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Wednesday, FOMC aka Powell's day.
It's been a week since I last traded. Back from my travel, and nothing has changed. Range bound.
Saw too much fireworks and popularity contest this morning, decided to skip and not participate, so to not add fuel to fire.
EURUSD price wise, we're in a long term consolidation. Short term accumulation (18 Aug to 13 Sep) had completed.
Medium term accumulation (since 11 Aug, from 1.036) is still in progress.
Asian session volume had returned to 80% pre-Japan intervention scares.
FOMC: expected 75 bps hike. If 1% hike realises, market will buy USD. 75 bps or 50 bps hike both will be met with USD selling pressure.
Really, nothing new on the geo-political front. Always the same show, the same actor *threatening* to do something, other sides fire warnings, escalate then diffuse tensions. It's becoming an international pastime now.
Either way, Europe needs USD for trade, and they need it cheaply. US doesn't intervene in FX market. But, there's always this "swap" club members doing tricks behind the scene. Worse comes to worse, if USD becomes so overvalued, that certain countries on the brink of sovereign default, they'll just bail them out, devaluing the dollar. Even before that, any headlines on job layoff into October will be sufficient to stop further advances on DXY.
No expectation really. Except that everytime this Euro depreciates, just another buying "cheaply" opportunity for me. Accumulating.
Best,
Cat
It's been a week since I last traded. Back from my travel, and nothing has changed. Range bound.
Saw too much fireworks and popularity contest this morning, decided to skip and not participate, so to not add fuel to fire.
EURUSD price wise, we're in a long term consolidation. Short term accumulation (18 Aug to 13 Sep) had completed.
Medium term accumulation (since 11 Aug, from 1.036) is still in progress.
Asian session volume had returned to 80% pre-Japan intervention scares.
FOMC: expected 75 bps hike. If 1% hike realises, market will buy USD. 75 bps or 50 bps hike both will be met with USD selling pressure.
Really, nothing new on the geo-political front. Always the same show, the same actor *threatening* to do something, other sides fire warnings, escalate then diffuse tensions. It's becoming an international pastime now.
Either way, Europe needs USD for trade, and they need it cheaply. US doesn't intervene in FX market. But, there's always this "swap" club members doing tricks behind the scene. Worse comes to worse, if USD becomes so overvalued, that certain countries on the brink of sovereign default, they'll just bail them out, devaluing the dollar. Even before that, any headlines on job layoff into October will be sufficient to stop further advances on DXY.
No expectation really. Except that everytime this Euro depreciates, just another buying "cheaply" opportunity for me. Accumulating.
Best,
Cat
- #157,284
- Sep 21, 2022 6:22am Sep 21, 2022 6:22am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Liverpool's KOP | 8,033 Posts
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
- #157,286
- Sep 21, 2022 6:27am Sep 21, 2022 6:27am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,258 Posts
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #157,287
- Sep 21, 2022 6:30am Sep 21, 2022 6:30am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Liverpool's KOP | 8,033 Posts
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
- #157,290
- Sep 21, 2022 7:06am Sep 21, 2022 7:06am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Liverpool's KOP | 8,033 Posts
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
- #157,294
- Sep 21, 2022 7:40am Sep 21, 2022 7:40am
- Joined Aug 2022 | Status: Still not a pro in Trading | 1,198 Posts
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- #157,295
- Sep 21, 2022 7:46am Sep 21, 2022 7:46am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,258 Posts
{quote} Dear To the north or to the south ????
*Since I wrote "polar express", those who read the novel will know...
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #157,296
- Sep 21, 2022 7:56am Sep 21, 2022 7:56am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Liverpool's KOP | 8,033 Posts
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
- #157,297
- Edited 8:39am Sep 21, 2022 8:23am | Edited 8:39am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Name real with real own way | 23,414 Posts
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
Lets see what this week will do..-The market broke structure and created a higher high..
-Liquidity and a imbalance below current price.. Option 1: a 60 pip sell of before going up. Option 2: bulls take full control and will push price to the imbalance above the current price. Option 3: DXY bullish, EURUSD bearish till 0.98800. Be aware that below parity there are still prices to retest so in my opinion we still need to go below 1.000 before going up bigtime. Be carefull buying above 1.0135. DXY showing a retail...
The market chosen option 3. As always, having a backup plan is the only way to keep emotions in control..
Now, marketupdate: 0.98800 area is tested so my plan is to prepare myself for a big bullish move. Big as in 270 pips at least.
The next couple hours and the next 2 days can give us some nice price action
New imbalances are created and need to be filled, DXY still going rocketmode.. But will
Trade safe
Think in number 9
- #157,300
- Sep 21, 2022 10:00am Sep 21, 2022 10:00am
- Joined Aug 2022 | Status: Still not a pro in Trading | 1,198 Posts
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