{quote} Hi Ata - time to exit long?
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #156,881
- Sep 15, 2022 9:47am Sep 15, 2022 9:47am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,265 Posts
- #156,882
- Sep 15, 2022 9:48am Sep 15, 2022 9:48am
- Joined Jun 2016 | Status: Sharing EUR/USD Ideas and Insights | 15,498 Posts
{quote} I got to say that more money is to be made if you play their game right. Past few months close to 85% success rate anticipating its moves during big options expiries.
Congrats, I don't know how you do it!
There are some periods in EURUSD and option prices that you can make serious money and easy with just a limit order and some hours a day in any direction, but when this period passes (consolidation) then the system will fail. So, watch that, a series of trades will always bust in the end.
This is at least from my experience by positioning at the price +/- 1 pips away with a limit order after the expiry and by targeting 2 times the risk. In the end I stoped, because I was seeing that something was going on wrong in my results and from how the price was behaving with previous action around the levels and away of them.
I still can not find a consistent system that wins, but only buying, or selling at previous highs and lows in weekly, daily charts. Its good to take trades only at the favored direction.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
- #156,883
- Edited 9:58am Sep 15, 2022 9:48am | Edited 9:58am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Name real with real own way | 23,415 Posts
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
- #156,884
- Sep 15, 2022 10:00am Sep 15, 2022 10:00am
- Joined Sep 2018 | Status: Trader Man | 2,123 Posts
Risking the purchase with a tight Sl, let's see if the bulls are in stock from here...
"No pain no gain"
- #156,886
- Sep 15, 2022 10:07am Sep 15, 2022 10:07am
- Joined Jun 2016 | Status: Sharing EUR/USD Ideas and Insights | 15,498 Posts
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
- #156,887
- Sep 15, 2022 10:07am Sep 15, 2022 10:07am
[quote=Js3mwtRc;14138865]{quote} Congrats, I don't know how you do it! There are some periods in EURUSD and option prices that you can make serious money and easy with just a limit order and some hours a day in any direction, but when this period passes (consolidation) then the system will fail. So, watch that, a series of trades will always bust in the end. This is at least from my experience by positioning at the price +/- 1 pips away with a limit order after the expiry and by targeting 2 times the risk. In the end I stoped, because I was seeing that something was going on wrong in my results and from how the price was behaving with previous action around the levels and away of them. I still can not find a consistent system that wins, but only buying, or selling at previous highs and lows in weekly, daily charts. Its good to take trades only at the favored direction.[/quote
I mainly watch the PA around 11 am and on, study all the charts here (thank you) and compare with the PA all the way up to NY open, when I start watching the DOM very closely. That is where the "fight" (if there is one between the issuer and buyer(s) ) starts to take place creating the "magnet" PA. Also if their are positive news and the currency is being suppressed it helps pulling the trigger - You may have noticed sometimes during these events that price indeed exceeds the target and within the last few minutes they drop it to hit it. Lately this has been happening a lot. It is all a game and the dealers sometimes are in cahoots with the buyers, trying to figure out how they get repaid because to pay out all that money means they are hedging is guaranteed.
There are some periods in EURUSD and option prices that you can make serious money and easy with just a limit order and some hours a day in any direction, but when this period passes (consolidation) then the system will fail. So, watch that, a series of trades will always bust in the end. This is at least from my experience by positioning at the price +/- 1 pips away with a limit order after the expiry and by targeting 2 times the risk. In the end I stoped, because I was seeing that something was going on wrong in my results and from how the price was behaving with previous action around the levels and away of them. I still can not find a consistent system that wins, but only buying, or selling at previous highs and lows in weekly, daily charts. Its good to take trades only at the favored direction.[/quoteI mainly watch the PA around 11 am and on, study all the charts here (thank you) and compare with the PA all the way up to NY open, when I start watching the DOM very closely. That is where the "fight" (if there is one between the issuer and buyer(s) ) starts to take place creating the "magnet" PA. Also if their are positive news and the currency is being suppressed it helps pulling the trigger - You may have noticed sometimes during these events that price indeed exceeds the target and within the last few minutes they drop it to hit it. Lately this has been happening a lot. It is all a game and the dealers sometimes are in cahoots with the buyers, trying to figure out how they get repaid because to pay out all that money means they are hedging is guaranteed.
