2022 journal

test trades on the markets EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, XAUUSD US30 DAX using supply demand, assist with triangles tools
what use:
the template TheTriangleTrading TTT
indicators
1/ Dollar Index3 signal (modified for showing alert by Tankk)
2/ market profile trendline ntk (modi for option hide value sect, or historgram )
3/ pipsshows_V2, add on only when planing enter trade, not in @TTT light
4a/ Supply demand V3 (show only in M30, H1, .. MN1) add on only when planing enter trade, not in @TTT light
4b/ High low objects, add on only when planing enter trade, not in @TTT light
5/ PeterE (for display scalefix option on off)
6/ Auto session timing mine is set for GMT
7/ 5 EMA , add on only when planing enter trade, not in @TTT light
7/ Expert for setting auto SL TP I use ATR(14) calculated in M5 timeframe, TP ATR auto with factor 2.3 or fix TP 25 pips

Result:
1/ I dont care about how many pips, how many percent, how fast I flip as I trade demo and use 0.01 lot size.
2/ I care about the trade failed/pass consistency, find and reduce my faults and the trade must give me 10 pips minimum to 25 pips in FX; in commodity X10, in crypto x100
3/ In training I trade what currently runs, no time limit, find my faults after every trade, ingrain into myself to remember to erase them.

Note:
After loading the template, you have to go to chart property (F8) common tick off Scalefix. A inconvenience bug in scale fixing I dont know howto fix

ASKING for help to draw the 2 triangles by indicator script: rough drawing and workflow

GBPUSD
MN down trend
W1 Down trend
D1 first large spread green candle, must closed above for clear long term downtrend breakout; if closed below 1.03555 downtrend takeover
H4 formed HH, HL, HH, HL,
H1 formed HH, HL, HH, HL so expect to continue
so if breakout of 1.1219 drop to LTF wait for retrace, completion of retest (with poitive pin bar, continuation candle pattern flag) and confirmed BOS for trend continuation. BUT pay attention here as due to clear RSI divergence, a price correction could happen, with price falls back to 1.09 or 1.06

aLWAYS REMMBER,
beside technical analysis: the quarter,the week bias,the market structure,the day of the week,the news,the session all matters.
test your strategy on 100 trades,out of them 60-70 should win,then use on real account.
Good luck!

EU
MN clean downtrend, hit demand zone
WN1 sign of a reversal, large range indecision candle, first green, positive pin bar candle with bottom wick
D1 engulfing green candle, clear reversal, group of 3 green candle, must ckose above 0.9846 for a downtrend breakout
H4 form HH, HL, HH. HL expect to continue, but hit the H4 supply zone. nre price must form a new HH above 0.908 for a continue of up trend
H1 triangle divergence potential fallen back to 0.9631

EU SELL from 0.9802
breakout downwards confirmed

GU sell from 1.1621
breakout downwards confirmed

AUDUSD
EU
MN clean downtrend, hit demand zone
WN1 sign of a reversal, large range indecision candle, first green, positive pin bar candle with bottom wick
D1 engulfing green candle, clear reversal, pin bar with bottom wick
H4 form HH, HL, HH. HL expect to continue, clear breakout upwards, retest the trend line, but need to close clean above 0.6540 or 50EMA line to continue move up
H1 triangle divergence potential fallen back to 0.9631
clearly see triangle divergence, weakness. in H1 price hit against the 50% line and head for a fall

So sell AU at 0.64885 because analyse late and entry late RR only 1;1

GOLD
MH1 clear downtrend, currently price in supply range 1732-1670, price has violated the bottom of the sypply zone, new buyers efforts to push the price back into the range, a clear up trend only after price close above 1732; if price fall back below 1670 the next demand zone is 1445 to 1511; but if price ever close below 1605 or 1560, the prospect to stop in demand zone 1510 1442, is thinner than the strong fresh demand zone 1300 to 1275

WN1 clear downtrend buyers efforts to push price up, must break above 1735 for clear uptrend,
if price falls below 1608 near target could be 1598

D1 price must close above 1670, retest 1670 to come back in the upper water, currently the pin bar against 1670 is no good news, but green so there is some hope for bull. The supply zone 1688 to 1665 is relative strong; price has revisited this zone 3 times hence the reaction is not strong

H4

H1 clear signal on SELL, ranging sell the top 1674 buy bottom 1661

two more trades of today

6 trades 1 going to TP, 3 I cut early profit when price revers, 1 hit SL is GU text book mistake, 1 still running.

let see why I lost the GU Sell trade at 14:55 entry 1.102, hit SL at 1.1067.

