vsa with Malcolm

EJ short..

Sept 12th with climatic volume at the highs.

I did see the 2 UTs during Asia and I didn't trust them. If you think about it, an UT is a violent move to trigger stops for early sellers. If that is true the market doesn't need double UT because the first UT would've triggered the stops, plus price as very close to the previous NS low.

For my entry, I saw that the huge spike in volume which rejected the low of the climatic volume so I went in. Not a great entry, I did need a wide stop for this one.

Thanks as always @Anotan. I tried to force the markets into a realistic window I could trade IRL, but it doesn't work like that . I will stick to the Daily chart for live trading Forex, but in terms of backtesting, I will overhaul my process to have a more holistic approach like you suggested. I also appreciate the marked up chart and have saved that as a reference for to keep me honest.

@CyberForex I put you on ignore because your posts typically have little-to-no educational value and are better suited for a personal journal than a community message board. I have tried once subtly (and once not-so-subtly) to encourage you to break down your VSA reasoning. You seem to be mostly concerned with being a gatekeeper of knowledge (rarely annotating your charts, telling ppl to DM you if they have questions, requesting that people bend the knee before you answer them) which is contrary to all of the regular posters in this thread who share in-depth chart breakdowns in spite of their tenure or the occasional repetitiveness of the questions.

Speaking for myself, I have no ill-will against you, but since your posts typically only show an entry and an exit, they are at best a distraction on my journey towards consistency.

Hi,

i try this one.... Lets see if that is working.

USDCHF M5

Best
Steph

Re-Accumulation???

There are a few people who trade Wyckoff, but they're not very active.

But feel free to post as much as you like. BTW I agree with your analysis on UChf, that widespread up bar on H1 from Sept 13th CPI data looks bullish.

Indeed ... in this case it was working ... TP reached

A lesson that took me waaay too long to learn is that, in forex at least, these ultra wide spread up bars closing at or near the highs are bullish.

I don't want to put a hard definition on what is ultra wide, but to give you an idea these bars should be by far the widest bars in the past 200-300 bars.

133 pips across 3 days is roughly 45 pips per day average, not bad for just sitting there watching paint dry.

ECad..

You can trade the right edge of the chart, but you have to treat your trades like scalps.

I did get lucky on this trade, but normally if you're just trading the right edge of the chart you're only looking to be in a trade for a few bars. I kinda think this is where Tom got his simple trending system, he only allowed 1 bar to go against him which makes me think he didn't hold trades very long.

Gold, highly repressed by manipulation of US an EU Currencies.

Below is the cheapest and most expensive cost of production by mines/companies. Ideally Gold should be priced above most expensive production cost /oz,

Might see a nice drop on EU.

Price tagged last week's CPI bar and price seems to be coming off at the moment.

I didn't mark it on the chart, but if you look at the first rejection we saw today, 3 bars after that is a failed test. With both the rejection and failed test I felt confident enough to go short.


UCad long as well. I always feel crazy when I mention that I use Asia as UCad's home session, but here we are again.

I closed UCad longs.

I was aiming for price to run yesterday's high, but the H1 bar is about to close and I don't want to give up 58 pips in the bag for another potential 20 pips.

Edit - UC just tagged yesterday's high, so I missed out on a bit of profit. Still though, never a bad idea to TP after a widespread up bar.


Planning on leaving EU short open with price reacting so well to that CPI bar. Usually when price reacts to a big news event you can expect a big move plus taking into account that the past 4 trading days could be potential re-distribution, so for the rest of the week I'll be looking to add to my short. I did add a scalp trade off a 2nd failed test and closed it for 25 pips just to book some profits off this setup.

Keep an eye on CADJPY.

Yesterday was a ND, its hard to see because it dipped below the previous bar, but there is weakness on the highs, plus a few days ago I was talking about how xxxJPY was over extended for the year.

Also looks like AJ is following CJ's lead.

^ UJ looks especially juicy as well. Lord knows I've been stalking it for months now. I think the USD reverting from being excessively strong + the Yen reverting from being excessively weak means that the pair will have the most volatility or risk/reward out of the lot but just guessing.


I've been stalking the Futures Forex charts recently as I think the volume is clearer on the Daily. But just an FYI that my chart is inverted (JU) compared to UJ as a result:

1. Selloff. Bears in clear control
2. Half the spread but more volume & closing off the lows. Buyers coming in
3. Volume drops off on the move higher. There's Strength in the Background so I'd classify this as 'No Buying Pressure' instead of 'No Demand'
4. Short-term weakness on the last bar meant that this bar was more likely to fail. Sellers reappear and the bar closes off the highs
5. Test bar
6. Test bar fails w/ a Trap Upmove. Bears are showing their face again (Side Note: I took this trade IRL & lost $$$ )
7. Absorption bar w/ buyers showing their strength. Also, shortening of thrust & trend channel in oversold territory. Given the excess volume, supply might still be present tho...
8. Test bar suggesting supply has been removed. Ideal time to entry in retrospect but I was trigger shy after the earlier stop-out
9. No Buying Pressure. Price might need to consolidate
10. Test bar
11. Similar bar range as the last but heavier volume... Covert buying? Jako McPorker talks about a 'test -> fakeout -> breakout' setup and this might be it. I am placing a buy order above this bar.

The FOMC meeting on Wednesday could create another trap upmove like #6, but I'm willing to put money on it and find out

Looking at UCad Daily,

Today you absolutely do not want to be short on this pair. Yesterday price trapped sellers who tried to go short off the daily pin bar, so even if you see intra day selling today its a smart idea to skip those shorts.

Now about yesterday, I bought at the lows of an UT. If you see an UT on Daily but drop down to an intra day time frame with clear buying there usually isn't a problem buying that UT as long as you're above the daily open. If you're below the daily open with intra day buying, might be a good idea to skip that trade.

The only thing I can say about the trap up move was that the intra day volume didn't look right.

From your daily analysis you were looking for shorts (in spot forex) but the volume wasn't on the bar you'd expect it to be. For selling you would've expected the high volume to be on that hidden UT and instead it was on the next bar.

Looks like CADJPY is heading south, continuation trend

This feels like pandemic trading again.

Follow the trend and get your orders to BE and see what sticks.

EU

Caught a 20 pip loss on the rally from Sept 22nd.



ECad

Might not survive this.

Closed EU out today.

Today in mid Asia there was a massive 170 pip drop on EU on, well climatic volume is almost an understatement for this time of day. Probably not today but in the next coming days/weeks watch how price reacts to today's PA. The time of day and the amount of volume of today's PA should have your trader sense tingling.

This big drop was foreseeable, but I'm a little surprised about how intense it was. If you see climatic volume created by a big news event and you can clearly see price is reacting to the HLC, then set yourself up for a big move.

Hi,

I spot something on EURGBP. The H1 Analysis looks short to me. On the right side of the range. I switched to M1 and just waited for something. I expect a strong downmove the nxt days and entered on M1.

Lets see, a little bit to late but R/R seems still okay to me.



Best
Steph