- #156,891
- Sep 15, 2022 10:27am Sep 15, 2022 10:27am
- Joined Jun 2016 | Status: Sharing EUR/USD Ideas and Insights | 15,498 Posts
...{quote} Congrats, I don't know how you do it!
I don't trade the DOM, just watching price action and using probabilities from my trading, but I know well this rapid price action and have studied it a lot from my past years of trading. One thing I can say, is that by following what the bigger players would do (my theory is always follow what the winner does and avoid the loser) and by getting "into their mind" then, its a win win situation.
Well done, thanks!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
- #156,892
- Sep 15, 2022 10:33am Sep 15, 2022 10:33am
- Joined Sep 2018 | Status: Trader Man | 2,123 Posts
"No pain no gain"
- #156,893
- Sep 15, 2022 10:51am Sep 15, 2022 10:51am
Quick update.
Took one and half day off for leisure travel. I'm extending my travel, so won't be back until Tuesday. Monday, London takes a break, so Tuesday.
Now, I did not take any trade since yesterday morning. There's no coincidence.
Japan has fired I think 3 or 4 warning shots already, that they're going to intervene in the FX market.
Asian sessions had heeded that warning, since Monday.
Many dealers, funds and securities firms in major Asia centres had paused their FX trades in anticipation.
It's a work day in Asia, but EURUSD volume during the 8 hours Asian session was lower than US labor day holiday (circled, arrowed in chart)
Intervention is unprecedented. They're not going to do that "unilaterarly". Tokyo was seeking informed consent from other G7 finance ministers that it's preparing to sell the US dollar. The three Euro area G7 nations had nodded. In the US, it's likely Treasury Sec Yellen would give permission, given her "dove" track record as Fed chair.
In addition to selling US Treasury securities, they may tap into their FX reserves, with its USD cash holdings valued at $1 trillion. They may not sell all of them or at once. Say, a $30 bn flooding the FX market in an hour, we're looking at a 5% spike/dip.
When? Nobody knows. How many times will they pull the trigger? Nobody knows too.
There's no coincidence that the price for EURUSD barely moved post-CPI on Tuesday.
No price projection on my chart today. If they intervene, models and projections will be torn into pieces, short-term.
Have a nice weekend.
Best,
Cat
Took one and half day off for leisure travel. I'm extending my travel, so won't be back until Tuesday. Monday, London takes a break, so Tuesday.
Now, I did not take any trade since yesterday morning. There's no coincidence.
Japan has fired I think 3 or 4 warning shots already, that they're going to intervene in the FX market.
Asian sessions had heeded that warning, since Monday.
Many dealers, funds and securities firms in major Asia centres had paused their FX trades in anticipation.
It's a work day in Asia, but EURUSD volume during the 8 hours Asian session was lower than US labor day holiday (circled, arrowed in chart)
Intervention is unprecedented. They're not going to do that "unilaterarly". Tokyo was seeking informed consent from other G7 finance ministers that it's preparing to sell the US dollar. The three Euro area G7 nations had nodded. In the US, it's likely Treasury Sec Yellen would give permission, given her "dove" track record as Fed chair.
In addition to selling US Treasury securities, they may tap into their FX reserves, with its USD cash holdings valued at $1 trillion. They may not sell all of them or at once. Say, a $30 bn flooding the FX market in an hour, we're looking at a 5% spike/dip.
When? Nobody knows. How many times will they pull the trigger? Nobody knows too.
There's no coincidence that the price for EURUSD barely moved post-CPI on Tuesday.
No price projection on my chart today. If they intervene, models and projections will be torn into pieces, short-term.
Have a nice weekend.
Best,
Cat
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- #156,895
- Edited 12:08pm Sep 15, 2022 11:17am | Edited 12:08pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Feb 2019 | 1,453 Posts
V I C T O R I O U S 00100, fly zone ? rocket been launched...
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- #156,897
- Sep 15, 2022 11:55am Sep 15, 2022 11:55am
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,577 Posts
...because you never know - until you do!
- #156,899
- Sep 15, 2022 12:08pm Sep 15, 2022 12:08pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Trader | 3,179 Posts
Holy Betting Grail strategy
