watching even if you're a M1 scalper? When price was in that grey box, seems like that would be a scalpers paradise. That Blue box maybe a scalper would either avoid shorts or take reduced positions on shorts.
  • #35,859
  • Oct 14, 2022 12:16pm Oct 14, 2022 12:16pm
Quoting Anotan
5 EMA channel with a 50 EMA as reference. The grey box do you think you would want to try and build positions here? Or hit and run trading? What about the blue box? Notice how wide the 5 EMA channel is in the grey box and how narrow it gets in the blue box. {image} Also doesn't daily seem like its worth watching even if you're a M1 scalper? When price was in that grey box, seems like that would be a scalpers paradise. That Blue box maybe a scalper would either avoid shorts or take reduced positions on shorts.
Im watching, actually reading the thread from the beginning, so Im here with you not commenting a lot but watching

thanks
have a nice weekend
  • #35,860
  • Oct 16, 2022 2:05pm Oct 16, 2022 2:05pm
Guys I hope you all had a nice weekend.

I need to ask a question not about trading but about the best instrument to trade before Europe Open.

Due to a change of jobs I cant trade the London open one hour before and 1 after now I have to trade at 6 uk time for an hour, I trade the 1 min and 5 min chart. I do not mind about spreads since I trade a raw spread account with ic markets and i get charged a commission not on spread.

I used to trade the majors but the are better traded at the Europe and uk open which i cant trade now.

Please if anyone had advice on which instrument to trade at that time I will appreciate. Please dont recommend to trade higher timeframes since I cannot monitor the trade or studied due to my work.

Thanks
Kind regards
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