I draw the entry Sl level in gold line, time of entry with gold vertical.

How could I made these txt book mistake. Dumb money noob!

BTCUSD at the week-end only crypto run so I use them as training field

MN1 in a down trend Price currently in range of Demand zone


M15 Signal received RSI move to OS zone,
price heads lower for demand
Qw waiting with a potential buy at the yesterday low
and potential see at the yesterday high level
Not doing anything observing will there
be a breakout at those level or a reversal

The idea is everything is related to the DZY or the $ index, here in case of BTCUSD when $ going up, BTCUSD moves opposite.
It is weekend market not open, still there are bots, HFT which causes the change in behavior of $ index, and change of BTCUSD.
Sp we call the signal of $ index the cause and observe the effect or the result, price will move in certain direction as result of the cause, then the move will exceed expectation or less enthusiasm, now from there we have the RSI lagging calulation, following the price. We start to draw the price angle and then RSI triangle, as following:
1/ from the time receive the $ index signal, best when happen close in the pre-hour of any session London or New York, or even in the night before the Asian session this method show there is always a cause and there is monitored result, as price move to certain level ready for the next session which will emphasize or annulate, reversig the change back to NULL.
So when see the signal we enter immediately buy/sell using correlation direction (like EURUSD move similar GBPUSD, AUDUSD, XAUUSD; but opposite to USDJPY, USDCHF,USDCAD etc) draw the 1st corner from that moment, or the open of the candle still OK

2/ the 2nd corner of the price triangle is where price make extreme (howto know, use pin bar, group of candle formation Railtrack, Shooting star, Evening star) if the level change dont panic just follow it with the price corner, we have plenty of time, this is not our right time to enter the market

3/at some point the result<--cause strength will demise, internal there are hidden activity of professional traders like they taking profit for buy sell position they were long time before retail traders started to enter the market, hence the hidden action will cause exceed movements without a cause observing on the $ index graph, the end of the move is the 3rd corner of our price triangle. Now is the time the MM, professional traders, smart money trader will enter the market, to sell when the price is at the right height, or to buy when the market due to the cause and the hidden activity low enough falling below the real market acceptable value

4/ while draw the price triangle you draw the RSI triangle too:
a/ 1st corner is right at the timeline where 1st corner of the price triangle positioned
b/ 2nd corner is at the 2nd point at the timeline where 2nd corner of the price triangle positioned
c/ 3rd corner is at the 3nd point at the timeline where 3rd corner of the price triangle positioned

5/ now look at the completed price triangle compaire it to the price triangle you see the divergence, the result of additional activity inside the cause&effect process?

6/use the RSI as the police force, regulator. the RSI move from OB to trending, to OS zone and revers while it is somewhere in the midle we only observing, but study has shown when RSI
a/ RSI>85 then come back to the range <80, or RSI<15 then come back to the level >20,
b/ when RSI move out side the BB border then comming back,
c/ when RSI forms pattern like A,V, W, M

case a,b,c happen, then there, is the time to act, and no rush, no FOMO because we know very well the RSI is always lagging and leave us plenty of time to enter with our position once the triangles are formed completetly. There, you move with the professional traders

UPDT:
Still not want to move, so I take my risk price is on top of the distribution bell, so with the direction of RSI moving towards demand, I think safe to sell, SL above the value area, TP, ATR auto calculated =1.5xSL
Close the SELL. Leave a pending buy at 50% of the H1 candle RSI seems to signal a run up

