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Volman meets Burke or My journey with PA

  • #301
  • Sep 29, 2022 2:46pm Sep 29, 2022 2:46pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Spread betting in the UK ( UK citizen) is popular because the proceeds are tax free but you can only, as far as I know, trade CFD's. I have traded Futures ( Dow and Nasdaq) with US brokers with $40 margins ( you need to carefully research them) and was impressed by the tight spreads and speed of transactions. But EMSA ? regs. in UK now require much bigger margins to trade with spreadbet firms resulting in many going offshore to Australian firms or other countries to trade via CFD's or trying American Futures brokers. Many traders who stay...
You are mostly right, BUT you mix information, where the tax man expects traders to make too, Spread betting is spread betting, CFD is CFD; touch CFD you is conform to pay tax.
The main question is how the data are formed?
Are they plat form which provide spread betting trustworthy, as spread betting has similarity to binary option you bet it go down and going up, where they have found a lot of provide meddling with the data entry... how much of it is true? was it true? Only experienced users would know
  • #302
  • Sep 29, 2022 2:48pm Sep 29, 2022 2:48pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Spread betting in the UK ( UK citizen) is popular because the proceeds are tax free but you can only, as far as I know, trade CFD's. I have traded Futures ( Dow and Nasdaq) with US brokers with $40 margins ( you need to carefully research them) and was impressed by the tight spreads and speed of transactions. But EMSA ? regs. in UK now require much bigger margins to trade with spreadbet firms resulting in many going offshore to Australian firms or other countries to trade via CFD's or trying American Futures brokers. Many traders who stay...
My broker for futures, MES, is Amp. $40 margin per contract. Will trade gold through them at some point also, especially since this method works so well with it.

CFDs are not legal in the USA. Trading for a prop firm is treated more as contract work. Green Tax says it's a grey area as far as tax treatment. I have an evaluation with a prop firm going as we speak. Need to finish it up so I can at least start getting some money from it. And keep them for the charts. NY close charts. The spreads are super tight. Can scalp any about any pair. No clue if the CFD spreads are any good.

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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #303
  • Sep 29, 2022 2:56pm Sep 29, 2022 2:56pm
Quoting ntk
{quote} You are mostly right, BUT you mix information, where the tax man expects traders to make too, Spread betting is spread betting, CFD is CFD; touch CFD you is conform to pay tax. The main question is how the data are formed? Are they plat form which provide spread betting trustworthy, as spread betting has similarity to binary option you bet it go down and going up, where they have found a lot of provide meddling with the data entry... how much of it is true? was it true? Only experienced users would know
Sorry - I do not understand your post.
Hopefully this will clear things up :
Spread Bet (wagering £X per point or pip) = Tax free profit
CFD trading = TAX Liability on profits ( but can offset losses against tax)
https://www.ig.com/uk/spread-betting...E&gclsrc=aw.ds

Should clear things up.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #304
  • Sep 29, 2022 3:02pm Sep 29, 2022 3:02pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Sorry - I do not understand your post. Hopefully this will clear things up : Spread Bet (wagering £X per point or pip) = Tax free profit CFD trading = TAX Liability on profits ( but can offset losses against tax) https://www.ig.com/uk/spread-betting...E&gclsrc=aw.ds Should clear things up.
Nothing is tax free here (unless ...) waiting on them to tax me for flushing the toilet after I sh!t.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #305
  • Sep 29, 2022 3:07pm Sep 29, 2022 3:07pm
Quoting spzd
{quote} Nothing is tax free here (unless ...) waiting on them to tax me for flushing the toilet after I sh!t.
Don't give our Prime minister, Liz Truss, any ideas on how to raise more cash for the Uk economy
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #306
  • Sep 29, 2022 4:40pm Sep 29, 2022 4:40pm
GU doesnt stop giving, should be more to come
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  • #307
  • Sep 29, 2022 5:09pm Sep 29, 2022 5:09pm
Quoting T721
GU doesnt stop giving, should be more to come {image} {image}
I saw your msg 23:00 how could you know GU was at 1.1122 would give "some more" .... 5 min later it just went to 1.1175 in one M5 candle????? show one finger up to the sky
  • #308
  • Edited 5:47pm Sep 29, 2022 5:31pm | Edited 5:47pm
Quoting ntk
{quote} I saw your msg 23:00 how could you know GU was at 1.1122 would give "some more" .... 5 min later it just went to 1.1175 in one M5 candle????? show one finger up to the sky
Just lucky i guess but i have been trading almost 30yrs. Still more to come if BOE keeps buying bonds
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  • #309
  • Sep 29, 2022 5:53pm Sep 29, 2022 5:53pm
Quoting T721
{quote} Just lucky i guess but i have been trading almost 30yrs. Still more to come if BOE keeps buying bonds {image}
Intervention comes in many forms.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #310
  • Sep 29, 2022 5:54pm Sep 29, 2022 5:54pm
EU doing what it should
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  • #311
  • Edited 8:36pm Sep 29, 2022 8:23pm | Edited 8:36pm
Quoting T721
{quote} Just lucky i guess but i have been trading almost 30yrs. Still more to come if BOE keeps buying bonds {image}
No disrespect. You have shown me the way you trade in an video call so I could learn from you. I appreciate your generousity very much.
But this move, on one hand I respect you but on the other was very surprised you expect more of the rise and the rise did happen in the later hour London already closed and US soon closed too.
This move although with your statement that the BoE buying bonds maybe backed, but something in its format is wrong, I am not a even a student of Wyckoff but dont you see the missing half right, do you see the test of strength do you see retest, the spring? and that after a prolonged down move, a proper down move 3 levels down, Eliott wave if you want, and on the break out of the down trend this presentation? very careful it will move down a lot harder, dhort and deadly stoss... I dont trust this market
You mention BoE buying bonds, could you pls share where I can read it I dont see in the news, in calendar, even the ECB spoken not strongly positive in a intervention of the exchange rate
An other question you or maybe your colleagues would know "Yuan at the Mercy of Overseas Traders Puts China on Alert" where is the Yuan or Ruble trade, I can not see it with my 3 brokers.

With EU I agree more with you on the expected moves, it does look more balanced, Nevertheless BUT I still think, there is soon another move soon deep below 0.960 to punish the easy believer, as nothing really backing for a EU recovery, not much less important why MM not used the recent Italian election not crashing the EU market that surprised me. wonder how long until the MM playing that card, only lammern the weaken $ is the holy ground of recovering EU rate is much to whishywhasy MM's style for me.
  • #312
  • Sep 29, 2022 11:04pm Sep 29, 2022 11:04pm
Hi Mark & gang,

Everyone has their view of market behaviours and what makes it tick (a pun, sorry )

How we each trade a market is based on what works, and has worked for us - is all.

Wishing everyone a great end to the week, I've closed shop for the day.

Remember it will close past NY final today as months end also, be on your toes (for any late mischief).

(I've closed now for the day, week AND month lol, good trading all )

cheers
Pete

.
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  • #313
  • Sep 30, 2022 4:11am Sep 30, 2022 4:11am
Still on Gold:
Missed a Double Bottom Long in the pre UK equity market open hour but got the long off support bounce -pre open level and off pin in equity hour.
I was expecting a PFH type of break to break out and then switch short but the pin put paid to that idea as well as my channel bias.
But loads of price thrashing around at levels around 22 Sept and reasons to be cautious. No idea what to do if I had stayed in after 10am had I not closed trade?
Finished at 10am for the weekend.
Have a good weekend all and any comments on improving my analysis is welcome
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #314
  • Sep 30, 2022 4:54am Sep 30, 2022 4:54am
Didn't trade the Dax today but marked up a chart for criticism by the Stacey Burke type traders here.
marked a PFH fail ( expect to short after breaking level ( didn't break a structure low maybe) - did I confuse a trending market with a PFH guys ?
Noticed price stalled around 15 minute high off left of chart ( Around 22 to 29th Sept - TRUSS effect maybe) big gap down from there just touched by price this UK morning?
Back on Monday - Enjoy your weekend guys
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #315
  • Sep 30, 2022 7:16am Sep 30, 2022 7:16am
Quoting turnip15
Didn't trade the Dax today but marked up a chart for criticism by the Stacey Burke type traders here. marked a PFH fail ( expect to short after breaking level ( didn't break a structure low maybe) - did I confuse a trending market with a PFH guys ? Noticed price stalled around 15 minute high off left of chart ( Around 22 to 29th Sept - TRUSS effect maybe) big gap down from there just touched by price this UK morning? Back on Monday - Enjoy your weekend guys {image}
Not sure if that was a PFH. No break in structure as price kept staircasing up.