UPDT:
could you see the thief runs off in this M5 chart


UPDT:
another trial see price will got to the target

now we have to remove supply demand to see our triangles

Price has moved out of the value area to dip into the demand area, observe the streck a,b or the andle of the hypotenuses that is the longest side of the triangle connecting the 2nd corner with the closing 3rd corner, at some point you will se the price boring as at the moment will move quick, decisive, like a knife stoss into your heart where ppl dont expected, BUT here with the market profile the triangles, the volume node, the VPOC (volume profile of control) we see slowly market move the price closer and closer to snap the level of previous day low, the nearest liquidity zone, it could fool us to stop before to reverse and taken the liquidity above current level, but be sure it will come back to this yesterday low level where we will have a position watching to buy the market hence we will "buy low" and then wait for another $ index signal to fool the ppl for that market will move to the level where we could perform our long waiting "sell high"

"The trend is your friend", trading with the trend.
Tell me where is our friend, the trend ... no it looks like the divergence of the triangles are our friend

Now we ask how do we know when it has taken liquidity it will reverses and runs back up to higher level, to which level?

Trading is a game of high probability, so if it is on the low side of the value area, obviously it high probable price will move to the high value area; if it visit the yesterday high then sometime it will obviously high probable hit the yesterday low, the shorter plan, shorter memory, shorter run the easier, the better

Or it can visit that level, decide it is time to touch a lower, then a lower, then more lower level, like in some trending day, when the pocket of the greedy professional traders never gets enough then we have trending day ... your friend, hah.... or crashing, or water fall market.

So the answer is we dont know if it stops there then runs higher or keep digging lower and lower ... that why there is money managent and SL

Still waiting... for the market maker to come lower enough to take our order...

We have time to check out the heated discussion between KareemFX and Pat Chiko and Waveskierrob an other about gold, Euro currencies and crypto will soar...

Take the EU KareemFX suggestion is not too fare fetched The level 0.9800 will decide, retest good then up, retest failed, then first down, but soon later will go up, because we are in the first wave/ 1st level up, there are two more to go ... The two will happen after consolidation then expansion the chart will show us when is time, sometime next week or the week later

new chart for first week of OCT 2022

EU H4 channel is UP, Price currently came strong impuls from H4 supply, bounced up from H4 Demand, to continue the trend upwards price need to hold 0.9835, if failed we could see a retest of 0.970, 0.968, 0.965

GU H4 testing to stay in the G4 uptrend, H1 came strong impuls down bounced from H1 demand, on way to vist H1 Supply , in M30 clear candle signal for BUY

AU look like a strong buy at the H1 demand zone

One of great place I chose to learn
study chart and reasons

One of great place I chose to learn
study chart and reasons

AN

NZCHF

H1 OS

U look here 29/8. credit to Newbie2014

What we learn lot size, SL help when trade runs against you a SL should not larger than 35 PIPS.

Dont panic and sell at the low, or buy at the high. Wait about the cycle of 1 month, the price revers where the news bad-mouthed last time.

No cause triangle formed, and runs without fuel is a disaster waiting to happen... wait for the PIN BAR, then the comfirm color candle fuel up then ran over, that is the right time for trading agaisnt the last pin bar, dont panic just wait to see it happens on H1, the pin bar and the fuel up for the opposite run.

The cable group are excited and lot of discussions going on about act of BoE about the future of the Pound.

I would leave here what my TTT would see. Ah, we goes in to the past to search for trade and try to analyse them with the TTT to see if we would come to their result so this day label indicator is good to save the time go to calendar checking which day of week. I modified so ppl can change text size.

Contribute to the GU prediction here
with help of BoE price could get back to 1.124, then critical due to time of external force, GU must get above 1.149, retest then could get higher or not .... Above 1.245 is critical safe water for GU
the issue is not BoE alone how much often they would/could pump, but the external forces, international incidents they wont rest until GU could fully recover
But there could be more in the game we dont really know who played it, the pound should have gone down max level 1.124 and mot landed at 1.06 like recently

Very important posts IMHO I collect marker from traders to not forgetting what they tell/teach will come back study more until I understand

Digger1 quarterlies square box and the fifties here 29/09/2022
heard he is one of the best Aussie traders
Bluesteel trading volatility here EU 29/09/2022
very expertly exploration on EU trading; BTMM
RickM about trading only the current last ticker, all history bars are irrelevant here
This method seems to require volume data, extra subscription for most recently trading activities