Been thinking on this and will find it in a vid somewhere, if I recall correctly a break in structure is part of the creation of the PFH. In his videos he points out PFHs and PFLs but never goes into the details of the criteria. (If any of that makes sense.)
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #316
  • Sep 30, 2022 7:18am Sep 30, 2022 7:18am
Quoting spzd
{quote} Not sure if that was a PFH. No break in structure as price kept staircasing up. Been thinking on this and will find it in a vid somewhere, if I recall correctly a break in structure is part of the creation of the PFH. In his videos he points out PFHs and PFLs but never goes into the details of the criteria. (If any of that makes sense.)
The only structure break is the 2 bar sequence right above PFH.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #317
  • Sep 30, 2022 10:06am Sep 30, 2022 10:06am
Quoting spzd
{quote} The only structure break is the 2 bar sequence right above PFH.
Been shadowing SP500 and marked in break of PFLow? which then ( I think) - reversed as per SB and broke Market Structure. Next it did the usual retrace, hit a level
( Previous 15 Minute SWING LOW - off chart to the left) and the long trade would be from one of the two yellow rectangles ?
I would favour the upper yellow rectangle for a long because the green bar clears a 50 level ?

In summary - is this a better or more appropriate PFL trade?

Ranging now but I finish US session at 4pm UK time.

Enjoy your weekend all.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #318
  • Sep 30, 2022 10:30am Sep 30, 2022 10:30am
As I said after completing Volman's book, I have switched my charts to M5. This, as everything, is done with hindsight. Even so, you should clearly see how this areas form. As you see them after the fact, you should be able to discern while it happens. And if you are having some troubles, take the time to study enough charts where when you are live you can see the patterns forming.

Here is the GBP_JPY as it lloked to me this am (0700 CT [0800 ET]). At 0655 a new low was made - with the marked LOD being overtaken an hour and a half ago.

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Here is a pic of the progress of lower lows heading into the US session. The base definition for a lower low is a low with a higher low the bar before and a higher low the bar after. A higher high is a high with a lower high the bar before and a lower higher the bar after. Every high and low is a 3-bar process. The significance of that particular high or low is determined by the PA that comes after.

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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #319
  • Sep 30, 2022 10:40am Sep 30, 2022 10:40am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Been shadowing SP500 and marked in break of PFLow? which then ( I think) - reversed as per SB and broke Market Structure. Next it did the usual retrace, hit a level ( Previous 15 Minute SWING LOW - off chart to the left) and the long trade would be from one of the two yellow rectangles ? I would favour the upper yellow rectangle for a long because the green bar clears a 50 level ? In summary - is this a better or more appropriate PFL trade? Ranging now but I finish US session at 4pm UK time. Enjoy your weekend all. {image}

The higher low was the structure break. Where you pointed out structure break is more like resistance area. I call them areas of interest. A place that may or may not have an effect on price. {just the way I see things}

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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #320
  • Sep 30, 2022 11:36am Sep 30, 2022 11:36am
Then it becomes a wait for the signal. This is the hardest part for me. Don't know why ...

1) Is the confirmation for the low. Further PA confirmed it was the LOD. One more hit off the level and off it goes.

2) Retest of a higher low.

3) This is a signal. I call it a piercing line, but I think this one is more a harami. From my POV the bullish signals of this type are all variations of the piercing line (PL) and bearish signals are all variations of the dark cloud cover (DCC). This low is not set. Price is near the LOD and this is a signal, so I take it. Not all work out.

4) Is also a PL. It had a 25 pip DD but would have worked for those who use a bit bigger stop. This would have been a loss for me.

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Target was the PHOD. There was another entry shortly after this one concluded. This large pin-bar that hie off the MA. that went for about +100.

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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
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